French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Mike88]

Jesus Christ, what a mess and what horrible choices the electorate has. Between Macron, Le Pen, Mélenchon and the corpse of LR... not to mention the other "trash" in French politics.

Hollande, you are forgiven.

[DL]

The only attractive figure in French politics right now is Glucksmann. He needs to run for President

[Estrella]

The only attractive figure in French politics right now is Glucksmann. He needs to run for President

He is and he should, but Méluche’s Jonestown cult would rather vote for Le Pen than for a pro-Western (((globalist))).

[DL]

The only attractive figure in French politics right now is Glucksmann. He needs to run for President

He is and he should, but Méluche’s Jonestown cult would rather vote for Le Pen than for a pro-Western (((globalist))).

On top of that the extreme left anti-globalists are often anti-Semitic and likely hate Glucksmann for being Jewish

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glucksmann gave his full support to the Popular Front this morning. Clearly he knows where the real threat is coming from - from the right and the far-right, as always.

[Logical]

Pretty good distribution. PS were handed most of rural SW seats where they have the most strength, LFI in the banlieus and Greens in the urban core. Only thing that might bite them back later is stuffing Brittany with LFI and PCF candidates instead of PS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pretty good distribution. PS were handed most of rural SW seats where they have the most strength, LFI in the banlieus and Greens in the urban core. Only thing that might bite them back later is stuffing Brittany with LFI and PCF candidates instead of PS.

What's the source for this map? I've seen it reported in a few places, but not in any of the main news sources, so I'm not sure how official it is. As soon as I have confirmation I'll try to crunch some numbers though.

In other news, the LR political bureau has once again voted to expel Ciotti, right before a tribunal is set to rule on his previous expulsion. So chaos is pretty much assured.

[Logical]

Pretty good distribution. PS were handed most of rural SW seats where they have the most strength, LFI in the banlieus and Greens in the urban core. Only thing that might bite them back later is stuffing Brittany with LFI and PCF candidates instead of PS.

What's the source for this map? I've seen it reported in a few places, but not in any of the main news sources, so I'm not sure how official it is. As soon as I have confirmation I'll try to crunch some numbers though.

In other news, the LR political bureau has once again voted to expel Ciotti, right before a tribunal is set to rule on his previous expulsion. So chaos is pretty much assured.

https://www.leparisien.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-decouvrez-quelle-formation-representera-le-nouveau-front-populaire-dans-votre-circonscription-14-06-2024-HIJMVTK3MFFAJIHXQA3HM7JOOQ.php

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pretty good distribution. PS were handed most of rural SW seats where they have the most strength, LFI in the banlieus and Greens in the urban core. Only thing that might bite them back later is stuffing Brittany with LFI and PCF candidates instead of PS.

What's the source for this map? I've seen it reported in a few places, but not in any of the main news sources, so I'm not sure how official it is. As soon as I have confirmation I'll try to crunch some numbers though.

In other news, the LR political bureau has once again voted to expel Ciotti, right before a tribunal is set to rule on his previous expulsion. So chaos is pretty much assured.

https://www.leparisien.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-decouvrez-quelle-formation-representera-le-nouveau-front-populaire-dans-votre-circonscription-14-06-2024-HIJMVTK3MFFAJIHXQA3HM7JOOQ.php

Yeah, I'm finding it in several places now. Still unclear what the primary source is. The Popular Front doesn't seem to have its own website yet so I guess they just sent the map over to the press.

[LabourJersey]

What exactly can Ciotti do at this point?

If the vast majority of LR is against him and has been expelled, does he lose the LR "party line" in his constituency? does he run as an independent? It is possible that he goes as far as runs with the help (direct or indrirect) or RN?

This is such a weird situation that I guess you can't predict it, but curious what theories are there.

[Agafin]

What exactly can Ciotti do at this point?

If the vast majority of LR is against him and has been expelled, does he lose the LR "party line" in his constituency? does he run as an independent? It is possible that he goes as far as runs with the help (direct or indrirect) or RN?

This is such a weird situation that I guess you can't predict it, but curious what theories are there.

There's no proof that the "vast" majority of the party is against him. So far it's just the party executives/establishment and as we learned with Trump in 2015, both of those do not always align. If he believes he still has the confidence of the base, he has no reason to leave for now. Because deep down, while most LR dislike the RN, I have yet to see a single républicain who has unambiguously stated that they'd vote LFI over RN. But the opposite has happened already.

[Flyersfan232]

What exactly can Ciotti do at this point?

If the vast majority of LR is against him and has been expelled, does he lose the LR "party line" in his constituency? does he run as an independent? It is possible that he goes as far as runs with the help (direct or indrirect) or RN?

This is such a weird situation that I guess you can't predict it, but curious what theories are there.

There's no proof that the "vast" majority of the party is against him. So far it's just the party executives/establishment and as we learned with Trump in 2015, both of those do not always align. If he believes he still has the confidence of the base, he has no reason to leave for now. Because deep down, while most LR dislike the RN, I have yet to see a single républicain who has unambiguously stated that they'd vote LFI over RN. But the opposite has happened already.

the politicans arent the base

[MaxQue]

What exactly can Ciotti do at this point?

If the vast majority of LR is against him and has been expelled, does he lose the LR "party line" in his constituency? does he run as an independent? It is possible that he goes as far as runs with the help (direct or indrirect) or RN?

This is such a weird situation that I guess you can't predict it, but curious what theories are there.

