2025 Canadian election

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Not sure why, but 3 NDP MPs announced in a joint press conference they won't be seeking reelection: Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes from Ontario and Rachel Blaney in British Columbia. Charlie Angus has been an M.P since 2004 and Carol Hughes since 2008, but Blaney was first elected in 2015.

Is joint press conferences to announce retirements a new thing? Four members of the Sask Party cabinet jointly announced they wouldn't run again earlier this year.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Doug Ford successfully ran on being pro (private sector) union. While Poilievre is making pretenses of being 'for the working class' (greatly pushed by the mainstream Canadian right wing media) as with everything Poilievre so far there really is no detail.

Of course this explains why the Conservatives voted for the anti scab legislation.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Recent polling suggests Trudeau's announcements aren't helping him that much.  I do wonder if public has just tuned out Liberals at this point and announcements or attacks aren't working.  I think if Trudeau was smart, he would step down at end of session, have a leadership race in summer so no leader in place by fall.  And party would be wise to get someone like Mark Carney who is not tied to current government.

Outside of some economics types on the internet, I don't think most people know who Mark Carney is.

I think the Liberal M.Ps recognize that it wouldn't make a difference to change leaders as they are all considered part of the Trudeau Liberal government and his policies. I believe this is the case for two reasons:

1.According to Politico's Ottawa Playbook, Liberal cabinet ministers if not backbench M.Ps make 'gallows humor' jokes about being fired by the voters.

2.Given the persistent low polling, if there was a demand for change of leader in the Liberal caucus, we would have seen it by now. All there was was the one M.P who was quickly forced to embarrass himself with "what I really meant was..."

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Well, I might be wrong again today (or yesterday and today)
From Max Fawcett quoting from Relay Strategies founder Kyla Ronellenfitsch:

The proposition of a new Liberal party leader isn’t an immediate game changer, but it does breathe new life into the race. Given the possibility of someone other than Justin Trudeau leading the party, the Liberal vote pool increases by 14 points.” The three most attractive traits in any potential new leader are “more economic-focused, “not close to Justin Trudeau,” and “spent their professional life outside of politics.” The least attractive traits, by far? “Close friend or ally of Justin Trudeau” and “minister in Trudeau’s cabinet.”

Fawcett concludes: that sounds like a prescription for more Carney.

Carney apparently speaks fluent French.

I'd be interested in seeing polling data on Bill Morneau, who clearly has tried to establish his independence from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. I don't know if he even has any interest or if he's rehabilitated his image to most Canadians, but I've commented before that there do seem to be some in the media who are promoting him over Trudeau. (Of course, I've been wrong twice here in the last one/two days.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

All or at least most candidate nominations for federal and provincial office are mentioned on this on twitter/X and website
https://twitter.com/cdnelxnstracker/status/1752432869946122372

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

These are the most likely to run for Liberal leadership, should Justin Trudeau agree to step down/be pushed through a window...

1.Chrystia Freeland
2.Anita Anand
3.Melanie Joly
4.Francois Phillippe Champagne
5.Dominic LeBlanc
6.Sean Fraser

I think there is also a possibility Nate Erskine Smith runs from the back benches as a person who has been critical of the Liberal government and with an organization from having run for the Ontario Liberal leadership, however he's generally even more left wing than Justin Trudeau.

And, I think there has been something of a rehabilitation attempt from some right leaning columnists, and most Canadian columnists are right leaning, for Bill Morneau.

I've mentioned I think it was here before I guy I knew in junior high school, sort of a friend, died from being pushed through a window. A very strange story, the investigating police officer originally said that it was an accident, that he was drunk and crashed through the window, and then a few years later it turned out the police officer engaged in a coverup and he really was murdered. I don't think this has ever been resolved.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

These are the most likely to run for Liberal leadership, should Justin Trudeau agree to step down/be pushed through a window...

