2025 Canadian election

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Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.

Another "scare" on a provincial level: George Pirie's landslide defeat of Gilles Bisson in Timmins provincially in '22.  (That is, PP could thank Doug Ford for the strategic assist.) 

I do wonder whether the retirement and redistribution is preparation for a candidate of perhaps star-level FN background in Charlie's place--but because this is Northern Ontario and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, I fear that that may lay the foundation for a Kenora/Desnethe situation where the electorate is henceforth terminally racially polarized...

[adma]

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.

Another "scare" on a provincial level: George Pirie's landslide defeat of Gilles Bisson in Timmins provincially in '22.  (That is, PP could thank Doug Ford for the strategic assist.)  

I do wonder whether the retirement and redistribution is preparation for a candidate of perhaps star-level FN background in Charlie's place--but because this is Northern Ontario and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, I fear that that may lay the foundation for a Kenora/Desnethe situation where the electorate is henceforth terminally racially polarized...

If the NDP can convince Timmins city councillor Kristin Murray to run, I think they would win.  She was briefly appointed mayor, but she is also the councillor who has received the most votes in the last 2 elections, she's Indigenous. I just don't know if she speaks French.. and with Kapuskasing and Hearst now being added here, you really do need someone bilingual. You essentially need someone to hit those three boxes now (English, French and Indigenous, who also comes from/lives in Timmins, as it has the majority of the population) for this riding. I'm not as worried about the Conservatives here because provincially, the riding is only the city of Timmins, and also they had no Liberal candidate (so all the Liberal supporters voted Con to stop Gilles).

Yeah, and esp. w/the Kap/Hearst corridor now in the riding, Charlie might have seen the dodgy-French problem that plagued his leadership bid looming all over again.  And in a way, I can see a Kristin Murray following Angus's larger-than-life footsteps a little like similarly-municipal-backgrounded Cindy Forster (successfully) following in Peter Kormos' larger-than-life provincial footsteps in Welland.

Also, who knows whether being Indigenous is necessarily such a burden now that Wab Kinew's demonstrated a more disarming way to power.  (And one might even say that Angus himself was latterly hobbled by proxy due to his own active stance on the FN file--or, the CPC/PPC vote as a slow-burn backlash to his "pandering" to such interests.)

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The first of the knives seem to be coming out:

Liberal MP Wayne Long calls on Trudeau to resign 'for the good of our country'


Of note: Wayne Long has opposed the government on some issues in the past, and he's a relatively unknown backbencher. He represents a very marginal seat in New Brunswick that would almost certainly flip Conservative if an election were held today. So it's not surprising that he would be the first to call for Trudeau's resignation, but as these things tend to go, this will likely embolden other MPs who may be thinking the same.

Wayne Long isn't running again.

And he also seems like the kind who, if he *did* run again, would be welcomed into the Conservative big tent no problem.  (Emphasis on "big tent")

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Are there any safe Liberal seats at all at this point where Carney could run?  

Not going to name particular seats because you can think of a reason for all of them if you want to, but I'll add Carney does speak French.

There's four byelections coming up:

Elmwood--Transcona: Nope, this is very much an NDP/CPC race.
Cloverdale--Langley City: I'd put my left kidney on the Tories winning this one.
Halifax: LPC/NDP marginal, too risky to parachute into
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun: Normally a safe Liberal seat, strong NDP candidate but Carney would be a strong Liberal candidate. No Liberal nominee yet. And Carney speaks French, you say...

None of those are good fits, I think. I think he lives in Ottawa, so he could run in my riding, Ottawa South. But even this riding could finally turn blue.

LSEV *could* make sense, in the same way that Papineau did for Justin--not to mention a la how its predecessor seat did for Paul Martin...