Suffolk Black voters MI/PA: Biden +39, +45

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1802170166962237779?s=46

I could see the trump numbers but Biden will get much higher than the 50s

[GAinDC]

In the poll hype thread for these, the reporter’s tweet said the black vote is “unexpectedly in play” but it looks like two messy polls where Trump’s numbers are still low and Biden just hasn’t consolidated yet. “In play” implies a much closer contest.

More lazy commentary.

[Matty]

These are brutal numbers for Biden, period

Even if he gets *100%* of undecided black voters or current rfk black voters, trump in these polls is already nearly doubling his vote share among blacks.

If trump just gets like 10% of the undecided/rfk black vote, Biden is in trouble

[Fancyarcher]

Cornel West isn't on the ballot in either state, and RFK's not on the ballot in Pennsylvania. This is a joke.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1802171943811985478



Liam has it exactly right. What these polls suggest is that the enthusiasm for Biden among a key democratic electoral group just isn’t there. This could cause serious turnout issues.

Note also that these are n=500 voters for each state, close to statistical robustness.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump should try to make further gains with black voters. If he can just get into the midteens (around 15-16%) and black turnout declines then it should be enough to seal up the election barring a major suburban shift.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump should try to make further gains with black voters. If he can just get into the midteens (around 15-16%) and black turnout declines then it should be enough to seal up the election barring a major suburban shift.

Lol look how 22 turned out, Trump isn't seaking the deal unless its November, and we have much higher D numbers in blue states than red states

11 percent he won't get higher than that

[ajc0918]

A head to head poll would have been interesting to see

[SnowLabrador]

This is a terrible poll for Biden.

[kwabbit]

To give more context, the 2020 recalled was:

76-9 in MI and 76-8 in PA.

So this has Trump gaining 6 points in vote share in MI and 3 points in PA, so not a huge swell in support. The bigger issue for Biden is that they found that the 3rd party vote is sticky and not eager to go back to Biden. In a ranked-choice choice vote, according to information they gave about second choice, it seems like the 3rd parties would be going to Biden/Trump 75-25 or 80-20.

I don't really know what people were expecting with this poll. When you get a ton of crosstabs showing Biden struggling with Black voters, an oversample conducted in the same manner will yield similar results.

[wbrocks67]

Not a great poll on its face for Biden, but given that this is RV, I expect there to be consolidation among the third parties and with LV screens, especially given it seems that the majority of the 3rd party voters pick Biden as their second choice. No doubt that however there is still work to be done to move those 3rd party voters back into the fold.

This poll is a good reason though why we should be skeptical of crosstabs of these groups in other polls. Marist for example had Trump at 23% of the black vote last week. This has him at 11%. That's an extremely meaningful difference. 11% is perfectly believable; 23% is not, even for a small group crosstab.

I will say what is clear among all the oversamples that we've gotten of black voters thus far is that Trump's support (among RV) is about 10-15%. I believe the two other oversamples (Wapo + Black Voter Project) had him at about 13% and 14%, so these numbers line up with that. Meaning that yes, with RV, Trump has made a bit of headway apparently, but it's also not at all the massive racial realignment that some people/polls are anticipating.

[wbrocks67]

It's criminal though that they a) had no LV screen apparently after RV and b) couldn't just be bothered to do a H2H matchup. Also, Cornel West is increasingly unlikely to be on the ballot in either state, so again, we're polling people who aren't on - and are unlikely to be - on the ballot at this point which obscures results.

The 2020 recall stuff is interesting - Biden being at 76% in both shows about a 20% dropoff, which isn't great obviously, but not as bad as the comparison to the exit poll (92%)

This bit though is interesting-

“About 10% of Black voters who voted for Trump in 2020 are now voting for Biden, but only 4% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are voting for Trump," he said.

[oldtimer]

It's criminal though that they a) had no LV screen apparently after RV and b) couldn't just be bothered to do a H2H matchup. Also, Cornel West is increasingly unlikely to be on the ballot in either state, so again, we're polling people who aren't on - and are unlikely to be - on the ballot at this point which obscures results.

The 2020 recall stuff is interesting - Biden being at 76% in both shows about a 20% dropoff, which isn't great obviously, but not as bad as the comparison to the exit poll (92%)

This bit though is interesting-

“About 10% of Black voters who voted for Trump in 2020 are now voting for Biden, but only 4% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are voting for Trump," he said.

