French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Nitos Mederandel]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

Welcome to the forum!

[Logical]

Map of all runoff configurations before candidate withdrawals.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/les-cartes-des-legislatives/infographies-resultats-des-legislatives-2024-record-de-triangulaires-duels-contre-le-rn-visualisez-les-configurations-du-second-tour-dans-chaque-circonscription_6631887.html

76 elected in the first round
5 Quadrangulaires
244 RN-NFP-ENS Triangulaires
46 RN-NFP-LR Triangulaires
16 other Triangulaires
67 RN-NFP Duels
32 RN-ENS Duels
28 RN-LR Duels
27 NFP-ENS Duels
5 NFP-LR Duels
2 ENS-LR Duels
29 other Duels

[mubar]

...and when all is said and done, NFP beat RN by 33,000 votes.

Trying to understand this: you've added up all Nouveau Front Populaire votes, dissident left votes, and far left votes, and compared them again a standalone Front National, is that it?

I think at some point during the night the newspaper Ouest-France was counting the vote totals wrong, leading to other outlets and Wikipedia using those numbers (since corrected). There was some double-counting apparently, leading to certain NFP candidates showing multiple times, or something like that. So those were not the correct results.

Official government results (still provisional) unfortunately show Rassemblement National (RN) list 400k votes ahead of Union de la gauche (UG) list, or 29% against 28% of the vote. Since UG list contains almost the entirety of NFP, only with a few SOC, FI, COM and VEC candidates totaling less than 50k votes not in that list, it seems clear that this order doesn't change in the final 1st round results.

Entire France provisional results by list

[Ancestral Republican]

nfp supporters made it clear wont Accept the results if they lose and their supporters will try a french j6 they are a threat to democracy

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

I do have my doubts that voters who have stuck with Macron deapite it all will now massively vote for the Far-Left Front, which includes the literal Communist Party, the Trotskyite Melenchonist party and the neocommunist Greens. Large parts of which are even more pro-Russian than RN and whose program would bankrupt France. Honestly I would've been an Ensemble-abstain voter in this contest.

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

The campaign is officially over, so nothing to expect from today in terms of news. By tomorrow noon we will get the first turnout data, then another update in the mid afternoon, and polls will close at 8pm. Brace yourselves, everyone.

In the meantime, Jaichind posted the chart but here's a simple average of the final polls by the 7 pollsters who looked at the race (field dates ranging between 06/25 and 06/28). Changes shown in parentheses are from 2022 legislatives, while those in brackets are from 2024 EU.

RN+Ciottists: 36.1% (+17.4) [+4.7]
Misc. Far-right: 1.6% (-3.7) [-5.8]

Popular Front: 28.4% (+2.7) [-3.2]
Misc. Left: 1.2% (-2.5) [+0.9]
Far-left: 1% (-0.2) [+0.3]

Macronismo: 20.2% (-6.4) [+5.6]
Misc. Center: 0.7% (-0.5) [+0.7]

LR+DVD: 8.3% (-4.5) [+1]

Others: 2.6% (-2.2) [-4.2]

Turnout: 65.2% (+17.7) [+13.7], leading to an effective qualification threshold of 19.2%

All right, time to look at actual results. I'm gonna want to make my own calculations because I don't really trust the Interior Ministry's categories, but since that's what we have to work off right now, I'll start with that and will refine it later once I've been able to make my own spreadsheet.

Showing <changes from the polling average> then (changes from 2022 legislatives) then [changes from 2024 EU]:

RN+Ciottists: 33.2% <-3> (+14.4) [+1.7]
Misc. Far-right: 1.2% <-0.4> (-4.1) [-6.2]

Popular Front: 28.1% <-0.2> (+2.5) [-3.4]
Misc. Left: 1.6% <+0.4> (-2.1) [+1.3]
Far-left: 1.1% <+0.1> (-0.1) [+0.4]

Macronismo: 21.3% <+1.1> (-5.3) [+6.7]
Misc. Center: 1.2% <+0.5> (=) [+1.2]

LR+DVD: 10.2% <+1.9> (-2.6) [+2.9]

Others: 2.1% <-0.5> (-2.7) [-4.7]

Turnout: 66.7% <+1.5> (+19.2) [+15.2]


Basically, RN underperformed and Macronismo and LR overperformed slightly. Overall still a strong night for French polling.

