Does Jamaal Bowman crack 40%?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1800977565550874925

"Never primary incumbents."

A lot of the establishment also endorsed against Markey in 2020.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1800977565550874925

"Never primary incumbents."

I don't think it's hypocrisy to oppose something at the start, have it become common practice despite your opposition, and then go "Okay, I guess that's what we're doing now".

Also, I think it hits differently when she lives in Westchester and isn’t weighing in from somewhere far away (although I don’t know if Chappaqua is in this district.)

[darklordoftech]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1800977565550874925

"Never primary incumbents."

A lot of the establishment also endorsed against Markey in 2020.

I thought that was hypocritical for the same reason.

[Canis]

Im skeptical of the polling in this primary, look at how badly the polling missed in PA-12 a few months ago. Id say Bowman is definetly in trouble and facing a close race but I doubt he gets blown out, most likely if he loses hell still be in the upper 40s.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1800977565550874925

"Never primary incumbents."

I don't think it's hypocrisy to oppose something at the start, have it become common practice despite your opposition, and then go "Okay, I guess that's what we're doing now".

Also, I think it hits differently when she lives in Westchester and isn’t weighing in from somewhere far away (although I don’t know if Chappaqua is in this district.)

It’s in NY-17

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Im skeptical of the polling in this primary, look at how badly the polling missed in PA-12 a few months ago. Id say Bowman is definetly in trouble and facing a close race but I doubt he gets blown out, most likely if he loses hell still be in the upper 40s.

There was virtually no polling in PA-12 that I saw. Patel did a lot to make that race look competitive, but there was no real mainstream interest in the race. AIPAC and DMFI even stayed out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Im skeptical of the polling in this primary, look at how badly the polling missed in PA-12 a few months ago. Id say Bowman is definetly in trouble and facing a close race but I doubt he gets blown out, most likely if he loses hell still be in the upper 40s.

No one thought PA-12 would be competitive and I don’t recall much - if any - polling of it

[Brittain33]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

[jaichind]

I live in this district.   Bowman will clearly lose badly in the part of Westchester where I live.  Latimer who is also the county executive is very well organized.    Bowman will need a massive turnout in the Bronx and Southern Westchester to have a chance.  I doubt it will materialize.

[Spectator]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

[Brittain33]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

From your lips to God’s ears. Not impressed when Omar swanned into her daughter’s campus to call 19-year-old Jewish students “pro-genocide” and pose with that student who brags about fighting his Zionist classmates to kill.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

From your lips to God’s ears. Not impressed when Omar swanned into her daughter’s campus to call 19-year-old Jewish students “pro-genocide” and pose with that student who brags about fighting his Zionist classmates to kill.

Be careful what you wish for; as horrible as Omar is, Samuels is far worse

[Spectator]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

From your lips to God’s ears. Not impressed when Omar swanned into her daughter’s campus to call 19-year-old Jewish students “pro-genocide” and pose with that student who brags about fighting his Zionist classmates to kill.

Be careful what you wish for; as horrible as Omar is, Samuels is far worse

They can toss him out in 2026 then? For the life of me, I can’t figure out why no ambitious and accomplished Minneapolis Democrat saw the extremely close 2022 primary and come to the conclusion that there was blood in the water.

[wnwnwn]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

From your lips to God’s ears. Not impressed when Omar swanned into her daughter’s campus to call 19-year-old Jewish students “pro-genocide” and pose with that student who brags about fighting his Zionist classmates to kill.

Be careful what you wish for; as horrible as Omar is, Samuels is far worse

They can toss him out in 2026 then? For the life of me, I can’t figure out why no ambitious and accomplished Minneapolis Democrat saw the extremely close 2022 primary and come to the conclusion that there was blood in the water.

The same could be said about the 45%black MI-12...
Maybe they don't want inter-party infighting.

[Brittain33]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

From your lips to God’s ears. Not impressed when Omar swanned into her daughter’s campus to call 19-year-old Jewish students “pro-genocide” and pose with that student who brags about fighting his Zionist classmates to kill.

Be careful what you wish for; as horrible as Omar is, Samuels is far worse

They can toss him out in 2026 then? For the life of me, I can’t figure out why no ambitious and accomplished Minneapolis Democrat saw the extremely close 2022 primary and come to the conclusion that there was blood in the water.

The same could be said about the 45%black MI-12...
Maybe they don't want inter-party infighting.

Tlaib curbstomped her competitors in the 2022 primary and has good constituent service so I don’t think she’s vulnerable.

[MyLifeIsYours]

https://twitter.com/GoodVibePolitik/status/1801808391049802200

[cg41386]

I have no dog in this fight, but I'm in the NYC TV market for most of next week. I just arrived earlier this afternoon, and I have been absolutely bombarded with pro-Latimer/Anti-Bowman ads in a very short time.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jamaal Bowman will already be on the ballot in November as the candidate of NY's Working Families Party.  In New York, candidates can run in the primaries of other parties and have two (2) lines on the ballot in the General Election, provided that they have a Wilson-Pekula waiver from the Chairman of the party they are not registered to vote in.

