French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Red Velvet]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

Bretagne is the correct name, i mean i don't know why you criticize him? We say Bretagne in dutch too. Brittany sounds goofy, reminds me of Britney Spears.

Should we say you're from Belgique then? Just plain weird to be contrarian on such an open and shut case. It's Brittany in English, now do as you wish.

I mean, why not? You could say I’m from Brésil too if you speak French and I wouldn’t mind. Just like most people here call me “Brazilian” when I actually call myself “Brasileiro” and it’s not really an issue for me because in the end it’s the same thing.

However, what you seem to be missing is that Bretagne (or whatever you prefer calling) is currently a region from France though and this is the French thread where we’re talking about its provinces and regions election results, all named in French. It’s silly to just not be okay with Bretagne just because you consider it “different” from the other ones.

The importance of language is communication IMO and if you can understand what I’m talking about - without trying to bring some political ideology into it - then all language is fair.

I’m just shook there is Celtic nationalism around here as I wasn’t even aware it was a thing hahahaha. English language is also as oppressive as French then, the correct names for Celtic nations in that case are Breizh (in Breton); Kernow (in Cornish); Éire (in Irish); Alba (in Scotish) and Cymru (in Welsh).

I wish Galicia was welcomed into the club, the Celtic ancestry I have is from there!

[Oryxslayer]

I've been working hard on an analysis of the results. Unfortunately this election is a mess of historic proportions and it's 3am, so I'm gonna need to pick it up tomorrow, but I should have a bunch of maps in the coming days.

I've been doing the same and yours probably will be better...but my brief impression has been if all these dropouts,  teamups, and voter directions are followed to a decent extent then things may be a lot more complex than we initially expected 

[Death of a Salesman]

Looks like RN and allies will be in first place in a bit over 300 seats.  I fail to see how they can win any seats in the second round where they are in second.  I also figure they will lose at least 15% of the seats they are in the first place given anti-RN consolidation.

So my wild guess is they will likely end up with around 250-260 seats.  That is most likely enough to make non-Ciotti LR and allies hold the balance of power.  It will be fun to watch the 3 or 4-way game of chicken between  LFI, non-LFI NFP, ENS, and non-Ciotti LR to try to form a government in that scenerio.

Assuming ENS withdraws in triangulars, RN will be the overwhelming beneficiary of LR transfers against NFP. As an example, Drome's 1st went NFP: 32.4% - RN: 31.1%, but with a 17.9% score for LR and a score 16.7% for ENS. RN is very likely the favorite there. ENS voters will break for NFP in the second round, but certainly not unanimously. National polling (~55-45 RN-NFP) suggest a 50-30 split of ENS voters, fairly close to what was observed in 2022. A National Rally majority is less likely than it was this morning, but certainly not impossible.  

[BigSkyBob]

Officially endorsing RN . Immigration is the 2nd most important issue for France and as a Hindu self preservation is more important than “muh stopping the far right” .

Least shocking development today.

I am supporting them because of their immigration policies not because inspite it. The only reason I didnt support them in round 1 is cause they are socialists on economic policy but now since we are guaranteed socialism anyway, I will base my support on immigration

Have you ever thought "I genuinely don't understand politics [particularly international] very well" and instead of taking outlandish positions like this, staying neutral and working to understand them better?

France needs mass deportations at this point

I'll take that as a "no"....

Does he "understand [particularly international] politics very well" is one question.

Does he understand what his political interests are in another question.

He seems to articulate that he opposes socialism and mass immigration.

Between two parties where one opposes all of his interests, and the other supports some of his interests, the rational choice seems clear.

What is your real point?

You can't be serious, right? Dude is calling for mass deportations (a borderline genocidal idea given Europe's history) of Muslims in a country he doesn't even live in because of "Hindu self preservation" whatever that means.

The condescending tone of your first sentence doesn't alter the fact that you have simply not answered my question. First of all, "Europe's history" whatever you mean by that simply isn't "Hindu history," whatever that would mean. Part of "Hindu history" was Muslim-Hindu killings before and after the partition. Now, I think references to both are illogical, hyperbolic, over-the-top appeals to slippery slope arguments, but aren't you willing to admit you are being a tad bit "eurocentric" towards a minority person? Second, if people come mass numbers illegally, deporting them in mass numbers is simply enforcement of immigration laws. Characterizing such a position in sinister tones doesn't make the underlying policy stance sinister. It makes you a sophist, no more, no less.

