Opinion of the Previous Poster's Signature V: You Only Live Twice

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do you know the probabilities of the Congress in 2022 it's a 50 percent Divided Govt 235/218 Speaker McCarthy and ,51/55 D Senate Leader Schumer, 40 percent chance of a Secularist Trifecta 218/217 DH and 55 Senate seats and 10 percent chance of an all R Congress 245 RH and 54 RSen forget it Rs you aren't gonna win everything

D's will get to 60 seats with the Senate map before Rs get to 55 seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The maps are gonna be blank on EDay there are no ratings I am looking forward to Tim Ryan being Senator

It's a 50 percent chance it's an RH and DS a 40 percent chance a Secularist Trifecta and only a 10 percent chance Rs get 245 H and 54 S

Actually the R Congress and SECULAR Trifecta have switched places in Jan it was a 40 percent chance of R Congress and 10 percent chance of a Secularist Trifecta now it's reverse because Gas prices are going down

But, I assume Rs despite there hasn't been one good poll for them since Dobbs are gonna keep making the case for an R Congress 245 H and 54 Senate which won't happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said on another thread the problem with looking at Approvals which Trump never was at 50 percent and the Ukraine war is still a drag on Biden not being above 50 is that on a Prez race, Prez Election usually achieve 50 percent on EDay

On the Congressional ballot it's usually tied at 45, there is no need for parties to be at 50 percent but D's did win in 2018 49/44

Sherrod Brown was leading similarly to Tim Ryan 46/41 in 2018 and s the point is, 50 percent isn't the end all be all we had the best ever midterm in 2018 and the GCB was tied 45 like it is now, at least Biden achieved 50 percent Honeymoon status, Trump never had a 50 percent Approvals, the reason why people like Collins overperformed and it was ranked choice voting but she is DOA in 2026 to Golden is because Rs are 9 percent unemployment gave out stimulus checks we haven't gotten stimulus checks since last March because SSDI is going up next yr another 100 and Unemployment was increased that's why there aren't stimulus checks except tax credits, but Newsom at the height of Pandemic didn't give everyone a Stimulus that's why he is at 29 against Harris and Biden, and Carville already confirmed Biden is running in 24 and told me to continue donating to Ryan

So, Tim Ryan can win Brown was similarly to Ryan number in polling Brown was polling 46/41 just like Ryan and so is Mark Kelly 47/41 and Abbott is only leading 45/40 if we won KY and Bevin was tracking similar to Abbott 45/40 not just that DeSantis is polling low too to Crist 51/49 Crist is leading, KY is an R plus 20 then we can certainly win TX, FL and OH where Abbott is polling like Bevin 45/40 and KY is R plus 20 and TX is an R plus 6, voters like sending D's to Sen or Gov and having R state legislature, when Crist or Fried are election they will have an R state legislature to check them

We aren't gonna sweep everything, but with a Prez map we aren't gonna get swept

Rs are struggling because no more stimulus checks , no 9 percent unemployment like last time, they went back to tax cuts for the rich their favorite theme again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't getting 54 Senate seats and 245 H seats that's obvious now and Dobbs, killing of AL Zawahri just add to our wave insurance it's a 303 but wave insurance only means in case the D's won or probably not automatic but with Stacy Abrams tied with Kemp the rankings are flawed because Cook just moved GA to Lean R and they still have outside of Cook WI as Lean R ridiculous but Rs aren't winning AZ, PA, or NV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kleefisch lost WI isn't Lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senator Elect Barnes and Senator Elect Fetterman because Kleefisch and McCormick lost Females came out and voted in the R primary for Michaels and I, Bailey over Sullivan and Cox over Schultz to give D's a better chance in GE

As I said it's 150 Men and 150 females and females like to monkey with R primaries the minorities was a contribution to Rs loses but white females whom are 100 M total votes contribute more to Rs Losing, we just lost in 1980/84 because Minorities didn't vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_aug22?fullbrowser

Biden according to Rassy polls have posted it's best Approvals since Sept 2021 Cali recall it's not an R wave development it's a blue wave development


https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/prez_track_aug22?fullbrowser

47/52 same as 49/53 July 2021

38% of voters think country is on the right track not 25% that we see in the media polls

Biden is tracking the same as Trump was his line is tracking the same so all these Rs keep wanting Trump Biden is tracking the same as TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kristi Noem may lose because she is embroiled in a scandal in the wave she only won by 4 last time so even SD isn't safe thanks Pat Ryan your victory is Appreciated

But, the R party hasn't offered anything since Trump gave out stimulus checks that's why they overperformed last time they offered stimulus checks

They voted against Voting Rights so they can ride with Gerrymandering in the SCOTUS, but this isn't 2010/2014 when we had no Pandemic and Obamacare was unpopular