What happens if Latimer wins the primary, but Bowman remains on the ballot for the general election?  Could Bowman win as the Working Families Party nominee?  It's not unthinkable, and some Democrats have pulled this off.  Joe Lieberman did in 2006 in CT.  Joe Moakley, a Democrat running as an Independent, upset Rep. Louise Day Hicks (D-Boston) in the 1972 General.  Bowman is the kind of guy to not merely concede, and given that NY-16 will be 30% Trump in a GREAT REPUBLICAN year, Bowman would not likely be causing a Republican to win the district. 

Could Bowman get to 40% as the WFP candidate in the GENERAL election?  I think it's possible if he runs up a big vote in the NYC portion of the district.  He won't get a dime from the House Democratic Campaign Committee, but he may be supported by progressive sources.

[Spectator]

Jamaal Bowman will already be on the ballot in November as the candidate of NY's Working Families Party.  In New York, candidates can run in the primaries of other parties and have two (2) lines on the ballot in the General Election, provided that they have a Wilson-Pekula waiver from the Chairman of the party they are not registered to vote in.

What happens if Latimer wins the primary, but Bowman remains on the ballot for the general election?  Could Bowman win as the Working Families Party nominee?  It's not unthinkable, and some Democrats have pulled this off.  Joe Lieberman did in 2006 in CT.  Joe Moakley, a Democrat running as an Independent, upset Rep. Louise Day Hicks (D-Boston) in the 1972 General.  Bowman is the kind of guy to not merely concede, and given that NY-16 will be 30% Trump in a GREAT REPUBLICAN year, Bowman would not likely be causing a Republican to win the district. 

Could Bowman get to 40% as the WFP candidate in the GENERAL election?  I think it's possible if he runs up a big vote in the NYC portion of the district.  He won't get a dime from the House Democratic Campaign Committee, but he may be supported by progressive sources.

Pretty hard to remove candidates in New York. This happened when AOC beat Crowley in the 2018 primary. I don’t think Crowley actively campaigned or anything, but he got like 5% of the vote. No way Bowman would be able to win the district in November on the WFP line alone. Latimer would have the vast majority of Dems and probably some Republicans strategically voting for him to stop Bowman for certain.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/GoodVibePolitik/status/1801808391049802200

Good lord, now you're posting an actual Hamas supporter attacking Bowman from the left? Comical. At least I think that's what he's saying? Incoherent tankie nonsense.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yes, isn’t the story of PA-12 that Summer Lee only got 60% when AIPAC chose NOT to seriously contest the race? Lee was also a much better match for her district than Bowman is.

Yea, if Bowman gets blown out by as much as I suspect he will, I wonder if it will prompt the groups to go all in on Don Samuels in Minnesota.

From your lips to God’s ears. Not impressed when Omar swanned into her daughter’s campus to call 19-year-old Jewish students “pro-genocide” and pose with that student who brags about fighting his Zionist classmates to kill.

Be careful what you wish for; as horrible as Omar is, Samuels is far worse

Isn't he just a generic mediocre conservadem with a lot of skeletons in his closet? I don't think he'd be nearly as much of a long-term problem for the Dems as Omar is.

[wnwnwn]

Jamaal Bowman will already be on the ballot in November as the candidate of NY's Working Families Party.  In New York, candidates can run in the primaries of other parties and have two (2) lines on the ballot in the General Election, provided that they have a Wilson-Pekula waiver from the Chairman of the party they are not registered to vote in.

What happens if Latimer wins the primary, but Bowman remains on the ballot for the general election?  Could Bowman win as the Working Families Party nominee?  It's not unthinkable, and some Democrats have pulled this off.  Joe Lieberman did in 2006 in CT.  Joe Moakley, a Democrat running as an Independent, upset Rep. Louise Day Hicks (D-Boston) in the 1972 General.  Bowman is the kind of guy to not merely concede, and given that NY-16 will be 30% Trump in a GREAT REPUBLICAN year, Bowman would not likely be causing a Republican to win the district.  

Could Bowman get to 40% as the WFP candidate in the GENERAL election?  I think it's possible if he runs up a big vote in the NYC portion of the district.  He won't get a dime from the House Democratic Campaign Committee, but he may be supported by progressive sources.

It could be like the fictional situation I created in my NYC2032 timeline: A republican-democrat-socialist? three way, with the difference that the republican in this case would have bigger posibilities of winning (the district voted 27% for Trump in 2020).

[AtorBoltox]

https://twitter.com/GoodVibePolitik/status/1801808391049802200

Wtf is "fedjacketing"? Can you please post stuff that uses normal language and not something that sounds like the ramblings of a potential mass shooter?

[MyLifeIsYours]

https://twitter.com/GoodVibePolitik/status/1801808391049802200

Wtf is "fedjacketing"? Can you please post stuff that uses normal language and not something that sounds like the ramblings of a potential mass shooter?

Fed agents hijacking social justice movements. The Communist Party USA of today has been said to be infatuated with feds posing as members.

[Horus]

Yes, Latimer beats him 56-44.

Bowman but he won't win. The smear campaign has been effective, the district's demographics are unfavorable and he's had some own goals as well. Removing immigrant heavy Wakefield and replacing it with Co-op city doesn't help either. Both areas are heavily Black but the latter is (I think) mostly ADOS seniors, who will probably not be as progressive minded.

Districts such as PA-12 and TX-35 are much better fits for Squad types to hold long term. Not quite as wealthy and not as pro Israel.