French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

Agreed. Not sure whether he has to name a RN prime minister then, but the election probably makes him an even more lame duck than he already was. A bad day for EU when France is increasingly not to govern.

If RN wins an absolute majority, he will have to appoint Bardella, or else trigger a constitutional crisis. If RN just wins a plurality, things can get really tricky. Still hard to see what alternative coalition he could cobble together.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

Agreed. Not sure whether he has to name a RN prime minister then, but the election probably makes him an even more lame duck than he already was. A bad day for EU when France is increasingly not to govern.

If RN wins an absolute majority, he will have to appoint Bardella, or else trigger a constitutional crisis. If RN just wins a plurality, things can get really tricky. Still hard to see what alternative coalition he could cobble together.

Do you think there's any scenario here in which Macron resigns?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

Agreed. Not sure whether he has to name a RN prime minister then, but the election probably makes him an even more lame duck than he already was. A bad day for EU when France is increasingly not to govern.

If RN wins an absolute majority, he will have to appoint Bardella, or else trigger a constitutional crisis. If RN just wins a plurality, things can get really tricky. Still hard to see what alternative coalition he could cobble together.

Do you think there's any scenario here in which Macron resigns?

I find it very hard to believe, but to be fair I also found a dissolution very hard to believe, so who the f**k knows anymore

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

really feels like a head-scratching gamble, but I do agree it seems most likely he wants to try and cause RN to crumble under the weight of governance while he can hold them back as well as he can as President for 3 years. The question is if he can manage to actually pin the blame of the near-certain dysfunction this would cause onto RN. Because if not...

[President Johnson]

On the other hand, Macron probably hopes a RN victory and them being in government makes them more unpopular. Outside government, only he's blamed for everything that goes wrong. Maybe he believes that makes it easier to keep LePen out of the Elysee.

[Flats the Flounder]

If I remember my comp gov class from college correctly, the French PM is the de facto leader if the President's party loses control of the parliament? Or do I have that mixed up?

[The Mikado]

So what DOES happen with an RN plurality? If they win, say, 45% of seats, could they form a minority government? Would LRs support them from outside?

[President Johnson]

If I remember my comp gov class from college correctly, the French PM is the de facto leader if the President's party loses control of the parliament? Or do I have that mixed up?

It's more complex. Foreign policy still mainly rests with the president. The prime minister has more responsibilities in domestic policy.

Also depends on whether the opposition is unified in a majority against the president or whether it's essentially a hung parliament, as the case since Macron's second term begun in 2022. With an absolute majority, the main opposition party could technically pass laws on their own as I read it. And the president only has a suspensive veto that can be overriden with a simple majority instead of two-thirds like in the US.

[SunSt0rm]

I wonder what will happen when RN+allies, LREM+LR and left bloc can't get a majority. Are LR still not open for RN?

[Zinneke]

I wonder what will happen when RN+allies, LREM+LR and left bloc can't get a majority. Are LR still not open for RN?

Some in LR are open to RN, some would leave instantly, basically rendering the party obsolete or testimonial

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

[Cassius]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

Jupiter is mercurial.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

He basically said that he had to give a voice to the people again after such a defeat for pro-EU forces. In a vacuum, an honorable sentiment. Less so when it risks bolstering the far-right.

[Logical]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

He basically said that he had to give a voice to the people again after such a defeat for pro-EU forces. In a vacuum, an honorable sentiment. Less so when it risks bolstering the far-right.

I think he believes that bolstering them a bit in the short term will mean they end up less bolstered in the longer term. And since them being bolstered in the longer term would be especially bad, it is better to bolster them in the short term.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

Jupiter is mercurial.

My bad, it was wrong of me to question the judgment of Napoléon IV.

[Hash]

Unless my understanding of the code électoral is wrong, there's no legal way for there to be a first round on June 30:

Article L157
Les déclarations de candidatures doivent être déposées, en double exemplaire, à la préfecture au plus tard à 18 heures le quatrième vendredi précédant le jour du scrutin.
(Declarations of candidacy must be submitted, in duplicate, to the prefecture no later than 6 p.m. on the fourth Friday preceding polling day.)

In 2022, for a June 12 first round, the candidacy deadline was May 20. Moreover, there's a two week (rather than one week) gap between both rounds in the expat constituencies, which would require a first round in the expat seats on June 22-23.

The candidacy deadline for a June 30 first round would have been... June 7.

My bad: article 12 of the constitution says that elections after a dissolution take place, at the earliest, 20 days later. Therefore, June 30 is basically the earliest possible date.

That still leaves a contradiction between the electoral law and the constitution. I'd image the candidacy deadline will be very soon - by the end of the week?

Somebody can correct me, but it'll probably be the shortest legislative electoral campaign under the Fifth Republic: in 1968, de Gaulle dissolved on May 30 for an election beginning on June 23. In 1997, there was a bit over a month between Chirac's dissolution and the first round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has Macron said why? I know we're all confused, but surely he's given a reason for this disollution, right?

He basically said that he had to give a voice to the people again after such a defeat for pro-EU forces. In a vacuum, an honorable sentiment. Less so when it risks bolstering the far-right.

I think he believes that bolstering them a bit in the short term will mean they end up less bolstered in the longer term. And since them being bolstered in the longer term would be especially bad, it is better to bolster them in the short term.

Maybe, but these 3d chess calculations almost never pan out in practice. All we know right now is that there's a decent chance of a far-right government in the next 3 years.

[DL]

Did you know that in 1974, President Pompidou died unexpectedly and the first round of the 1974 French presidential election took place literally three weeks later! Can you imagine a full blown presidential election campaign all happening in three weeks! Americans should take note

[Terry the Fat Shark]

This year is really an election lover's paradise

[parochial boy]

Macron really has been the best president Le Pen could have ever dreamed of.

All the smug liberals who believed his superficial image back in 2017 and 2022 must be feeling proud of themselves. Except no, they’ve also been radicalised out of the sheer refusal to acknowledge they were a part of the problem.

[Hash]

Unless my understanding of the code électoral is wrong, there's no legal way for there to be a first round on June 30:

Article L157
Les déclarations de candidatures doivent être déposées, en double exemplaire, à la préfecture au plus tard à 18 heures le quatrième vendredi précédant le jour du scrutin.
(Declarations of candidacy must be submitted, in duplicate, to the prefecture no later than 6 p.m. on the fourth Friday preceding polling day.)

In 2022, for a June 12 first round, the candidacy deadline was May 20. Moreover, there's a two week (rather than one week) gap between both rounds in the expat constituencies, which would require a first round in the expat seats on June 22-23.

The candidacy deadline for a June 30 first round would have been... June 7.

My bad: article 12 of the constitution says that elections after a dissolution take place, at the earliest, 20 days later. Therefore, June 30 is basically the earliest possible date.

That still leaves a contradiction between the electoral law and the constitution. I'd image the candidacy deadline will be very soon - by the end of the week?

Somebody can correct me, but it'll probably be the shortest legislative electoral campaign under the Fifth Republic: in 1968, de Gaulle dissolved on May 30 for an election beginning on June 23. In 1997, there was a bit over a month between Chirac's dissolution and the first round.

In 1981, somebody took Mitterrand's dissolution decree to the Constitutional Council saying the campaign (May 22 dissolution decree, May 31 declaration deadline, June 14 election) was too short - the law at the time set the declaration deadline 21 days prior to the election - and the Council ruling was essentially "we don't care, it's constitutionally valid, besides the law doesn't apply to dissolutions". I assume if this decree is challenged, then neither the Council of State or the ConCoun will want to rock the boat and effectively say "we don't care, go away".

In other words, this very short campaign is constitutionally legal but is extremely arbitrary and very contemptuous towards parties and potential candidates - particularly the left, which comes out divided from the EP elections and now has basically just a week to get back together and recreate a sort of Nupes 2.0 or face electoral annihilation if they're divided (and, unlike in 2022, nobody has a strong claim to be the leading force of the left). A classic Macron move.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what DOES happen with an RN plurality? If they win, say, 45% of seats, could they form a minority government? Would LRs support them from outside?

We have no idea. France doesn't have much experience with minority governments, especially minority governments opposed to the sitting president. If RN fails to win a majority, Macron might have a lot of leeway in how he wants to play it, though all possible moves will have huge downsides.

[Flyersfan232]

Macron really has been the best president Le Pen could have ever dreamed of.

All the smug liberals who believed his superficial image back in 2017 and 2022 must be feeling proud of themselves. Except no, they’ve also been radicalised out of the sheer refusal to acknowledge they were a part of the problem.

reminds me of someone else from canada

[Flyersfan232]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

Agreed. Not sure whether he has to name a RN prime minister then, but the election probably makes him an even more lame duck than he already was. A bad day for EU when France is increasingly not to govern.

If RN wins an absolute majority, he will have to appoint Bardella, or else trigger a constitutional crisis. If RN just wins a plurality, things can get really tricky. Still hard to see what alternative coalition he could cobble together.

rn could just make le pen leader again of the party and marcon will be force to appoint her