[Zinneke]

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

This is such a misguided post. I'm probably the Francophone on here who is Mélenchon's harshest critic, I genuinely hold him personally responsible for the dismal state of the French Left, but he is *not* a Communist and his "petty bourgeois" electorate  are not petty bourgeois, even your stereotypical white LFI activists isn't petty bourgeois, they are inner city, high educated but poorly paid and competing for dirt cheap jobs relative to, say, the people that emigrate to America/Canada.

His foreign policy views are obviously atrocious but they are not exclusively to do with anti-Western Communism. It may have escaped you but Europeans are sacrificing their buying power Vs the median American because we pay the American corporate gangster class top dollar for LNG just to fund the forever war with Putin that the usual nutcases like Sikorski were again touting. It's part of an overal sentiment that since the Washington Consensus the EU is being set up to basically be a theme park and consumer market for the dollar, totally deindustrialized and vassalised.

And to go on a rant about far left violence without mentioning the staggering rise in far right violence that goes unreported is just bad faith but it's classic "I'm a liberal but the Left is the bigger danger" rhetoric we hear from Macronistas but now also foreign voices.

I never thought I'd defend the French alter-globalist view the day Belgium Vs France in Euro 2024, but some of the arrogance that the Americans on here shows how ing sheltered a country they are. Like their buying power has stayed relatively untouched Vs the rest of the OECD and yet they're gonna vote in the Cheeto man for a second round. The more I read Atlas the more I regret not voting for the anti-American candidates myself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Map of all runoff configurations before candidate withdrawals.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/les-cartes-des-legislatives/infographies-resultats-des-legislatives-2024-record-de-triangulaires-duels-contre-le-rn-visualisez-les-configurations-du-second-tour-dans-chaque-circonscription_6631887.html

76 elected in the first round
5 Quadrangulaires
244 RN-NFP-ENS Triangulaires
46 RN-NFP-LR Triangulaires
16 other Triangulaires
67 RN-NFP Duels
32 RN-ENS Duels
28 RN-LR Duels
27 NFP-ENS Duels
5 NFP-LR Duels
2 ENS-LR Duels
29 other Duels

Aww, I'm still working on my map about it. Should be hopefully done sometimes today but I guess I can't compete with news outlets.

[Nitos Mederandel]

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

Your views are out of step with the vast majority of French people, if we go by the election results. Taking that into account, I would not be so bold to claim a monopoly on understanding French politics. And I was under the impression that running commentary and political opinions were perfectly adequate for this thread, considering how they are accepted when they are closer to the mainstream of posters on here.

I do get that this is not a thread to debate about this, so I will not respond further, but I do not appreciate calls for banning me and other for expressing a viewpoint simply because you disagree with it.

[Ancestral Republican]

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

Your views are out of step with the vast majority of French people, if we go by the election results. Taking that into account, I would not be so bold to claim a monopoly on understanding French politics. And I was under the impression that running commentary and political opinions were perfectly adequate for this thread, considering how they are accepted when they are closer to the mainstream of posters on here.

I do get that this is not a thread to debate about this, so I will not respond further, but I do not appreciate calls for banning me and other for expressing a viewpoint simply because you disagree with it.

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

[Nitos Mederandel]

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

Keep yapping man. You can lecture Serge Klarsfeld and the Jewish community in France about what Nazism is, since you obviously know so much better than them.

[Ancestral Republican]

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

Keep yapping man. You can lecture Serge Klarsfeld and the Jewish community in France about what Nazism is, since you obviously know so much better than them.

You're still here. Incredible.