There's no proof that the "vast" majority of the party is against him. So far it's just the party executives/establishment and as we learned with Trump in 2015, both of those do not always align. If he believes he still has the confidence of the base, he has no reason to leave for now. Because deep down, while most LR dislike the RN, I have yet to see a single républicain who has unambiguously stated that they'd vote LFI over RN. But the opposite has happened already.

the politicans arent the base

For them, local mayors and so on might be the base at this point, as everybody else left to either Macron or the RN in the last years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who actually controls LR is probably going to be determined by a Paris court some time this evening. If the court find that Ciotti's expulsion (enacted with dubious legality on June 12 but re-formalized by the LR political bureau earlier today) is legal, then he's lost the LR label and he along with his acolytes will run a a RN satellite under some kind of "divers droite" label. If the court decides in Ciotti's favor... well, then the question is what he does with the rest of the party's cadres, who still hate his guts and will continue undermining him at every turn.

Even if Ciotti gets to keep the LR label, I doubt it will be worth much. As noted, LR in the past few years has increasingly become a party of notables, held together by its network of elected officials at the local level. Those people clearly near-unanimously reject Ciotti's line, and if they leave the party is basically dead. So I don't really see a win condition for him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, let's do some math. Here's a breakdown of the Popular Front constituencies based on the outcome of the 2022 elections and whether or not the Popular Front lists, taken together, came out ahead in the EU elections:


Left won in 2022 / Left ahead in 2024 (100)
58 FI
21 EELV
16 PS
5 PCF


Left won in 2022 / RN ahead in 2024 (40)
17 PS
14 FI
7 PCF
2 EELV


ENS won in 2022 / Left ahead in 2024 (129)
46 PS
44 FI
32 EELV
7 PCF


LR won in 2022 / Left ahead in 2024 (7)
5 FI
2 PS


RN/DLF won in 2022 / Left ahead in 2024 (2)
2 FI


Frankly I don't get how FI managed to get such generous terms. Not only are the more endangered left incumbents disproportionately from PS (and PCF), but somehow FI managed to also get a plurality of the best pickup opportunities (51 for FI to 48 for PS). I'm shocked Faure didn't ask for more, considering his party is already severely underrepresented in the current state of things. Oh well.

[Ethelberth]

what is difference between Part Radicale de Gauche and Les Radicaux de Gauche. They were listed differently in EP elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

what is difference between Part Radicale de Gauche and Les Radicaux de Gauche. They were listed differently in EP elections.

They had a split-of-the-atom moment at some point during Macron's first term iirc. I forget the exact reason but I think it had to do with whether to continue the alliance with PS or look to greener pastures.

[jaichind]

Frankly I don't get how FI managed to get such generous terms. Not only are the more endangered left incumbents disproportionately from PS (and PCF), but somehow FI managed to also get a plurality of the best pickup opportunities (51 for FI to 48 for PS). I'm shocked Faure didn't ask for more, considering his party is already severely underrepresented in the current state of things. Oh well.

Perhaps this has to do with the fact that LFI voters will loyally vote LFI no matter what while if PS had to run on their own then some of their vote might tactically vote PS.  So in this situation LFI has escalatory dominance.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

what is difference between Part Radicale de Gauche and Les Radicaux de Gauche. They were listed differently in EP elections.

They had a split-of-the-atom moment at some point during Macron's first term iirc. I forget the exact reason but I think it had to do with whether to continue the alliance with PS or look to greener pastures.

Obligatory.

[lfromnj]

Yeah it makes sense to give LFI the safer seats as iirc Melenchon actually was losing by 2017 Le pen margins to Le Pen.

[Logical]

Cluster 17 poll

RN 29,5%  
NFP 28,5%
Macronie 18%
LR 7%
REC 3,5%
DVG 3%
DVD 2,5%

Seat projection

RN 195-235
NFP 190-235
Macronie 70-100
LR 25-35
DVG 10-14
Others 10-16

Turnout 60% (+13)

[Antonio the Sixth]

...and the tribunal has sided with Ciotti. Welp.

I genuinely have no idea what happens now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and the tribunal has sided with Ciotti. Welp.

I genuinely have no idea what happens now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...and the tribunal has sided with Ciotti. Welp.

I genuinely have no idea what happens now.

Okay, some guesses as to what happens now.

First, Ciotti appears to have full control over party nominations, which means he can stop people from running against RN under the LR label. Doesn't mean local notables won't run under some version of the "divers droite" label, and of course a number might be tempted to make a deal with Macronismo as well, which can use all the help it can get. Now, the big question is gonna be what happens to the incumbents. 59 of the 61 LR MPs opposed Ciotti (along with all the Senators), so if he were to go after them he'd be effectively decapitating his own parliamentary caucus. So does he try to strike some kind of deal with them? Would they even be open to one? Or if the anti-Ciotti really want to play scorched earth, they could leave the party en masse and form a new parliamentary caucus, like Fillon supporters did back in 2012. Since public funding of parties is based on the number of MPs they elect, this would pretty much cripple LR. The flip side is that renouncing the party label might not do these incumbents any favors in being reelected.

So we seem to have a full-blown Mexican standoff on our hands here. Any aggressive move from either side might lead to the doom of both.

[MaxQue]

what is difference between Part Radicale de Gauche and Les Radicaux de Gauche. They were listed differently in EP elections.

They had a split-of-the-atom moment at some point during Macron's first term iirc. I forget the exact reason but I think it had to do with whether to continue the alliance with PS or look to greener pastures.

No, the Parti Radical de Gauche wanted to merge back with the Parti Radical (valoisien) to recreate the old Parti Radical that was so strong decades ago and reverse the split of the 70's (where the PRG became an ally of the left and the PRV an ally of the right) over support for Macron into a new party called Mouvement Radical. It collapsed 2 years after as the PRG was opposed to officially joining Macron's majority.

Les Radicaux de Gauche did not want to support Macron and continued to support the Left. They were pro-NUPES in 2022, while the PRG was opposed.