Does Jamaal Bowman crack 40%?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm very fascinated to see how the vote shares shake out. Will Bowman be crushed by the AIPAC boot or will he stage a heroic resistance effort to cling on by the skin of his teeth?

Also curious how Bowman bros feel about healing hands Cori and her potential impending electoral explosion. Aside from the AIPAC money do they have comparable anti-Bell claims? Latimer is widely known to be trash and a Cuomo stooge but Bell has far fewer well known skeletons in his closet.

MO-01 doesn’t have quite as big of an obvious anti-Bush base as NY-16 has for Bowman.

If you look at her primary coalition from 2020, I’m actually not so sure that’s true.  Bell is also a much more acceptable candidate for most Democrats than Latimer is.

[Ancestral Republican]

I'm very fascinated to see how the vote shares shake out. Will Bowman be crushed by the AIPAC boot or will he stage a heroic resistance effort to cling on by the skin of his teeth?

Also curious how Bowman bros feel about healing hands Cori and her potential impending electoral explosion. Aside from the AIPAC money do they have comparable anti-Bell claims? Latimer is widely known to be trash and a Cuomo stooge but Bell has far fewer well known skeletons in his closet.

MO-01 doesn’t have quite as big of an obvious anti-Bush base as NY-16 has for Bowman.

St. Louis has 60000 Jews that are very organized plus a large set of moderates and Republicans who usually have worthless votes. Cori has a lot of negative stuff that people dislike and I'm told, ironically by Pakistani Muslims, that her constituent services are trash, especially for family visas.

I hear a lot of conservative Muslims who really hate how Cori talks about certain topics very publically, so she might not even have that vote to oppose the liberal Jewish zionist vote.

We all believe you're dialed into the St. Louis Muslim community.

[axiomsofdominion]

Word on Bowman is that AOC cancelled an appearance at an event, reports of terrible turnout in his core areas, and locals said that many pro-Bowman people even in the Bronx are soured on him now.

Of course Latimer says Bowman will crack 40% but that could just be trying to make sure his voters turnout.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Latimer Bowman is not AOC, he is very much more of a performative politician who lost connection to his district than trying to get substance done. The whole fire alarm thing is evident of that. If he looses it’ll be a rebuke of that rather than some ideological one.

[axiomsofdominion]

Latimer is not AOC, he is very much more of a performative politician who lost connection to his district than trying to get substance done. The whole fire alarm thing is evident of that. If he looses it’ll be a rebuke of that rather than some ideological one.

I assume you meant Bowman and not Latimer lmao. Both of those fellas are seething at you confusing them

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Latimer is not AOC, he is very much more of a performative politician who lost connection to his district than trying to get substance done. The whole fire alarm thing is evident of that. If he looses it’ll be a rebuke of that rather than some ideological one.

I assume you meant Bowman and not Latimer lmao. Both of those fellas are seething at you confusing them

Whoops ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[gf20202]

https://twitter.com/sydneyaltfield/status/1805715807743123877
Seems bad for Bowman

[axiomsofdominion]

So far my deep dive into Jewish Twitter is telling me that the turnout is insane and the tracking logistics is even better. This is stuff that would impress the Bernie campaign much less anyone else with standard midwit field efforts.

My 32%-36% prediction is looking better and better.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Protip: if you want to criticize someone for denying sexual assault, you should make sure your candidate of choice doesn't deny sexual assault. And continues to this day to deny and cape for sexual assault!

Yeah Latimer is a piece of sh**t. News at 11. That's why the goal is to find a non-idiot leftist candidate to primary him in 2026.

The problem with this is that the NYDP won't let it happen. Latimer is ultimately one of their people. The NYDP, as we know from Long Island and Buffalo, is more concerned with taking down its progressive flank than fighting the GOP. It's also hilarious to see Jacobs literally endorse Latimer against an incumbent!

Any sort of primary challenge in 2026 - even from a normal generic Democrat - will see tooth-and-nail resistance from the state party. The party united to pressure Niou not to pull a Joseph Crowley, and that was against a random candidate. You'd be a fool to think they won't go harder for an actual friend of the party machine in power.

[The Mikado]

Can't wait until tomorrow when people will be talking about literally any other House race.

[axiomsofdominion]

Can't wait until tomorrow when people will be talking about literally any other House race.

Yeah we'll have to have a few hundred pages discussing the implications of the margin for Latimer on Cori Bush.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

https://twitter.com/sydneyaltfield/status/1805715807743123877
Seems bad for Bowman

Jews turn out.

