French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-far-right-refuses-govern-without-absolute-majority-jordan-bardella/

"French far right: We won’t govern without an absolute majority"

RN thinking along the lines I am thinking.  Either it is a RN landslide victory or let NFP-ENS run the government the next 3 years, contradictions and all while RN scopes up more support from the anti-incumbency sentiment.

Is not the best outcome for RN is for RN to be the largest party but fall short of a majority by some distance?  Then an anti-RN grand alliance government is formed which positions RN in 2027 to be the one and only anti-incumbent and anti-status quo choice.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/e28f9753-1770-4c8c-91d8-e7bb7ed44feb

"French businesses court Marine Le Pen after taking fright at left’s policies"

RN is positioning itself as the alternative to NFP for the business class.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Better Hitler than the Popular Front" was the French owning class' motto in the 30s too. Some things never change.

[Agafin]

Yeah this is exactly what I was talking about the other day.

SURVEY - LR supporters in favor of an alliance with the RN (article in french).

While the party officials' universal condemnation of Ciotti's move might have given the impression that no one supports him, polling is in fact showing that over half of the party is with him.

While the question wasn't asked, I'm willing to bet that less than 10% of republicains would vote for an LFI candidate against an RN candidate and it makes sense ideologically.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

While they are irrelevant, I do want to point out this hilarious line from a press release that minor regionalist party Unser Land (Our Land) put out on the 14th where they said "Macron is a Jacobin, Le Pen and Mélenchon even more so." https://www.facebook.com/unserland.mouvementalsacien/posts/pfbid0cddVNeXApxCErUskWeJiDbm8xsnoTrffD9XwoHyAhJ8xG7NE8EC4vKSngiLyVaTrl

[DK_Mo82]

I know this is not exact correct thread, please forgive , as I forumulate my question:  with collapse of Macron and so called Macronists, RN the right-wing including republican rump, and the left coalition banner are projected, everywhere I see, as top two, some places suggest Left coalition could win more seats than R.N..

So my question is about President election scheduled for 2027, is it likely that Melenchon runs for president one more time, if he does, we assume the le Pen runs as the R.N Candidate..  are these likely to be top two candidates, heading to runoff, in 2027?  Would Melenchon have a chance to defeat le Pen, how would Macron try to direct his voters in such scenario?

Thanks

[GoTfan]

Yeah this is exactly what I was talking about the other day.

SURVEY - LR supporters in favor of an alliance with the RN (article in french).

While the party officials' universal condemnation of Ciotti's move might have given the impression that no one supports him, polling is in fact showing that over half of the party is with him.

While the question wasn't asked, I'm willing to bet that less than 10% of republicains would vote for an LFI candidate against an RN candidate and it makes sense ideologically.

Centrists will always choose fascism first.

[lfromnj]

Lefties are picking fascism . Put Macron over your left wing dreams and centrists will vote for Macron.

[Agafin]

I know this is not exact correct thread, please forgive , as I forumulate my question:  with collapse of Macron and so called Macronists, RN the right-wing including republican rump, and the left coalition banner are projected, everywhere I see, as top two, some places suggest Left coalition could win more seats than R.N..

So my question is about President election scheduled for 2027, is it likely that Melenchon runs for president one more time, if he does, we assume the le Pen runs as the R.N Candidate..  are these likely to be top two candidates, heading to runoff, in 2027?  Would Melenchon have a chance to defeat le Pen, how would Macron try to direct his voters in such scenario?

Thanks

Le Pen is almost guaranteed to make it to the second round in 2027. Mélenchon less so. If he has any sense he'll let someone like Ruffin run instead. If he does run, then he might make it to round 2 only if the the Renaissance (Macron's party) candidate is very unpopular. In that scenario, Le Pen would crush him.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Every single piece could fall the right way for the NFP, and they still would not manage to convince more than a third of the electorate to vote for them or come close to winning power. On the French political scene, the Left as a whole sits on the fringe, in practice a more marginal actor than the RN.

The response to this is to say that it is a result of the center/center-right and the left being too right-wing/centrist and too complacent with the far-right. The ideas could not possibly be wrong and the effectiveness of vigilance is unquestionable, therefore the solution is for everyone to shift a bit more to the left and become more vigilant.

