Iranian Presidential Election, 2024

[TheReckoning]

Might as well start this thread.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, what do we know for certain about what the field looks like?

[Ricardian1485]

If anyone has any deep insights this might be the time to give them.


The most recent polls on Wikipedia show the reformist backed candidate Pezeshkian winning by one digit margins, but I have also seen people call him a fake reformist.

Also this is Iran so who knows how much the regime decided to interfere this time.

[Samof94]

If anyone has any deep insights this might be the time to give them.


The most recent polls on Wikipedia show the reformist backed candidate Pezeshkian winning by one digit margins, but I have also seen people call him a fake reformist.

Also this is Iran so who knows how much the regime decided to interfere this time.

Raisi-like figures are basically trying to be the most hardline possible in a dick-measuring contest.

[Mike88]

If anyone has any deep insights this might be the time to give them.


The most recent polls on Wikipedia show the reformist backed candidate Pezeshkian winning by one digit margins, but I have also seen people call him a fake reformist.

Also this is Iran so who knows how much the regime decided to interfere this time.

If no one gets a majority on the first round, a runoff is set for 5 July.

Polls close in around 3 hours.

[Ricardian1485]

The two main principlist candidates are getting more support combined than Pezeshkian, so even if he gets first place in the first round, this could end up like 2005, where Rafsanjani won in the first round but lost the second round to Ahmadinejad.

[TheReckoning]

Hardliner Jalili is leading, per preliminary reports.

[TheReckoning]

Interesting how despite how much Iran is talked about in media, this election has garnered rather little attention.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1806965588452901293

[Battista Minola 1616]

Yesterday I saw an Italian TV news service on this election. Iranians came off as pretty disillusioned (quelle surprise...). An Iranian political analyst said that Pezeshkian was ahead and that the regime clearing his candidacy was a sign of a change in strategy, trying to spur political participation and with an eye to the country's worsening economic situation and Khamenei's proximate end. Turnout was apparently the lowest ever so it looks like the regime did not achieve its aims.

[Mike88]

Just 39.9% turnout. If turnout rises in the 2nd round, Pezeshkian might have a chance after all.

[Stuart98]

I'm surprised Pezeshkian won the plurality with turnout that low.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting how despite how much Iran is talked about in media, this election has garnered rather little attention.

Given turnout, that seems to be the case in Iran as well.

[jaichind]

I believe Ghalibaf has endorsed Jalili for the second  round.   

[Ricardian1485]

Two unspecified Iranian officials confirmed to The New York Times on June 28 that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani called on Jalili to withdraw from the race during an emergency meeting with Jalili and Ghalibaf in Mashhad, Iran, on June 26.[4] Ghaani reportedly stated that Ghalibaf is better qualified than Jalili to run the government because of his “military background and pragmatic outlook.”[5] Ghaani’s characterization of Ghalibaf as “pragmatic” is consistent with recent Western reports that some IRGC factions are trying to prevent Jalili from winning the election because they regard him as “too hardline.”[6] Ghaani’s intervention also highlights hardliners’ concerns that Pezeshkian could pose a real threat to Jalili and Ghalibaf in the election. The New York Times later deleted its report about Ghaani’s meeting with Jalili and Ghalibaf without providing an explanation.

[TheReckoning]

I believe Ghalibaf has endorsed Jalili for the second  round.   

Who would you support in this election?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I doubt Pezeshkian will be allowed to win, but I'm impressed that he made it to a second round at least.

[TheReckoning]

I doubt Pezeshkian will be allowed to win, but I'm impressed that he made it to a second round at least.

Iranian elections are pretty fair once a candidate has been approved.

[Ricardian1485]

I doubt Pezeshkian will be allowed to win, but I'm impressed that he made it to a second round at least.

Iranian elections are pretty fair once a candidate has been approved.

2009 wasn't

[Dan the Roman]

I doubt Pezeshkian will be allowed to win, but I'm impressed that he made it to a second round at least.

Iranian elections are pretty fair once a candidate has been approved.

2009 wasn't

Mousavi was not just a peer of Khamenei - PM while Khamenei was President, but had very clearly been Khomeini's favorite between the two of them.

It was a confluence of factors that led to Mousavi's candidacy challenging Khamenei's legitimacy in two ways. Politically, but also theologically given it had transformed into a proxy battle between Montezeri and Misbah-Yazdi.

I don't think Rafsanjani was planning to replace Khamenei with a Montezari restoration, but there were good reasons for Khamenei to fear that Mousavi defeating Ahmadinejad by 20% would release forces he could not control.