Again, if he has more policy agreements with one party over another doesn't make sense, from a political self-interest point of view, to vote for the party you agree with more? What is your real point?

[BigSkyBob]

It really seems like the RN was overrated. Still not an ideal result of course.

It was overrated. It was overhyped.  Yesterday, I thought France would end
up with a government further to the Left than it had previously, and, after tonight I expect
the same. It is a giant boogey-man vilification used to unmoor people from their
actual political interests.

[Storr]

"The results of the constituencies of French people living outside France have finally been published by the Ministry of the Interior.

In the 1st constituency  (North America) , Roland Lescure (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 38.84%, against Oussama Laraichi (EELV-NFP) with 36.12%. Jennifer Adam (RN) is notably eliminated with 10.70%.

In the 2nd constituency  (Central America, South America, Caribbean) , Sergio Coronado (EELV-NFP) qualifies with 36.16%, against Eléonore Caroit (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 33.49%. Marie-Nathalie Goncalves (RN) is notably eliminated with 13.28%.

In the 3rd constituency  (Northern Europe)  : Charlotte Minvielle (EELV-NFP) qualifies with 39.22%, against Vincent Caure (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 39.13%. Sophie Charbonnet (RN) is notably eliminated with 6.57%.

In the 4th constituency  (Benelux)  : Cécilia Gondard (PS-NFP) qualifies with 40.59%, against Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 33.17%. Charlotte Beaufils (RN) is notably eliminated with 7.86%.

In the 5th constituency  (Iberian Peninsula)  : Stéphane Vojetta (Renaissance-Divers Centre) qualifies with 33.68%, against Maxime Da Silva (LFI-NFP) with 26.18%. Johana Maurel (RN) is notably eliminated with 19.49%.

In the 6th constituency  (Switzerland and Liechtenstein)  : Marc Ferracci (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 40.54%, against Halima Delimi (PS-NFP) with 30.81%. Déborah Merceron (RN) is notably eliminated with 14.51%.

In the 7th constituency  (Central Europe and Balkans)  : Frédéric Petit (MoDem-Ensemble) qualifies with 37.76%, facing Asma Rharmaoui-Claquin (LFI-NFP) with 32.66%. Mathilde Naveys-Dumas (RN) was notably eliminated with 7.78%.

In the 8th constituency  (Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Malta, Turkey and Palestinian Territories)  : Meyer Habib (LR) qualifies with 35.58%, against Caroline Yadan (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 24.18%. In particular, Yaël Lerer (Balad-NFP) is eliminated with 23.14%.

In the 9th constituency  (Maghreb and West Africa)  : Karim Ben Cheïkh (EELV-NFP) qualifies with 51.57% (but less than 25% of registered voters), against Samira Djouadi (Renaissance-Ensemble) with 15.70%. Elodie Charron (RN) is notably eliminated with 10.64%.

In the 10th constituency  (Middle East, Central, Eastern and Southern Africa + Benin, Ghana, Togo and Nigeria)  : Elsa Di Meo (PS-NFP) qualifies with 32.52%, against Amélia Lakrafi (Renaissance-Enselble) with 31.82%. Jean De Veron (LR-RN) is notably eliminated with 17.16%.

In the 11th constituency  (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia, Caucasus countries, most of Asia and Oceania)  : Anne Genetet (Renaissance-Ensemble) qualifies with 39.94%, against Franck Pajot (PS- NFP) with 29.78%. In particular, Pierre Brochet (RN) was eliminated with 15.30%."

[Ancestral Republican]

Officially endorsing RN . Immigration is the 2nd most important issue for France and as a Hindu self preservation is more important than “muh stopping the far right” .

Least shocking development today.

I am supporting them because of their immigration policies not because inspite it. The only reason I didnt support them in round 1 is cause they are socialists on economic policy but now since we are guaranteed socialism anyway, I will base my support on immigration

Have you ever thought "I genuinely don't understand politics [particularly international] very well" and instead of taking outlandish positions like this, staying neutral and working to understand them better?

