2025 Canadian election

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

These are the most likely to run for Liberal leadership, should Justin Trudeau agree to step down/be pushed through a window...

1.Chrystia Freeland
2.Anita Anand
3.Melanie Joly
4.Francois Phillippe Champagne
5.Dominic LeBlanc
6.Sean Fraser

I think there is also a possibility Nate Erskine Smith runs from the back benches as a person who has been critical of the Liberal government and with an organization from having run for the Ontario Liberal leadership, however he's generally even more left wing than Justin Trudeau.

And, I think there has been something of a rehabilitation attempt from some right leaning columnists, and most Canadian columnists are right leaning, for Bill Morneau.

You forgot Mark Carney!...and i think there is zero chance Chrystia Freeland would run for leader. She has non-existent retail political skills, has been a total flop as finance minister and by all accounts is looking for another job and won't run again next year

I don't take this talk of Mark Carney seriously. Of course, I've been wrong before, I didn't think Naheed Nenshi would run for the Alberta NDP leadership. But, I think Mark Carney is a fever dream of some Liberals and some business section journalists/columnists.

If anything, I think he's mentioned as a sort of stalking horse for Bill Morneau, who I think would like to make a comeback. For one thing, you wouldn't know it from his tenure as finance minister, but Morneau has a masters in economics. So, he and Carney have somewhat similar backgrounds.

I also expect the NDP is going to want to get out of their agreement with the Liberals, which means if Trudeau does go, we'll likely go from a quick mid summer Liberal leadership race right into having an early fall election. Mark Carney would have to have a massive ego to think he could lead the Liberal Party through an immediate snap election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Carney could very well run for leader, but just not this time. Sinking ship and all that.

And agreed; if Freeland runs, it would be a massive mistake on her part.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Carney could very well run for leader, but just not this time. Sinking ship and all that.

And agreed; if Freeland runs, it would be a massive mistake on her part.

Well, Lester Pearson, who to be fair had already been an M.P, ran for leader of the sinking ship in 1958 after the Liberals lost the 1957 election under Louis St. Laurent. After winning the leadership Pearson called on Prime Minister Diefenbaker to step down as Prime Minister and hand power back to the Liberals. Diefenbaker called a snap election and won the biggest percentage seat majority in Canadian history.

[DL]

I also expect the NDP is going to want to get out of their agreement with the Liberals, which means if Trudeau does go, we'll likely go from a quick mid summer Liberal leadership race right into having an early fall election. Mark Carney would have to have a massive ego to think he could lead the Liberal Party through an immediate snap election.

Not so fast...just because the NDP terminates their agreement with the Liberals doesn't mean there is a snap election. They could still support the government on a case by case basis, the BQ could step in and vote for a budget if the NDP was going to vote against it...also for the government to fall there has to be a confidence vote and those usually can only happen at very specific times such as a Throne speech or a budget vote etc...The NDP could declare the agreement with the Liberals dead tomorrow and we could still not vote until Fall 2025

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I also expect the NDP is going to want to get out of their agreement with the Liberals, which means if Trudeau does go, we'll likely go from a quick mid summer Liberal leadership race right into having an early fall election. Mark Carney would have to have a massive ego to think he could lead the Liberal Party through an immediate snap election.

Not so fast...just because the NDP terminates their agreement with the Liberals doesn't mean there is a snap election. They could still support the government on a case by case basis, the BQ could step in and vote for a budget if the NDP was going to vote against it...also for the government to fall there has to be a confidence vote and those usually can only happen at very specific times such as a Throne speech or a budget vote etc...The NDP could declare the agreement with the Liberals dead tomorrow and we could still not vote until Fall 2025

I know there are other people in the government, but I think this sort of thing would be very difficult for a rookie M.P like Mark Carney to pull off.  All the more reason why I don't think he'll run.

Obviously I can see your scenario, but it also has whiffs of the Paul Martin 'just survive' ethos from 2004-2006. Certainly I would think a new Liberal leader would be strongest right after winning the leadership. If the Liberals had a majority government, that could be different.

In regards to Chrystia Freeland, I could be wrong, but I think there could be a large gender divide in views on her.

[DL]

I cannot think of a worse choice for Liberal leader than Freeland. She has no communications skills whatsoever. She comes across as haughty, arrogant, elitist and condescending - and those are just her good points. She also has a grating voice that is like fingernails down a blackboard. Why would the Liberals make her leader when they can just jump into a six foot hole in the ground?