[Oryxslayer]

Latimer leads the combined EV 60-40.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yeah, from the current state of things this question might be close, but the race sure isn't.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

For all my complaining about the race, if I wanted to win, I would simply not rip entire towns in my district. Especially if they are ethnic enclaves relevant to my district.

[Oryxslayer]

The margin stands at 58.4% to 41.6%, or a 17-point gap at the end of the night. Yes, this isn't the end of the count, there will be a small number of late mail, military, and other special votes added to the total in a week or two. However, past precedent tells us that unless those are like 80-20 Latimer, Bowman will still remain above 40%.

[axiomsofdominion]

The margin stands at 58.4% to 41.6%, or a 17-point gap at the end of the night. Yes, this isn't the end of the count, there will be a small number of late mail, military, and other special votes added to the total in a week or two. However, past precedent tells us that unless those are like 80-20 Latimer, Bowman will still remain above 40%.

The NYT says 12% of votes remain, almost entirely within Westchester. Latimer would need to win those votes by 12%/2+1.4%/2. Roughly 7% to 5%. But let's say 8% to 4%. So 2 to 1. Could he get 67% of the votes? Hard to say without knowing the precincts and what type of vote they are but it is totally possible.

From 71% to 81% Latimer increased his margin by almost 10%. Then Bowman came back with a 2.4% over all shift, Latimer -1.2% and Bowman +1.2%.

[Oryxslayer]

The margin stands at 58.4% to 41.6%, or a 17-point gap at the end of the night. Yes, this isn't the end of the count, there will be a small number of late mail, military, and other special votes added to the total in a week or two. However, past precedent tells us that unless those are like 80-20 Latimer, Bowman will still remain above 40%.

The NYT says 12% of votes remain, almost entirely within Westchester. Latimer would need to win those votes by 12%/2+1.4%/2. Roughly 7% to 5%. But let's say 8% to 4%. So 2 to 1. Could he get 67% of the votes? Hard to say without knowing the precincts and what type of vote they are but it is totally possible.

From 71% to 81% Latimer increased his margin by almost 10%. Then Bowman came back with a 2.4% over all shift, Latimer -1.2% and Bowman +1.2%.

Please don't believe the NYT estimates. Everyone should have learned better from last week in VA-05 at minimum. The estimates are a good generalization in the post-pandemic environment, where just counting by precincts (as was done prior to 2020) doesn't convey the whole narrative. There are multiple types of votes, and how counties treat those votes in enumeration is important and different everywhere. At the end of the day though, their estimates are often victims this process, and of turnout.

NY-03 ended at 169.5K votes and 53.9-46.1 on election night, but the NYT estimates said 93% in. The situation is analogous to now because like then, the County, and City sites say all is in, but there remain officially empty/uncounted precincts in the State tabulation process for the late mail votes. After all was said and done, the count finished at 172.8K votes, or approximately 3.3K more added. That was not 7% of votes remaining, it was a bit under 2%. Which wasn't out of line with past NY counts since they reformed the process prior to 2022. That's just a very good example, but there are plenty more of the estimates failing cause of the diversity of reporting methods.

FTR, if we were to treat NY-03 as directly comparable to NY-16 (you really shouldn't), ignoring that ones was a primary and one was a general with all the differences in voter behavior, you end up with an approximation of 1,452 votes remaining. Even if Latimer won 100% of them, and we know he won't cause late mail will come from the Bronx, he can't hit 60%. There needs to be more, but I suspect there are less since this is a primary.

[axiomsofdominion]

The margin stands at 58.4% to 41.6%, or a 17-point gap at the end of the night. Yes, this isn't the end of the count, there will be a small number of late mail, military, and other special votes added to the total in a week or two. However, past precedent tells us that unless those are like 80-20 Latimer, Bowman will still remain above 40%.

The NYT says 12% of votes remain, almost entirely within Westchester. Latimer would need to win those votes by 12%/2+1.4%/2. Roughly 7% to 5%. But let's say 8% to 4%. So 2 to 1. Could he get 67% of the votes? Hard to say without knowing the precincts and what type of vote they are but it is totally possible.

From 71% to 81% Latimer increased his margin by almost 10%. Then Bowman came back with a 2.4% over all shift, Latimer -1.2% and Bowman +1.2%.