France needs mass deportations at this point

I'll take that as a "no"....

Does he "understand [particularly international] politics very well" is one question.

Does he understand what his political interests are in another question.

He seems to articulate that he opposes socialism and mass immigration.

Between two parties where one opposes all of his interests, and the other supports some of his interests, the rational choice seems clear.

What is your real point?

You can't be serious, right? Dude is calling for mass deportations (a borderline genocidal idea given Europe's history) of Muslims in a country he doesn't even live in because of "Hindu self preservation" whatever that means.

First of all, "Europe's history" whatever you mean by that simply isn't "Hindu history,"

It's really not a difficult exercise to understand what I meant by "Europe's history"....Your comment is a complete non-sequitur.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Would be hilarious if Flanby ends up being appointed prime minister!

The good: He could probably unite NFP and Ensemble.

The bad: M. 4% would unite them against himself.

[Beet]

The press is acting like RN won some sort of landslide, but they only got 32% of the vote, including their allies. That means for every Frenchman who voted for RN or an ally, two Frenchmen voted against them. And probably for a party so desperate to keep RN out that they would drop their own candidates to do so. In the 2022 presidential, RN got 41% so now they actually have a lower vote share by a lot.

Further, people are acting like EN got wiped out when they got 22% which means for every 3 RN voters, there were 2 EN voters. I understand it's a big climb down for EN but it's not the complete Wipeout being portrayed in some circles. Further it looks like they could still be in the swing vote in the assembly occupying the center between NFP and RN? Unless NFP and RN cooperate which seems highly unlikely.

[Philly D.]

...and when all is said and done, NFP beat RN by 33,000 votes.

[S019]

The press is acting like RN won some sort of landslide, but they only got 32% of the vote, including their allies. That means for every Frenchman who voted for RN or an ally, two Frenchmen voted against them. And probably for a party so desperate to keep RN out that they would drop their own candidates to do so. In the 2022 presidential, RN got 41% so now they actually have a lower vote share by a lot.

Further, people are acting like EN got wiped out when they got 22% which means for every 3 RN voters, there were 2 EN voters. I understand it's a big climb down for EN but it's not the complete Wipeout being portrayed in some circles. Further it looks like they could still be in the swing vote in the assembly occupying the center between NFP and RN? Unless NFP and RN cooperate which seems highly unlikely.

The signals being sent by Ensemble so far to get behind NFP candidates except for "Melenchonist" LFI and their rhetoric of "no votes for the RN," suggests an RN coalition is probably unlikely. A coalition with the left would not be easy, but it seems they have made their decision on that front. LR's refusal to take a side means things could get interesting, especially if they end up playing kingmaker, which may currently be the median outcome.

[jimros]

Sorry how is it decided when three or four candidates will make the runoff?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sorry how is it decided when three or four candidates will make the runoff?

Candidates who get at least 12.5% can advance to a second round which operates based off plurality rules. They can also withdraw.

[Cassius]

The press is acting like RN won some sort of landslide, but they only got 32% of the vote, including their allies. That means for every Frenchman who voted for RN or an ally, two Frenchmen voted against them. And probably for a party so desperate to keep RN out that they would drop their own candidates to do so. In the 2022 presidential, RN got 41% so now they actually have a lower vote share by a lot.

Further, people are acting like EN got wiped out when they got 22% which means for every 3 RN voters, there were 2 EN voters. I understand it's a big climb down for EN but it's not the complete Wipeout being portrayed in some circles. Further it looks like they could still be in the swing vote in the assembly occupying the center between NFP and RN? Unless NFP and RN cooperate which seems highly unlikely.

It is objectively a very good result for RN. They’ve chalked up a gain of eleven percent votes-wise (and that’s excluding Ciotti’s wing of LR) and I think that this is the first time that their first round score has exceeded their first round score at the closest presidential election (2022, when Marine Le Pen got 23%). They now seem a fair bet to gain an even bigger vote share in the second round, which would also be a historic first, as they usually fall back dramatically due to failing to qualify for most run-offs (whereas this time round they’ve qualified in the vast majority).