...and women are often very hard on other women in politics. Women i know also find her totally unattractive

[MaxQue]

These are the most likely to run for Liberal leadership, should Justin Trudeau agree to step down/be pushed through a window...

1.Chrystia Freeland
2.Anita Anand
3.Melanie Joly
4.Francois Phillippe Champagne
5.Dominic LeBlanc
6.Sean Fraser

I think there is also a possibility Nate Erskine Smith runs from the back benches as a person who has been critical of the Liberal government and with an organization from having run for the Ontario Liberal leadership, however he's generally even more left wing than Justin Trudeau.

And, I think there has been something of a rehabilitation attempt from some right leaning columnists, and most Canadian columnists are right leaning, for Bill Morneau.

You forgot Mark Carney!...and i think there is zero chance Chrystia Freeland would run for leader. She has non-existent retail political skills, has been a total flop as finance minister and by all accounts is looking for another job and won't run again next year

I don't take this talk of Mark Carney seriously. Of course, I've been wrong before, I didn't think Naheed Nenshi would run for the Alberta NDP leadership. But, I think Mark Carney is a fever dream of some Liberals and some business section journalists/columnists.

If anything, I think he's mentioned as a sort of stalking horse for Bill Morneau, who I think would like to make a comeback. For one thing, you wouldn't know it from his tenure as finance minister, but Morneau has a masters in economics. So, he and Carney have somewhat similar backgrounds.

I also expect the NDP is going to want to get out of their agreement with the Liberals, which means if Trudeau does go, we'll likely go from a quick mid summer Liberal leadership race right into having an early fall election. Mark Carney would have to have a massive ego to think he could lead the Liberal Party through an immediate snap election.

People who want Morneau should push Carney. There is no way that Morneau, a man who was fighting government policy from the inside to push policy favourable to his former customers and wanted to tax employee discounts gets anywhere in the party.

[Pericles]

With a leadership change, I guess the question is whether there is someone who can reset the government and turn around the drags on the Liberal brand. Just a change of face for the same party and government is not going to help and rarely does.

[Compuzled_One]

I'm not familiar with Canadian politics, but I do know that in the UK, polls usually end up narrowing in favor of the Tories come election time. Does the same occur with the Liberals, since they, like the Tories, are the dominant party?

[CumbrianLefty]

Its far from universal in either case - at best it is a *tendency*.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

With a leadership change, I guess the question is whether there is someone who can reset the government and turn around the drags on the Liberal brand. Just a change of face for the same party and government is not going to help and rarely does.

If nothing else, it would force the Conservatives to have to refocus their attention on the new leader, and give the new leader a little window of opportunity to define themselves. Trudeau can't re-define himself now, I'm more convinced than ever that he's reached a point of toxicity that Canadian First Ministers often do by the end of their mandate, that nothing he says or does will go over well with voters. With a new leader, at the very least, Poilievre going around saying a noun, a verb, and Justin Trudeau won't be as effective.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I heard Wayne Easter interviewed last night on A Little More Conversation on Chorus last night. Of the 6 candidates I listed, he mentioned 3: Anita Anand, Francois Phillippe Champagne and Sean Fraser. These three candidates have little to no connection to Justin Trudeau, whereas the other three, Chrystia Freeland, Melanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc all have close connections with Justin Trudeau. I'm sure this wasn't a coincidence.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The first of the knives seem to be coming out:

Liberal MP Wayne Long calls on Trudeau to resign 'for the good of our country'


Of note: Wayne Long has opposed the government on some issues in the past, and he's a relatively unknown backbencher. He represents a very marginal seat in New Brunswick that would almost certainly flip Conservative if an election were held today. So it's not surprising that he would be the first to call for Trudeau's resignation, but as these things tend to go, this will likely embolden other MPs who may be thinking the same.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Then there's this:

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1806803778487627989

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

The first of the knives seem to be coming out:

Liberal MP Wayne Long calls on Trudeau to resign 'for the good of our country'


Of note: Wayne Long has opposed the government on some issues in the past, and he's a relatively unknown backbencher. He represents a very marginal seat in New Brunswick that would almost certainly flip Conservative if an election were held today. So it's not surprising that he would be the first to call for Trudeau's resignation, but as these things tend to go, this will likely embolden other MPs who may be thinking the same.

Wayne Long isn't running again.