But they don't poll AK, IN, SC or AR or TN because they don't have Prez polling, hopefully they poll this it's probably 42/34 like OK but that's how it was last time Billy Joel Sutton and he lost by only 4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ted-cruz-says-theres-real-132159525.html

Cruz now says D's can sweep Midterm with Debt forgiveness AK and NY 19 just proved just because a race is Lean R doesn't mean anything that's why Steve Konraki has WI, PA, OH, PA, FL, AZ and NV as battlegrounds

We won wave insurance seats on special and users still keep going back to Biden Approvals it won't matter when we vote in 4 weeks Early vote on


I said a blue tsunami can happen in October, people are still struggling and Rs are offering nothing like the Contract with America balanced budgets and TL they are running on Gerrymandering

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a gut feeling Kristi Noem is gonna lose she is embroiled in a scandal she is the only Female R Gov next to Lake whom is running for AZ, Rick Berg and Heidi Hiedikampt looms very large in the Dakota's, and Thune can go down in a blue wave

It's unthinkable but it can happen she only won 50/46 over Billy Joe Sutton she is now vulnerable  and the polls that came out were 42/34 before EDay

SD has a 1/3 chance now of flipping

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Petolta loses, it'll be fraud.

No it's not it's due to Dobbs, Abortion is being ended in many states except for IL, NY, MN and CALI  those are the sanctuaries of abortion but you can adopt as we'll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If TRUMP wins by 14 pts in OH with Espionage Biden with Fetterman and Shapiro is gonna win by 30 pts that's how off Emerson is on OH, it's possible Biden wins PA by 3o because Wolf won by 17

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's now lead on GCB Wall Street Journal 47/43 41% Approvals don't matter it's a 303 map with wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are gonna get better not worse for D's duration Early VOTING , don't think that polls are getting better lol Fetterman was never gonna win 51/30 and neither is Whitmer if Trump wins OH by 15 after Espionage the. Biden with Fetterman will win PA by 30 since Wolf won by 17 obviously I am exaggerating but make Biden and Fetterman wins PA 100/o if Trump wins OH by 15 after Espionage, I guarentee Trump won't win OH by 15 Karl Rove told Trump to concede said Trump is in big trouble of indictment

That means Trump won't win OH by 14

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know I did those same polls and go to a Female Law school most white female lawyers are D unlike their white male counterpart that are often R they say take R polls with a grain of salt 2016 and before insurrection if an R is up 3 they will win post 2016 and thanks to VBM if an R is up 3 the D win Beshear, Evers, Ossoff all came back from deficits and Molinaro and Palin cut into D leads after VBM counted because why 300k Provisions ballots come from college students in between homes Grannie, moms and Dorm life, when I was EDay judge they say what precinct I vote in

My Constitution 8th grade teacher was Blk and Sophomore Constitution law teacher was white females. They said Females and Blks didn't vote during DIxiecrats era well Blk females didn't Blk men voted R, it were white men that voted fior Jefferson, 1920, whom was a Dixiecrat that's why females and Blks and Latinos and Muslims don't like Jefferson he owned 600 slaves

That's why Rubio up 1 or Crist down by 3 means Demings is actually up due to Provisions ballots FL is the only state and NC 2020 that bucked the provisions ballots trend where Scott, and DeSantis won close races but Walker, Perdue and Bevin all lost in provisions ballots

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't assured the H best to make wave insurance map after AK Special, Rs are ripping Ranked choice voting and they won in 2020 with Collins but she won't be lucky in 26 she endorsed losing LePage and she negotiated Stimulus checks last time, Rs are against Entitlement since then

Everyone forget OH is a populist state Dennis KUCINICH was elected to Ohio that's why it's trending D again, that's why S-SEN.SHERROD BROWN THE MOST LIBERAL MEMBER OF SEN GOT ELECTED 3* THAT IS NO ACCIDENT POPULIST DENNIS KUCINICH AND POPULIST Traficant

SO STOP SAYING RED APPALACHIAN IS AUTOMATIC R WE HAVE WARNER, KAINE, BESHEAR AND BROWN AS WELL AS KUCINICH AND JIM TRAFICANT

Again some D's THAT MAKE PREDICTION MAPS don't care about wave insurance they don't believe in Blk and Brown are the balance of power, NOT THE MAJORITY they tell you that in College Civics and Reagan got elected without enough Blks and Brown that would have voted for Kennedy because Cali WHICH IS LATINO AND BLK voted for Nixon and Reagan and would of voted for Bobby and Teddy Kennedy and Blks return to polls in 1988/1992 and Bill Clinton won, John Kennedy lost Cali by .5 v Nixon and would of won it with Goldwater

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN on Eday FROM DEWINE WINNING BY 15 TO SHAPIRO'S WINNING BY 17 AND CRIST WINNING BY 1/2 PTS

It's very likely we can get a 2012 Election rack up Sen and Govs and Rs take the H

