Major Hurricane Beryl (Cat 5) heading for Jamaica, threatening Mexico & Texas later
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  Major Hurricane Beryl (Cat 5) heading for Jamaica, threatening Mexico & Texas later		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Major Hurricane Beryl (Cat 5) heading for Jamaica, threatening Mexico & Texas later  (Read 599 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #25 on: July 02, 2024, 08:37:03 AM »
« edited: July 02, 2024, 12:29:55 PM by LAKISYLVANIA »


With 928.2 mb Emily no longer is the strongest july atlantic hurricane (after the storm already became the strongest june atlantic hurricane on record
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #26 on: July 02, 2024, 10:11:01 AM »
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #27 on: July 02, 2024, 12:29:22 PM »
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #28 on: July 02, 2024, 12:57:12 PM »


Landfall looking more & more likely for Jamaica.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #29 on: July 02, 2024, 01:07:49 PM »


Good that it runs into higher shear to help it weaken. It weakens to high end cat 4 hurricane. It has about 1 day left... for further weakening before landfalling Jamaica.



Gilbert in 1988 was the strongest landfalling hurricane in Jamaicas history as a cat 3 hurricane. This one might be more powerful than Gilbert, depending on how much the shear will weaken the hurricane.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #30 on: July 02, 2024, 07:34:41 PM »
Still going strong...

Very confusing atm, because it was expected to weaken quite a bit due to relatively hostile conditions and the hurricane also doesn't look very healthy based on satellite images (the most recent images it looks more energized back again tho). Suffering from high shear, also just did an EWRC but not sure.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #31 on: July 02, 2024, 07:38:55 PM »


Quote
The first is that they either pass north of the island, exposing #Jamaica to the weaker side of the hurricane, like DENNIS 2005. Or, a hurricane passes well south the island, like EMILY 2005, mitigating impacts on the Island.

Unfortunately, the forecast for #BERYL looks to have the center pass right along Jamaica's south coast, exposing the entire island to the much stronger northern side of the hurricane. This is the worst-case scenario. With a direct strike on the island becoming increasingly likely, BERYL may be the first major hurricane landfall in the country since GILBERT 1988.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2024, 07:52:43 PM »
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #33 on: July 02, 2024, 11:03:30 PM »








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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2024, 11:23:41 PM »
Seems like the hurricane is not weakening yet, even some indications that it is slightly strengthening again but no consensus or little confidence. Would say about the same strength, where weakening would have been expected. There is about 12 hours... left for it to weaken before it impacts Jamaica.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #35 on: Today at 06:42:37 AM »
Praying for Jamaica. I'm surprised to hear it strengthening given that windshear. Is it just down to his hot the Caribbean is? I wish I understood meteorology better.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #36 on: Today at 10:38:22 AM »


Seems like it'll narrowly miss the landfall.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #37 on: Today at 12:23:32 PM »
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #38 on: Today at 03:14:15 PM »





I'm amazed by this huricane. It didn't look healthy. It was in hostile conditions. It weakened a bit. And things suddenly changed again, just like yesterday when weakening was also expected. This storm is... just something else.

Unfortunately seems like there'll be widespread damage in Jamaica. Kingston will be overall okay-ish, but other parts of the country are badly affected, and storm surge looks to be damaging overall, and the peak there still has yet to come.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #39 on: Today at 03:28:35 PM »




Not sure whether it'll make landfall, so far narrowly not yet, but might be in southwestern Jamaica.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #40 on: Today at 03:35:19 PM »


It seems like interaction with Jamaica somehow is strengthening it.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #41 on: Today at 08:45:47 PM »
Jamaicas west & south coast got badly hit unfortunately. This will have been damaging.



Meanwhile it still holds on to cat 4 surprisingly, but satellite representation looks bad, shear is increasing, part of the eyewall does not exist anymore. I mean there is no world in which storm does not weaken anymore, it would make no sense anymore. All the models also suggest weakening. It doesn't look good or healthy anymore. That this one even still is a cat 4 is just remarkable.

The conditions are hostile for hurricane development at the moment. Only extremely above average ocean heat content which it can tap from possibly.
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Frodo
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« Reply #42 on: Today at 09:35:40 PM »
Quote from: LAKISYLVANIA on Today at 08:45:47 PM
Jamaicas west & south coast got badly hit unfortunately. This will have been damaging.


Meanwhile it still holds on to cat 4 surprisingly, but satellite representation looks bad, shear is increasing, part of the eyewall does not exist anymore. I mean there is no world in which storm does not weaken anymore, it would make no sense anymore. All the models also suggest weakening. It doesn't look good or healthy anymore. That this one even still is a cat 4 is just remarkable.

The conditions are hostile for hurricane development at the moment. Only extremely above average ocean heat content which it can tap from possibly.

And that is why it will still be a hurricane when it hits the Yucatán Peninsula. 
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