But I mean, if it was the Right winning less than 30% of the vote against a dominant radical Left, with the remains being occupied by varying stripes of the center-left; would anyone seriously suggest the reverse? It would be much more helpful to ask what exactly it is in left-wing politics that makes people hate them more than they hate the fascists.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every single piece could fall the right way for the NFP, and they still would not manage to convince more than a third of the electorate to vote for them or come close to winning power. On the French political scene, the Left as a whole sits on the fringe, in practice a more marginal actor than the RN.

The response to this is to say that it is a result of the center/center-right and the left being too right-wing/centrist and too complacent with the far-right. The ideas could not possibly be wrong and the effectiveness of vigilance is unquestionable, therefore the solution is for everyone to shift a bit more to the left and become more vigilant.

But I mean, if it was the Right winning less than 30% of the vote against a dominant radical Left, with the remains being occupied by varying stripes of the center-left; would anyone seriously suggest the reverse? It would be much more helpful to ask what exactly it is in left-wing politics that makes people hate them more than they hate the fascists.

I don't know what this is responding to but pretty much everyone here agrees that Mélenchon is a drag for the left. If you have a brilliant idea to deal with the fact that he still has a lock on a third or so of left-wing voters without which the left can't win, I'm all ears. For now though, all that can be said for the French left is that they're doing their best in a near-impossible situation. In 2017 it was an open question if the left would even survive as a viable political force, or if we were headed toward a liberal-centrist vs far-right bipolarization. The fact that we've avoided this nightmare scenario is already worth something.

[lfromnj]

Every single piece could fall the right way for the NFP, and they still would not manage to convince more than a third of the electorate to vote for them or come close to winning power. On the French political scene, the Left as a whole sits on the fringe, in practice a more marginal actor than the RN.

The response to this is to say that it is a result of the center/center-right and the left being too right-wing/centrist and too complacent with the far-right. The ideas could not possibly be wrong and the effectiveness of vigilance is unquestionable, therefore the solution is for everyone to shift a bit more to the left and become more vigilant.

But I mean, if it was the Right winning less than 30% of the vote against a dominant radical Left, with the remains being occupied by varying stripes of the center-left; would anyone seriously suggest the reverse? It would be much more helpful to ask what exactly it is in left-wing politics that makes people hate them more than they hate the fascists.

There isn’t much Le Pen /Melenchon polling but I think the shift in France really happened during the riots over the Muslim kid who was shot. Tony could tell more though. As far back as 2018 it was definitely Mélenchon seen as the true opposition .

[Hash]

List of candidates has been released: https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/

According to political journalist Laurent de Boissieu (one of the few French political journalists to have any knowledge of electoral history and an interest in data and arcane details), there are 4,011 candidates, which is the lowest in a long time (6,290 in 2022, 7,877 in 2017), for an average of just 7 per constituency.



The interior ministry gnomes have assigned the label 'Union de l'extrême droite' to RN-LR (Chiotti) candidates (about 60 of them), while pure RN candidates have the label 'RN'. It would appear that the 'LR' label has been given to LR (anti-Chiotti) candidates. All NFP candidates have the label 'Union de la gauche' assigned to them.

I don't have the numbers on me, but macronismo is not contesting about a tenth of constituencies (65 or so), which they claim are where they consider there is a need for strategic vote against 'the extremes' from the first round and they are supporting other candidates - usually LR, PS or LIOT deputies, although that doesn't imply that those incumbents asked for that support, want it or are even all that pro-macronismo. LR deputies Michèle Tabarot, Marie-Christine Dalloz, Virginie Duby-Muller, Emilie Bonnivard, Nicolas Forissier and Julien Dive have no macronista opponents, while in the Hauts-de-Seine there was a partial alliance between a LR faction (Philippe Juvin) and macronismo, though this alliance was rejected by the LR (anti-Chiotti) faction which is running LR candidates against certain macronistas including Attal (confused? good!). In Corrèze-1, they are supporting the LR incumbent against our beloved national Flanby. Macronismo is also not running candidates against LIOT deputies Bertrand Pancher, Charles de Courson, Benjamin Saint-Huile (PS dissident who also has no LR opponent in a seat in the Nord that could very easily flip to the RN), Christophe Naegelen, Martine Froger (PS dissident who is now also the 'official' PS-NFP candidate in her Ariège constituency) and Pierre Morel-A-L’Huissier. Macronismo also has no candidates against Jérôme Guedj (PS incumbent in Essonne who opposes the NFP and has a dissident LFI opponent) as well as PS deputies Dominique Potier (who was anti-Nupes in 2022) and Cécile Untermaier.