Biden is already at 50 he is winning 50/44 against Trump that's 50%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the D's said TRAFALGAR is A plus because they have Vance leading over Ryan but now that Hochul is close to Zeldin not ahead by 20 it's trash, both Newsom and Hochul are bad Governor's because rents are thru the roof and these are the most expensive places to live it's too many homeless people, shelters reject people due to Covid

On top of it, migrants keep coming thru the border there are no Section 8 vouchers because they gave migration the vouchers before the Pandemic

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook.didmt change his ratings but he said on MSNBC D's can replicate 2012/ lose the H and win OH, NC and FL SEN AND FL GOV, /so Rs thinking OH we're gonna win MT, OH WV and win the Sen back in 2024, first of all we did better in the H from 2010/12 because Obama was back on the ballot in 2012 we will do better with Biden back on the ballot in 24, Secondly Biden was Veep in 2012 and Thirdly Brown, Tester and Manchin have never lost an Election I said I have a gut feeling we're gonna win OH Sen I don't know about BEASLEY or Demings but if Ryan wins that's good enough because that means Red Appalachian is populist meaning Beshear, Brown, Tester, Casey, Kaine and Manchin can win their next Election

I expect us to win WI, PA and OH and GA goes to a runoff for 53/47 SENATE
But it's possible Beasley or Demings win and Gwen Graham will run against Rick Scott definitely if DeSantis or Rubio Loses

I want a Ryan and Demings ticket in 2028,

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kristi Noem is in trouble no matter if they release a poll or not she is being sued in SD

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Xing and Snowlabrador are friends with MT Treasure whom has an R nut map they were the ones that said that KY 2019 were safe R with Election Guy so, that's why he makes an R Nut map, but users don't know about BELLWETHERS Maricopa CTY, New Mexico and OH usually predict the winners of EDay since 1912 every D Prez except Carter has won NM, every D Prez has won OH except Biden and Biden won Maricopa CTY and Kelly and Hobbs are leading in Maricopa, why is NM D not R like in 2004, poor Latinos that live in trailers whom can't afford CA or AZ living life in CO and NM that's why it's D and many poor Blks and Latinos have left AZ and Cali to CO and NM due to Cost of living increase, MT Treasure has NM going R, NO

Also, Trump overperformed in OH in 2020, because it was pre Insurrection and he offered Stimulus checks and DeWine got 6/12 percent of Blk vote that's why he is winning now, Rs blocked Voting Rights and Vance looks like Eric Trump he will get 0.5 percent of the Blk vote just like Renacci did when he lost to Brown in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, why would you make an R nut map Endorsement are coming out, you can refuse to endorse a D in an endorsement but keep the D winning that's what I say about R nut maps because if you are truly a D you wouldn't want to be wrong on your fav candidate winning

Also, users don't realize early voting, we juice our Early vote our a 3 pt Laxalt lead just like Pat Ryan overcome an 8 pt lead is nothing in a blue state it is something in a red state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the DOOMERS🛑 SHOCK POLL LISTNER GROUP CRIST 53/47

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1573304795024297984?t=8bo30ZHHE_ewF2-swBbz8Q&s=19

Just like Baldwin Ryan 48/45 we still have to vote

https://www.bw.edu/news/2022/fall/baldwin-wallace-university-takes-ohio-pulse-ahead-of-the-midterm-elections

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More good polls keep coming why because Gas prices are falling

SC McMasters plus 1


https://twitter.com/steIIa2020woof/status/1573325168902275072?t=jMLEJLNQi80bMRLCBcBQXQ&s=19

Endorsements are coming what about MO, OK Gov and SD. And KY if a blue wave development

Epsy almost won last time in red MS, I knew I wasn't making an D nut map, because OH is always a BELLWETHERS and we are leading in OH SEN , we lost OH to Trump with Biden on the ballot and FL in 2o no major Sen race

Rs did it to themselves they blocked Voting Rights and they want Minorities to vote for them and didn't offer an alternative , why would I vote R and they blocked Voting Rights

They think people are forgetting what they did, no we dont

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Get ready for 24 Senate polls after this cycle they OVERPOLL PA and OH and VA Gov races in 21/22 they're gonna over poll McCormick v Casey and Kaine v Youngkin, with Biden back on ballot the Ds should win Kaine is already beating Youngkin 41/39 and Casey is gonna beat McCormick 52/46 similar to Kelly v Masters

That's why it should be a 52/47/1 Senate wave insurance for 24 but we're not giving up on Ryan and Beasley unrol PROJECTION ARE MADE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs lost even if they win the H they won't crack the 303 blue wall they need RGovs in MI, WI and PA with R state Legislature to overturn the Electors in those three states, they won't get it

We can win back the H eventually

The EC bore count isn't Jan 5/2023 it's Jan 6/2025 and in  24 Schiff said by then Ds will have 218 instead of Speaker Pelosi if Ds lose in 22 it will be Speaker Jeffries presiding over EC count with Veep Harris