[lfromnj]

nfp supporters made it clear wont Accept the results if they lose and their supporters will try a french j6 they are a threat to democracy

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

I do have my doubts that voters who have stuck with Macron deapite it all will now massively vote for the Far-Left Front, which includes the literal Communist Party, the Trotskyite Melenchonist party and the neocommunist Greens. Large parts of which are even more pro-Russian than RN and whose program would bankrupt France. Honestly I would've been an Ensemble-abstain voter in this contest.

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

How is the 3rd post not engaging with the election results ? It’s literally discussing the truth that a large portion of Macronist voters do not like a lot of the left wing candidates and will either abstain or even vote for RN. Don’t forget that most LR voters will also pick RN against a NFP candidate .

[Zinneke]

nfp supporters made it clear wont Accept the results if they lose and their supporters will try a french j6 they are a threat to democracy

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

I do have my doubts that voters who have stuck with Macron deapite it all will now massively vote for the Far-Left Front, which includes the literal Communist Party, the Trotskyite Melenchonist party and the neocommunist Greens. Large parts of which are even more pro-Russian than RN and whose program would bankrupt France. Honestly I would've been an Ensemble-abstain voter in this contest.

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

How is the 3rd post not engaging with the election results ? It’s literally discussing the truth that a large portion of Macronist voters do not like a lot of the left wing candidates and will either abstain or even vote for RN. Don’t forget that most LR voters will also pick RN against a NFP candidate .

Did you not see the breakdown of Macronista transfers from the last Assembly election?

[Ancestral Republican]

nfp supporters made it clear wont Accept the results if they lose and their supporters will try a french j6 they are a threat to democracy

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

I do have my doubts that voters who have stuck with Macron deapite it all will now massively vote for the Far-Left Front, which includes the literal Communist Party, the Trotskyite Melenchonist party and the neocommunist Greens. Large parts of which are even more pro-Russian than RN and whose program would bankrupt France. Honestly I would've been an Ensemble-abstain voter in this contest.

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

How is the 3rd post not engaging with the election results ? It’s literally discussing the truth that a large portion of Macronist voters do not like a lot of the left wing candidates and will either abstain or even vote for RN. Don’t forget that most LR voters will also pick RN against a NFP candidate .

Refer to the first part of my comment.

[lfromnj]

nfp supporters made it clear wont Accept the results if they lose and their supporters will try a french j6 they are a threat to democracy

The sort of imported anti-Western communism that the petty bourgeois cadres of the French left wish to impose upon the country would be a mortal danger for the Republic; you just need to look at the insurrectional protests taking place across the cities. Everyone from the civilized center-left to the right should vote against the Popular Front’s barbaric worldview.

I do have my doubts that voters who have stuck with Macron deapite it all will now massively vote for the Far-Left Front, which includes the literal Communist Party, the Trotskyite Melenchonist party and the neocommunist Greens. Large parts of which are even more pro-Russian than RN and whose program would bankrupt France. Honestly I would've been an Ensemble-abstain voter in this contest.

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

How is the 3rd post not engaging with the election results ? It’s literally discussing the truth that a large portion of Macronist voters do not like a lot of the left wing candidates and will either abstain or even vote for RN. Don’t forget that most LR voters will also pick RN against a NFP candidate .

Did you not see the breakdown of Macronista transfers from the last Assembly election?

That’s last election ? A lot has happened since then . Polls from what I saw a week ago showed pretty favorable vote transfers. Now post 1st round transfers show a closer to tied election except with LFI. Some of this I guess is because the left is already defeated and can’t get a majority so a decent portion of Macronist voters are going with the left while few are going for RN.

https://twitter.com/clement_mci/status/1807683557155885493?s=46

[lfromnj]

I also love all the whining about personal politics in this thread when there’s basically a post every page using the words Panzergirl.

[Red Velvet]

There’s nothing more tiring than conservatives posing as moderate centrists zzzzz. At least the proud right-wingers show who they are.

If you dislike Melénchon views more strongly than you dislike Le Pen views, then you clearly HAVE a side and it’s useless trying to convince the left to appeal to you. Just support RN without going through the whole act of “Ohhh if the Left wasn’t the Left then maybe I would support the Left”.