Well 10% of 7% is way smaller than 4% of 92%.

However i'm not touching polls or subsamples of African Am.

[wbrocks67]

It's criminal though that they a) had no LV screen apparently after RV and b) couldn't just be bothered to do a H2H matchup. Also, Cornel West is increasingly unlikely to be on the ballot in either state, so again, we're polling people who aren't on - and are unlikely to be - on the ballot at this point which obscures results.

The 2020 recall stuff is interesting - Biden being at 76% in both shows about a 20% dropoff, which isn't great obviously, but not as bad as the comparison to the exit poll (92%)

This bit though is interesting-

“About 10% of Black voters who voted for Trump in 2020 are now voting for Biden, but only 4% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are voting for Trump," he said.

Well 10% of 7% is way smaller than 4% of 92%.

However i'm not touching polls or subsamples of African Am.

True! The point being though that Trump is maybe gaining like 2% from 2020 crossover support. The narrative among many is that Biden voters are shifting to Trump. The reality is that for the most part, it's 2020 Biden > 2024 undecided or third party

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/admcrlsn/status/1802370194158780873?s=46

Interesting thread on this poll.

[wbrocks67]

PA-

Democrats: 78% Biden, 2% Trump, 4% RFK, 3% West, 1% Stein, 8% undecided
Republicans: 66% Trump, 5% Biden, 14% West, 6% undecided
Independents: 25% Biden, 16% Trump, 16% RFK, 15% West, 25% undecided

2020 Biden voters: 69% Biden, 4% Trump, 7% RFK, 8% West, 1% Stein, 10% undecided
2020 Trump voters: 73% Trump, 10% Biden, 13% West, 3% RFK, 3% undecided
2020 didn’t vote: 23% Biden, 18% Trump, 16% RFK, 5% West, 2% Stein, 37% undecided

Biden fav among Indies: 36/54 (-18)
Trump fav among Indies: 19/75 (-66)

Biden fav among undecided voters: 32/49 (-17)
Trump fav among undecided voters: 12/70 (-58)

Biden fav among 2020 didn’t vote: 37/56 (-19)
Trump fav among 2020 didn’t vote: 23/68 (-45)

Definitely less of a 'black voters are voting for Trump!' and more of a consolidation issue for Biden here. His numbers though are much better than Trumps among the undecided and voters who didn't vote in 2020. However, he's only up by 5 among that group so there's work to do to move those voters over

Also I have to laugh at Trump getting 8% of the vote in the PA 'urban' tab. So much for him getting 30% of the vote in Philly lol

[wbrocks67]

It's criminal however that Suffolk comissioned this and couldn't be bothered to a) do a H2H matchup or b) do a likely voter segment

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's criminal however that Suffolk comissioned this and couldn't be bothered to a) do a H2H matchup or b) do a likely voter segment

Are either Cornel West or RFK even on the ballot in MI/PA?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

It's criminal however that Suffolk comissioned this and couldn't be bothered to a) do a H2H matchup or b) do a likely voter segment

Are either Cornel West or RFK even on the ballot in MI/PA?

Not yet for either of them. RFK would theoretically be easy given his past signature-gathering record, but no filing has happened yet. Also feels worth mentioning that the signature amount is itself subject to a lawsuit (as indicated in the nomination papers themselves), which might be something the dems use to block ballot access:

[RI]

It's criminal however that Suffolk comissioned this and couldn't be bothered to a) do a H2H matchup or b) do a likely voter segment

Are either Cornel West or RFK even on the ballot in MI/PA?

RFK is on the ballot in MI and he still has until 8/1 in PA.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It's criminal however that Suffolk comissioned this and couldn't be bothered to a) do a H2H matchup or b) do a likely voter segment

Are either Cornel West or RFK even on the ballot in MI/PA?

RFK is on the ballot in MI and he still has until 8/1 in PA.

Ah. I don’t think west is though.

[SnowLabrador]

I guess this is the best place to mention that I signed up for a text-bank session headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan on Saturday. After that, I'll let you all know how it went. The plural of "anecdote" is not "data", but I wonder how many anti-Biden leftists I'll get.

[Redban]

Cornel West isn't on the ballot in either state, and RFK's not on the ballot in Pennsylvania. This is a joke.

You're seriously thinking Kennedy won't be on the ballot in PA? The signature requirement is 5k

https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1802676222956044775

[Ljube]

Only Pennsylvania is important because this is 270 for Trump: