2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: South Carolina

[politicallefty]

Please temper your expectations and anticipate SCOTUS to stay the ruling on appeal.

The rulings in AL and LA were stayed on the Purcell principle. This is a different scenario as we are over a year from the next elections.

He's not wrong. SCOTUS will take and squash this decision.

[politicallefty]

It's one thing to get a victory on statutory interpretation. It's quite another to get one based on the 14th Amendment. They're two completely different things.

[politicallefty]

I absolutely get what you're saying. I just don't see it flying with this Court. Milligan happened in the context of Alabama, one of the most racially polarized states in the country. The only real alternative to that decision would be to render Section 2 of the VRA a nullity. If the Court struck down Section 2, the Democratic Party would easily declare open warfare on the Supreme Court.

(Btw, please don't mistake my brevity for not reading or considering everything you said. I just cannot see this Court striking down Congressional maps on 14th Amendment grounds. Not even Wesberry was based on the 14th Amendment.)

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1711454918144348457

How long would it take for SCOTUS to make a decision?

The article says that the state wants a decision by January. Obviously, SCOTUS can make a decision whenever it wants. Beyond that, definitely by the end of June, as is customary for cases heard through the normal process.

[politicallefty]

You can listen to the live oral arguments Wednesday morning, which can reveal what the Justices are thinking about. Even then, you sometimes don't know how things are going to go. Obviously, Milligan was a complete surprise. I think most of us were expecting a gutting of Section 2. I haven't been optimistic with this SC case, so I'll be interested to listen to the oral arguments myself.

[politicallefty]

If this wasn't the result you were expecting, you haven't been paying attention. I do remember mentioning somewhere that trying to use the 14th Amendment is a huge mistake with this Court. This decision is probably worse than I expected. The fact that it was Alito opinion should tell you exactly where this Court is. There is no liberal cause that can be advanced through this Supreme Court by using the 14th Amendment. We're lucky enough as it is that Roberts and Kavanaugh did what they did with the Southern VRA districts.

If you want to see how bad things can get, look at the Thomas concurrence. He definitely is not the only Justice to believe in overturning Baker v. Carr and its progeny.