Please don't believe the NYT estimates. Everyone should have learned better from last week in VA-05 at minimum. The estimates are a good generalization in the post-pandemic environment, where just counting by precincts (as was done prior to 2020) doesn't convey the whole narrative. There are multiple types of votes, and how counties treat those votes in enumeration is important and different everywhere. At the end of the day though, their estimates are often victims this process, and of turnout.

NY-03 ended at 169.5K votes and 53.9-46.1 on election night, but the NYT estimates said 93% in. The situation is analogous to now because like then, the County, and City sites say all is in, but there remain officially empty/uncounted precincts in the State tabulation process for the late mail votes. After all was said and done, the count finished at 172.8K votes, or approximately 3.3K more added. That was not 7% of votes remaining, it was a bit under 2%. Which wasn't out of line with past NY counts since they reformed the process prior to 2022. That's just a very good example, but there are plenty more of the estimates failing cause of the diversity of reporting methods.

FTR, if we were to treat NY-03 as directly comparable to NY-16 (you really shouldn't), ignoring that ones was a primary and one was a general with all the differences in voter behavior, you end up with an approximation of 1,452 votes remaining. Even if Latimer won 100% of them, and we know he won't cause late mail will come from the Bronx, he can't hit 60%. There needs to be more, but I suspect there are less since this is a primary.

Well yes we are all just guessing, including the NYT and DecisonDeskHQ, which says 7% remaining.

But a lot of people, including at least one voter in the district, were claiming that the 12% margin before the last 2 drops was the end. So who knows?

[Lief 🗽]

The far left response to last night will be to double down on the conspiracy theories and bigotry.
https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/1805787236471804194?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

[axiomsofdominion]

The far left response to last night will be to double down on the conspiracy theories and bigotry.
https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/1805787236471804194?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

Brie is a significant reason Bernie Sanders lost to Joe Biden. While many attacks on her like those of Dr. Jason Johnson were out of line, she was nevertheless a terrible press secretary who only cared about getting a nice post-campaign job.

People should ignore her nonsense.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'm very fascinated to see how the vote shares shake out. Will Bowman be crushed by the AIPAC boot or will he stage a heroic resistance effort to cling on by the skin of his teeth?

Also curious how Bowman bros feel about healing hands Cori and her potential impending electoral explosion. Aside from the AIPAC money do they have comparable anti-Bell claims? Latimer is widely known to be trash and a Cuomo stooge but Bell has far fewer well known skeletons in his closet.

MO-01 doesn’t have quite as big of an obvious anti-Bush base as NY-16 has for Bowman.

If you look at her primary coalition from 2020, I’m actually not so sure that’s true.  Bell is also a much more acceptable candidate for most Democrats than Latimer is.

Can confirm. I'm not invested in Bush vs. Bell, and whatever anger about Brown dissipated after Nina Turner talked about "evil money". And I looked into her actual views and realized Brown was a normal Democrat.

I just really hate Latimer, because Latimer is not a normal Democrat.

[oldtimer]

The far left response to last night will be to double down on the conspiracy theories and bigotry.
https://twitter.com/briebriejoy/status/1805787236471804194?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

Look for decades now turnout in New York is so low that a single apartment block can be a chunk of the vote.

If Latimer is winning a block 119-4 and you don't have the equivalent you lose.

They have to find out why turnout is always so low.

[Green Line]

The far left response to last night will be to double down on the conspiracy theories and bigotry.
[tweet]https://x.com/briebriejoy/status/1805787236471804194?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yYJk03d3uHYf-g

Bowman supporters must denounce.

[DaleCooper]

I'm very fascinated to see how the vote shares shake out. Will Bowman be crushed by the AIPAC boot or will he stage a heroic resistance effort to cling on by the skin of his teeth?

Also curious how Bowman bros feel about healing hands Cori and her potential impending electoral explosion. Aside from the AIPAC money do they have comparable anti-Bell claims? Latimer is widely known to be trash and a Cuomo stooge but Bell has far fewer well known skeletons in his closet.

MO-01 doesn’t have quite as big of an obvious anti-Bush base as NY-16 has for Bowman.

If you look at her primary coalition from 2020, I’m actually not so sure that’s true.  Bell is also a much more acceptable candidate for most Democrats than Latimer is.

Can confirm. I'm not invested in Bush vs. Bell, and whatever anger about Brown dissipated after Nina Turner talked about "evil money". And I looked into her actual views and realized Brown was a normal Democrat.

I just really hate Latimer, because Latimer is not a normal Democrat.

We dodged a bullet with Nina Turner. Thank God she lost.