United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1795834420680687806
The optics don't strike me as brilliant here, what do others say?

Absolutely terrible optics to be associated with a notoriously shady character, but I think if he gets ahead of the story the heroin dealer will salvage his reputation.

[oldtimer]

Per the Independent, Lucy Allan is in talks to stand for Reform in The Wrekin, which neighbours her Telford constituency.

I doubt that Mark Pritchard would be particularly happy about that.

On current polls Wrekin ought to be a Labour gain even without Reform getting a higher profile candidate.

"Tories getting Wrekt" headline on election night is possible.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1795834420680687806
The optics don't strike me as brilliant here, what do others say?

Absolutely terrible optics to be associated with a notoriously shady character, but I think if he gets ahead of the story the heroin dealer will salvage his reputation.

Does the idea of Paula Vennells being adopted as a Tory candidate seem far-fetched? Apparently there are plenty of seats still available.

[JimJamUK]

I’m genuinely flabbergasted that Gullis is only 34. I would have said mid 40s at least.

[Zinneke]

I’m genuinely flabbergasted that Gullis is only 34. I would have said mid 40s at least.

He's been too loyal to the foil

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1795862063480234472

They beat me to posting it on VoteUK but not here

[Torrain]

He’s not the only one by the looks of it:
https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1795879898491343314?s=46&t=i-UD2L...

[Blair]

Social media does make these sort of antics a lot harder; this stuff ofc went on in 1997 and 2010 but still…

[Left Wing]

Sir Keir Stalin would prefer if he could just stand his mates in each seat instead of going through a pesky selection process

[Torrain]

Paul Waugh selected in Rochdale.

Must say, I’ll shed few tears over Lloyd Russell-Moore going. Turning his 2019 election night speech into an aggressive rant that ended with a call to physically fight the Tories in the streets was a particular low. Not least for the mangled WW2 references.

Other news of the evening - Abbott has attended a small protest in her honour, and promised to be a candidate “no matter what”. Which feels like we’re edging towards the Labour rule book again…

Also - footage of Iain Dale saying (on his podcast, no less) that he hates living in Tunbridge Wells, wants to move, and only stays there on the insistence of his husband has resurfaced.

[Oryxslayer]

Other news of the evening - Abbott has attended a small protest in her honour, and promised to be a candidate “no matter what”. Which feels like we’re edging towards the Labour rule book again…

Probably going to end up joining Corbyn in the left-and-long-serving independent's corner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember that this is the brief season of silly buggers and of deals and all sorts of things are said and all sorts of things are done and not all that is said is done.

[Oryxslayer]

In utterly expected but still important news the DUP are not going to run in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, leaving it as the 'usual' UUP versus SF near-duopoly.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Westminster polling for Wales:
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1795850878630469758

Will PC “keep” the 4 seats that the had in 2019? Obviously there’s been boundary changes and the notional results have them at 2 for 2019, but that doesn’t reflect the members elected in 2019. Speaking of whom…

PC might have a bit better chance of getting four seats now that Johnathan Edwards confirmed he won’t be standing as an independent in Caerfyrddin.

[Torrain]

In utterly expected but still important news the DUP are not going to run in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, leaving it as the 'usual' UUP versus SF near-duopoly.

Aye - we’ve candidates from the same four parties as last time, so a close UUP-SF race with SDLP and Alliance barely saving their deposits.

[Cassius]

Paul Waugh selected in Rochdale.

Must say, I’ll shed few tears over Lloyd Russell-Moore going. Turning his 2019 election night speech into an aggressive rant that ended with a call to physically fight the Tories in the streets was a particular low. Not least for the mangled WW2 references.

The resemblance of Russell-Moyle’s voice to that of the Michael Wisher incarnation of Davros is truly uncanny:

[Oryxslayer]

Westminster polling for Wales:

Will PC “keep” the 4 seats that the had in 2019? Obviously there’s been boundary changes and the notional results have them at 2 for 2019, but that doesn’t reflect the members elected in 2019. Speaking of whom…

PC might have a bit better chance of getting four seats now that Johnathan Edwards confirmed he won’t be standing as an independent in Caerfyrddin.

Most models/rational analysts expect them to hold the 3 seats with continuity to their present 4 - Arfon got axed.

Whether they get a 4th seems at the moment down to Ynys Môn which is hard to get a bead on in national contests. In other recent contests the island has become rather PC-friendly - for example the PC council majority. Notably the leader of that council is the PC candidate.

[DL]

Other news of the evening - Abbott has attended a small protest in her honour, and promised to be a candidate “no matter what”. Which feels like we’re edging towards the Labour rule book again…

Probably going to end up joining Corbyn in the left-and-long-serving independent's corner.

Who is more likely to win running as an independent? Corbyn or Abbott?

[JimJamUK]

Whether they get a 4th seems at the moment down to Ynys Môn which is hard to get a bead on in national contests. In other recent contests the island has become rather PC-friendly - for example the PC council majority. Notably the leader of that council is the PC candidate.

PC have done very well at every level in Anglesey for many cycles now, with the exception of general elections. This is both due to PC supporters having better turnout, but also clearly vote switching as they can get more absolute votes in lower turnout elections than they do in the general election. Always hard to predict, but worth noting Labour still came 2nd in 2019, and even the possible anaemic rise in support for Welsh Labour is not suggestive of them falling behind PC.

[JimJamUK]

Labour are now rushing through their selections with a load of candidates being imposed on seats they have no connection to. A good number of them are from the Starmer/Labour right wing inner circle. It’s fair to say at least a couple of them are hyper factional/a bit thick and won’t have much to contribute in government.

[Coldstream]

Westminster polling for Wales:

Will PC “keep” the 4 seats that the had in 2019? Obviously there’s been boundary changes and the notional results have them at 2 for 2019, but that doesn’t reflect the members elected in 2019. Speaking of whom…

PC might have a bit better chance of getting four seats now that Johnathan Edwards confirmed he won’t be standing as an independent in Caerfyrddin.

Most models/rational analysts expect them to hold the 3 seats with continuity to their present 4 - Arfon got axed.

Whether they get a 4th seems at the moment down to Ynys Môn which is hard to get a bead on in national contests. In other recent contests the island has become rather PC-friendly - for example the PC council majority. Notably the leader of that council is the PC candidate.

I’m not convinced they’re a sure bet in Ceredigion Preseli, I think Labour have a chance - maybe not a massive one, but it’s doable. Will likely be a very narrow plurality whoever wins. Which isn’t without precedent in Ceredigion, and the Preseli bit shouldn’t be that good for Plaid.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1795936953575100615
She was the 2019 candidate for Labour, in IDS' seat, which came down to a 1k majority. Decent selection for someone in the NEC's good graces now.

[WD]

Starmer is going to have one of the most loyal PLPs ever, isn’t he?

[xelas81]

She was the 2019 candidate for Labour, in IDS' seat, which came down to a 1k majority. Decent selection for someone in the NEC's good graces now.

Minor note but surprised that IDS is not retiring.

[MaxQue]

Starmer is going to have one of the most loyal PLPs ever, isn’t he?

He won't, as he apparently didn't realize the right of the party is going to get rid of him very quickly if he becomes a liability.