Stein is probably still narrowly favored (Tilt D), but it doesn't look like this race is going to be Shapiro Mastriano part 2 at this point like some people have theorized about. In 2020 Cooper had net positive approval and was polling around double digits ahead. He only ended up winning by 4.5% which was one of the big surprises of the night.
NC is still a southern polarized state unlike Pennsylvania. Assuming NC goes how we expect, NC will have a Trump-voting electorate whereas PA 2022 had a Biden+3 one (although even a narrow Trump one wouldn't have saved Mastriano). Ultimately the outcome of this race probably ranges from Stein+3 to Robinson+2, and the more Trump can win NC by the better it is for the latter.
How much do you think Trump needs to win NC by to pull Robinson across?
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