1.Chrystia Freeland
2.Anita Anand
3.Melanie Joly
4.Francois Phillippe Champagne
5.Dominic LeBlanc
6.Sean Fraser

I think there is also a possibility Nate Erskine Smith runs from the back benches as a person who has been critical of the Liberal government and with an organization from having run for the Ontario Liberal leadership, however he's generally even more left wing than Justin Trudeau.

And, I think there has been something of a rehabilitation attempt from some right leaning columnists, and most Canadian columnists are right leaning, for Bill Morneau.

You forgot Mark Carney!...and i think there is zero chance Chrystia Freeland would run for leader. She has non-existent retail political skills, has been a total flop as finance minister and by all accounts is looking for another job and won't run again next year

I don't take this talk of Mark Carney seriously. Of course, I've been wrong before, I didn't think Naheed Nenshi would run for the Alberta NDP leadership. But, I think Mark Carney is a fever dream of some Liberals and some business section journalists/columnists.

If anything, I think he's mentioned as a sort of stalking horse for Bill Morneau, who I think would like to make a comeback. For one thing, you wouldn't know it from his tenure as finance minister, but Morneau has a masters in economics. So, he and Carney have somewhat similar backgrounds.

I also expect the NDP is going to want to get out of their agreement with the Liberals, which means if Trudeau does go, we'll likely go from a quick mid summer Liberal leadership race right into having an early fall election. Mark Carney would have to have a massive ego to think he could lead the Liberal Party through an immediate snap election.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Carney could very well run for leader, but just not this time. Sinking ship and all that.

And agreed; if Freeland runs, it would be a massive mistake on her part.

Well, Lester Pearson, who to be fair had already been an M.P, ran for leader of the sinking ship in 1958 after the Liberals lost the 1957 election under Louis St. Laurent. After winning the leadership Pearson called on Prime Minister Diefenbaker to step down as Prime Minister and hand power back to the Liberals. Diefenbaker called a snap election and won the biggest percentage seat majority in Canadian history.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I also expect the NDP is going to want to get out of their agreement with the Liberals, which means if Trudeau does go, we'll likely go from a quick mid summer Liberal leadership race right into having an early fall election. Mark Carney would have to have a massive ego to think he could lead the Liberal Party through an immediate snap election.

Not so fast...just because the NDP terminates their agreement with the Liberals doesn't mean there is a snap election. They could still support the government on a case by case basis, the BQ could step in and vote for a budget if the NDP was going to vote against it...also for the government to fall there has to be a confidence vote and those usually can only happen at very specific times such as a Throne speech or a budget vote etc...The NDP could declare the agreement with the Liberals dead tomorrow and we could still not vote until Fall 2025

I know there are other people in the government, but I think this sort of thing would be very difficult for a rookie M.P like Mark Carney to pull off.  All the more reason why I don't think he'll run.

Obviously I can see your scenario, but it also has whiffs of the Paul Martin 'just survive' ethos from 2004-2006. Certainly I would think a new Liberal leader would be strongest right after winning the leadership. If the Liberals had a majority government, that could be different.

In regards to Chrystia Freeland, I could be wrong, but I think there could be a large gender divide in views on her.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I heard Wayne Easter interviewed last night on A Little More Conversation on Chorus last night. Of the 6 candidates I listed, he mentioned 3: Anita Anand, Francois Phillippe Champagne and Sean Fraser. These three candidates have little to no connection to Justin Trudeau, whereas the other three, Chrystia Freeland, Melanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc all have close connections with Justin Trudeau. I'm sure this wasn't a coincidence.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

The first of the knives seem to be coming out:

Liberal MP Wayne Long calls on Trudeau to resign 'for the good of our country'


Of note: Wayne Long has opposed the government on some issues in the past, and he's a relatively unknown backbencher. He represents a very marginal seat in New Brunswick that would almost certainly flip Conservative if an election were held today. So it's not surprising that he would be the first to call for Trudeau's resignation, but as these things tend to go, this will likely embolden other MPs who may be thinking the same.

Wayne Long isn't running again.