I don't know how many candidates LR is running, but LR has no candidates in several constituencies in the Nord - absent in the 15th (RN-held seat where macronismo has nominated Jean-Pierre Bataille, who is a regional VP in Xavier Bertrand's majority in the regional council), in the 5th (RN-held seat where macronismo has nominated former LR/UMP deputy Sébastien Huygues, defeated in 2022, most famous for defeating Martine Aubry in 2002), in the 7th and 14th against two philippista (Horizons) incumbents or in the 21st (open seat, once held by Jean-Louis Borloo, where macronismo is supporting former UDI senator Valérie Létard).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm gonna wait for Le Monde to publish their own list, with much more sane and comprehensible labels, and then I might make a couple maps to sketch out the lay of the land in each constituency.

[Hash]

Going through the spreadsheet of candidates, here's the number of candidates for the major blocs per ministry labels:

'Union de la gauche' (NFP): 546
RN: 499 + 63 'Union de l'extrême droite'
Ensemble: 445
Reconquête: 327
LR: 305

There are also 191 DVD, 140 DVG, 215 'divers' (others), 654 'far-left', 23 'far-right', 149 'divers centre', 114 'droite souverainiste' (mostly NDA's DLF crew), 144 ecologists.

Of course anyone who knows about French politics can tell you that the ministry's labels are frustrating but also often quite arbitrary, misleading and sometimes even inaccurate.

[Harlow]

It seems strange to me that a government ministry is responsible for placing candidates on the ideological spectrum through those labels.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

'Union de l'extrême droite'

Lmao.

[Storr]

'Union de l'extrême droite'

Lmao.

'Union of the Extreme Right' sounds like the name of an authoritarian government you'd find in a bootleg video game. Something menacing enough to indicate that it's the game's antagonising force, yet vague enough to avoid copyright infringement.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

'Union de l'extrême droite'

Lmao.

'Union of the Extreme Right' sounds like the name of an authoritarian government you'd find in a bootleg video game. Something menacing enough to indicate that it's the game's antagonising force, yet vague enough to avoid copyright infringement.

Hoi4 alternate ideology government vibes lol.

[Arson Plus]

Out of curiosity, why would Ciotti and his followers be labeled as not the legitimate LR and why were the rebels labeled as LR if Ciotti is the leader of LR? I'm confused.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It seems strange to me that a government ministry is responsible for placing candidates on the ideological spectrum through those labels.

It may be related to the origin of the terms "left-wing" and "right-wing" from their seating in the French parliament.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

'Union de l'extrême droite'

Lmao.

'Union of the Extreme Right' sounds like the name of an authoritarian government you'd find in a bootleg video game. Something menacing enough to indicate that it's the game's antagonising force, yet vague enough to avoid copyright infringement.

Critical support for the Brotherhood of Evil Mutants against the Union of the Extreme Right. jao.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Out of curiosity, why would Ciotti and his followers be labeled as not the legitimate LR and why were the rebels labeled as LR if Ciotti is the leader of LR? I'm confused.

That's a good question. It seems to be an arbitrary decision of the government which Ciotti might be able to file a lawsuit against (like the NUPES parties sued to make sure they were included under the same label back in 2022). Of course, the timing is very tight right now.

[Agafin]

"Far-right" is the better translation for "extrême droite" I think. No one actually says "extreme right" in English.

And yeah those labels are somewhat arbitrary. The RN is far right but LFI is only left (and not far left). I get it that there are parties that are to the left of LFI on economics (like NPA and LO which are actually anti-capitalist parties) but none is to their left on identity/cultural issues. And in a similar vein, Le Pen's party is to the left of LR and Renaissance on Economics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Far-right" is the better translation for "extrême droite" I think. No one actually says "extreme right" in English.

Er... what? The term is absolutely used here and generally as a way of distinguishing overt Neo Nazis from everyone else.