Post-debate: How many Senate seats will Republicans win?

[SnowLabrador]

Here's my reasoning: West Virginia is an automatic flip of course, and I think Montana will almost certainly fall too, and probably Ohio. I also think Michigan flips due to Israel-Gaza being a salient issue in that race and the lack of an incumbent Democrat, and if Biden's doing as badly in Nevada as polls indicate, I don't think Rosen can survive. This would be an R+5 net gain, so I think they win 54 seats.

How about you all?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The user is ignored

[Alben Barkley]

I think they on average pick up about 3, so I went with 52.

[President Johnson]

52. They will flip West Virginia (obviously), Montana and Ohio. But that was a plausible scenario before the debate already.

[MillennialModerate]

West Virginia (blowout)
Ohio (4-8 points)
Montana (razor thin loss)
Nevada (1-3 points)

Michigan, Dems hold on (Trump POTUS, Dem Senate)

53 it is.

[Tekken_Guy]

52. They flip WV, MT, and OH. I think Trump needs a true blowout to flip anything else, and I can’t see that happening even after the debate, and my prediction is still a 2016 style squeaker where Trump flips the sun belt and one or both of PA/WI. I think Biden narrowly holds MI at the moment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

West Virginia (blowout)
Ohio (4-8 points)
Montana (razor thin loss)
Nevada (1-3 points)

Michigan, Dems hold on (Trump POTUS, Dem Senate)

53 it is.

Lol Brown has lead in every poll you said AZ was going right last time

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is it a hot-take to think that down-ballot Democrats remain unaffected by Biden's debate? It seems to be a Biden exclusive problem.

For now, my prediction is Republicans picking up only Montana and West Virginia.

[SnowLabrador]

Is it a hot-take to think that down-ballot Democrats remain unaffected by Biden's debate?

It's pretty crazy to think that legions of voters are okay with downballot Democrats and will vote for all those Dems on their ballot, then skip the presidential race. There might be some of them, but it's hard to see there being as many as the polls are saying. More likely, Biden's sinking ship sinks a few swing-state Senators - the GOP is running attack ads against them saying that they knew about Biden's deteriorating cognitive state and are doing nothing.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

WV, MT, OH, NV, AZ, MI. So R 55-45

[Tekken_Guy]

“I was going to vote for a Democratic Senator, but after Biden’s horrible debate performance, I’m flipping over to the GOP”

Nobody ever.

I still think it’s just WV/MT/OH at the moment.

[iceman]

Montana and West Virginia only. I still think there would plenty downballot ticket splitting and I hope that would be the norm in the next few cycles.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

So far, I say 3 until we know anything more.

Going down from most likely to least likely to flip:

West Virginia
Montana
Ohio
Michigan
Nevada
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania

I expect all of those red states to go to Donald Trump in a majority.  The other ones I'm not sure if he'll get the majority.  If its a Trump plurality, then there's a chance the D candidate can win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So far, I say 3 until we know anything more.

Going down from most likely to least likely to flip:

West Virginia
Montana
Ohio
Michigan
Nevada
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania

I expect all of those red states to go to Donald Trump in a majority.  The other ones I'm not sure if he'll get the majority.  If its a Trump plurality, then there's a chance the D candidate can win.

Lol Bernie Moreno has behind in every poll

[ShadowRocket]

I'll be surprised if they get past 52.  Personally, I'm expecting them to finish with 51 via pick ups in WV and MT.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

WV, MT, MI

[UncleSam]

53 is my guess. WV, MT, OH, and then one of NV, MI, or AZ.

[Person Man]

Montana and West Virginia only. I still think there would plenty downballot ticket splitting and I hope that would be the norm in the next few cycles.

[Spectator]

Depends on if the replacement is Harris or someone like Whitmer/Beshear. The former? We could be looking at half a dozen or more Republican Senate gains in the swing states. The latter? I think the Midwest Dems universally hold on.

[CentristRepublican]

West Virginia (blowout)
Ohio (4-8 points)
Montana (razor thin loss)
Nevada (1-3 points)

Michigan, Dems hold on (Trump POTUS, Dem Senate)

53 it is.

MT will not vote left of NV. That didn't happen even in 2018, when Tester was the incumbent in his seat and Rosen was running against the incumbent in NV.

[CentristRepublican]

Depends on if the replacement is Harris or someone like Whitmer/Beshear. The former? We could be looking at half a dozen or more Republican Senate gains in the swing states. The latter? I think the Midwest Dems universally hold on.

Look, I agree Harris is far from a good candidate, but I really don't think she'd make this much of an electoral difference downballot.