It’s true that they’re unlikely to form a majority government as the other parties will operate a cordon sanitaire, but this is probably the best result for them; they can sit back with their enlarged caucus in the National Assembly whilst the other parties try and most likely fail to cobble together some alternative arrangement, whilst the clock ticks on the next presidential election, which is the real prize.

[RGM2609]

Would I be wrong to say that whoever is elected President in 2027 is very likely to dissolve this Assembly (if Macron doesn't do it again before then)?

[Agafin]

Happens quite often in Bretagne only, I think.

Bretagne is Brittany in English, and has its own name in almost every European language due to a long history separate from France. Bretanha in Portuguese, and so on.

Bretagne is the correct name, i mean i don't know why you criticize him? We say Bretagne in dutch too. Brittany sounds goofy, reminds me of Britney Spears.

Should we say you're from Belgique then? Just plain weird to be contrarian on such an open and shut case. It's Brittany in English, now do as you wish.

I mean, why not? You could say I’m from Brésil too if you speak French and I wouldn’t mind. Just like most people here call me “Brazilian” when I actually call myself “Brasileiro” and it’s not really an issue for me because in the end it’s the same thing.

However, what you seem to be missing is that Bretagne (or whatever you prefer calling) is currently a region from France though and this is the French thread where we’re talking about its provinces and regions election results, all named in French. It’s silly to just not be okay with Bretagne just because you consider it “different” from the other ones.

The importance of language is communication IMO and if you can understand what I’m talking about - without trying to bring some political ideology into it - then all language is fair.

I’m just shook there is Celtic nationalism around here as I wasn’t even aware it was a thing hahahaha. English language is also as oppressive as French then, the correct names for Celtic nations in that case are Breizh (in Breton); Kernow (in Cornish); Éire (in Irish); Alba (in Scotish) and Cymru (in Welsh).

I wish Galicia was welcomed into the club, the Celtic ancestry I have is from there!

I'm sorry but this whole argument of yours is dumb. You're currently speaking in English so that's why the other user told you the name in English ("Brittany"). For the same reason, no one is gonna get into the japanese thread and refer to the country as Nippon or nihon, or hell even 日本 while speaking in english. But at the end of the day, no one is forcing you to use whatever word either way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Would I be wrong to say that whoever is elected President in 2027 is very likely to dissolve this Assembly (if Macron doesn't do it again before then)?

That does look likely.

[Logical]

Sorry how is it decided when three or four candidates will make the runoff?

Candidates who get at least 12.5% can advance to a second round which operates based off plurality rules. They can also withdraw.

12.5% of registered voters in the district. Very important distinction.

[Agafin]

The press is acting like RN won some sort of landslide, but they only got 32% of the vote, including their allies. That means for every Frenchman who voted for RN or an ally, two Frenchmen voted against them. And probably for a party so desperate to keep RN out that they would drop their own candidates to do so. In the 2022 presidential, RN got 41% so now they actually have a lower vote share by a lot.

Further, people are acting like EN got wiped out when they got 22% which means for every 3 RN voters, there were 2 EN voters. I understand it's a big climb down for EN but it's not the complete Wipeout being portrayed in some circles. Further it looks like they could still be in the swing vote in the assembly occupying the center between NFP and RN? Unless NFP and RN cooperate which seems highly unlikely.

Lol this is extremely disingenuous.Why compare their result to the second round (41%) rather than the first round (23%)? This is afterall just round 1.

[jaichind]

Looks like RN and allies will be in first place in a bit over 300 seats.  I fail to see how they can win any seats in the second round where they are in second.  I also figure they will lose at least 15% of the seats they are in the first place given anti-RN consolidation.

So my wild guess is they will likely end up with around 250-260 seats.  That is most likely enough to make non-Ciotti LR and allies hold the balance of power.  It will be fun to watch the 3 or 4-way game of chicken between  LFI, non-LFI NFP, ENS, and non-Ciotti LR to try to form a government in that scenerio.