I think it’s funny though that Melénchon being against escalation in Ukraine War - even as he hypocritically defends sending more weapons - is somehow seen as a “radical” anti-western positioning though when the prolonging and larger scale of the conflict only is bad for Europe interests themselves hahaha.

It’s like Europeans have completely given up their sovereignty to be just irrelevant extensions of the USA. Because it’s simply not worth it for Europe to keep long-term bad relationship with Russia - unlike USA who can afford it and doesn’t have to worry much about the consequences of escalation.

It’s interesting that more nationalist segments - even light-weight ones - from both in the left and in the right are the ones who get accused on being at Putin’s side basically for thinking on their own countries interest first, while it’s the supposedly “globalist center” that somehow feels entitled on posing as the sole defenders of the West while Europe currently crumbles after years under their own leadership lol

Somehow it’s always the fault of the “far-left” or the “far-right” that never really held power before. Who was exactly in charge all these years, then? Because I could swear it was the same bunch of unimaginative ~moderate~ technocrats.

[axiomsofdominion]

The left parties, even with the threat of Melenchon scaring normies, really smahed it out of the park compared to expectations.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In between Fabian Roussel's defeat and François Ruffin's poor result it seems like a very good result for melenchon's status as leader of the French Left?

I also love all the whining about personal politics in this thread when there’s basically a post every page using the words Panzergirl.

It's called atlas culture, learn to integrate

[adma]

The left parties, even with the threat of Melenchon scaring normies, really smahed it out of the park compared to expectations.

Of course, it's an illusion thanks to the Parisian thumb on the scale, and to the RN figure not including the Ciotti crowd...

[OSR stands with Israel]

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

Your views are out of step with the vast majority of French people, if we go by the election results. Taking that into account, I would not be so bold to claim a monopoly on understanding French politics. And I was under the impression that running commentary and political opinions were perfectly adequate for this thread, considering how they are accepted when they are closer to the mainstream of posters on here.

I do get that this is not a thread to debate about this, so I will not respond further, but I do not appreciate calls for banning me and other for expressing a viewpoint simply because you disagree with it.

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

RN aren’t Nazis . Unless of course you believe in the principles of “judge the kid for their father’s sins” . Not very liberal isn’t it

[Zinneke]

[Ancestral Republican]

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

Your views are out of step with the vast majority of French people, if we go by the election results. Taking that into account, I would not be so bold to claim a monopoly on understanding French politics. And I was under the impression that running commentary and political opinions were perfectly adequate for this thread, considering how they are accepted when they are closer to the mainstream of posters on here.

I do get that this is not a thread to debate about this, so I will not respond further, but I do not appreciate calls for banning me and other for expressing a viewpoint simply because you disagree with it.

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

RN aren’t Nazis . Unless of course you believe in the principles of “judge the kid for their father’s sins” . Not very liberal isn’t it

Whatever helps you sleep at night, buddy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

...We really need a ban in this thread on people who clearly don't understand French politics and have no interest in engaging with the election news and results (the purpose of the thread.)

Your views are out of step with the vast majority of French people, if we go by the election results. Taking that into account, I would not be so bold to claim a monopoly on understanding French politics. And I was under the impression that running commentary and political opinions were perfectly adequate for this thread, considering how they are accepted when they are closer to the mainstream of posters on here.

I do get that this is not a thread to debate about this, so I will not respond further, but I do not appreciate calls for banning me and other for expressing a viewpoint simply because you disagree with it.

Guy who thinks people should vote for Nazis to stop "petty bourgeois insurrectionalists" wants to lecture others on their views, lol. Give us a break. Probably a wise choice you duck out of the thread.

RN aren’t Nazis . Unless of course you believe in the principles of “judge the kid for their father’s sins” . Not very liberal isn’t it

Whatever helps you sleep at night, buddy.

We have had literally Jewish liberal posters on here say they would back Le Pen over Macron let alone the left  so maybe you should think to your self why that is