Why is Penobscot County, ME, as Republican as it is?

[mianfei]

One question I have long wanted to ask is why Penobscot County, Maine is as Republican as it is, today and even historically.

It is the third-most-populous county in Maine (seventh most populous of 41 in Upper New England), and has a substantial student body at the University of Maine in Orono. Yet, apart from the anti-Goldwater 1964 election and the following “favorite son” 1968 election, no Democrat has ever managed 52 percent of the county’s vote. Even Barack Obama’s circa 51 percent seems strangely low for an urban college-town county especially one in the Northeast, and was his second-worst showing in Maine after thinly populated Piscataquis County.

Looking more closely at the municipality map does not clarify things perfectly.

If we examine the county (boundary) map and compare, we do see that there are a few Democratic municipalities in the south, but in fact fewer than in less populous, non-college-town Aroostook or Franklin Counties. We do see many extremely Republican — typical white rural — municipalities in the north of Penobscot, and the map does suggest that one possible reason Penobscot is as Republican as it is is that the county is much more rural than its population figure would imply. Is this correct?

[TML]

The overall percentage of people with higher education here is relatively low (30% according to the 2020 census, whereas the figure is 34% for Maine statewide). Furthermore, according to DRA data, there are only a few D-leaning municipalities in this county overall: Bangor, Old Town, Orono, Veazie, and the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation. These municipalities combine to comprise only about 35% of the county's total population, which means that the outer (rural) municipalities combined are enough to make this county R-leaning overall.

[DPKdebator]

Penobscot County is a very blue collar area; Bangor is a hub for Maine's logging industry and is an old mill town. The University of Maine is in Orono, but overall it's a pretty isolated and rural area (it's 2 hours from Portland to Bangor and 4 hours from Boston). Like much of downeast and northern Maine, it's the type of place left behind by the new economy which Trump strongly appeals to.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

The answer may also lie in the southwestern portion of Penobscot, west of Bangor. Towns like Hermon, Levant, Dexter, Newport. Look at a municipality map of the 2008 results and you'll see that even as most of rural Maine voted for Obama, McCain still won these central Maine rural towns. These towns are slightly exurban to Bangor and are thus probably a bit less reliant on logging or mill activities that other parts of the state are. I believe that this, in combination with there being a bit of a localized Bible Belt in those towns compared to more secular blue collar places that only realigned under the MAGA movement, has led to Penobscot being a bit redder than other parts of rural Maine, even with Bangor and Orono voting for Democrats.

This part of Maine's higher level of religiosity also shows up in some primary results. For example, in 2016 Ted Cruz won Maine (which felt weird both then and now), but his best county in the caucus was Penobscot.

Also, this is a very negligible portion of the population, but that far northern portion of the county has a couple Amish communities like Patten - just to give a sense of how some of the rural parts of this county are very unlike other rural parts of Maine and New England in general.

[addyj76ers]

Penobscot County, ME, leans Republican due to a combination of its rural character, economic concerns, and cultural values. The area's economy, historically rooted in industries like logging and manufacturing, aligns with Republican emphasis on deregulation and business support. Additionally, the cultural values in this region, which prioritize traditional and conservative social norms, resonate more with Republican ideologies. Lastly, the influence of local leaders and long-standing community ties further solidifies Republican support in Penobscot County.