Assuming ENS withdraws in triangulars, RN will be the overwhelming beneficiary of LR transfers against NFP. As an example, Drome's 1st went NFP: 32.4% - RN: 31.1%, but with a 17.9% score for LR and a score 16.7% for ENS. RN is very likely the favorite there. ENS voters will break for NFP in the second round, but certainly not unanimously. National polling (~55-45 RN-NFP) suggest a 50-30 split of ENS voters, fairly close to what was observed in 2022. A National Rally majority is less likely than it was this morning, but certainly not impossible.  

I agree with that if the NFP candidate is LFI.  I am not sure that would be the dynamic if a non-LFI candidate is in the fray.  Also, REC was completely squeezed in the first round so there are almost no new voters for RN to draw on.  

But I do agree that the only hope for RN is the non-Ciotti  LR vote transfer.  RN has to make their campaign in the second round about stopping LFI to get those voters.

[mubar]

Sorry how is it decided when three or four candidates will make the runoff?

Candidates who get at least 12.5% can advance to a second round which operates based off plurality rules. They can also withdraw.

As Logical corrected, it's indeed candidates who get at least 12.5% of eligible voters of the constituency, not the actual votes. So turnout matters.

To illustrate how that works in practice:

If the constituency has a low turnout of 50% then the threshold of 12.5% of eligible voters becomes 25% of actual votes, and triangles become rare in the runoff. Also with turnout 50% or less, a 4-way becomes mathematically impossible. Such low turnout under 50% will also activate the additional 1st round winner rule: to win outright, you have to get both 50% of votes and 25% of eligible votes.

The typical constituency had under 50% turnout in both 2017 and 2022, so the above was usual.

If the turnout in some constituency is very low, under 37.5% or so, even 3-ways become mathematically impossible as the threshold rises past 1/3 of the vote. Finally, with under 25% turnout, it becomes impossible to win outright in the 1st round even with practically all the votes, and the election in such low-turnout constituency will always default to 2nd round with the 2 top candidates.

Such is the case of constituencies for French people living outside of France, where turnouts are very low.

Conversely, a higher turnout brings more triangles and occasional 4-ways precisely for this reason. When a constituency has over 62.5% voting, the threshold goes down to 20% and at this point there start to be a lot of 3-ways under the current multiparty or multi-bloc French system. In this election a typical constituency has turnout in high 60s bringing the threshold to around 18 or 19% and allowing hundreds of 3rd candidates and a few 4th candidates to the runoff, with a theoretical possibility of even 5th candidates qualifying (though I don't think this has actually happened).

In 1970s, French legislative elections had over 80% turnout. If such high turnout would happen again, the threshold to qualify to the 2nd round could be as low as 15% and with the current party landscape, this would make the vast majority of constituencies have 3 or 4 candidates qualify to the runoff.

Obviously, having more than 2 candidates in the runoff brings tactical challenges to parties and voters, this is why we are likely going to see many withdraw in favor of another candidate.

[RGM2609]

I do have my doubts that voters who have stuck with Macron deapite it all will now massively vote for the Far-Left Front, which includes the literal Communist Party, the Trotskyite Melenchonist party and the neocommunist Greens. Large parts of which are even more pro-Russian than RN and whose program would bankrupt France. Honestly I would've been an Ensemble-abstain voter in this contest.

[Flyersfan232]

nfp supporters made it clear wont Accept the results if they lose and their supporters will try a french j6 they are a threat to democracy

[Epaminondas]

The maps makes France look like the US since 2016: an almost direct correlation between location appeal and wealth and the vote for the far right.

Nobody would choose to move to the Meuse -> 50% RN
Everybody wants to visit Rennes -> 20% RN

This leaves large swathes of France open to populism. Might still not be enough to win the presidency in 2027, but it means the RN is almost sure to retain 200+ seats and have an outsize say in the assembly, which is favourable to rural areas, for decades to come.

...and when all is said and done, NFP beat RN by 33,000 votes.

Trying to understand this: you've added up all Nouveau Front Populaire votes, dissident left votes, and far left votes, and compared them again a standalone Front National, is that it?

[Epaminondas]

Can someone recall what Mélenchon's instructions after round 1 of the legislative election in 2017 and 2022 were?