French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[DL]

Did you know that in 1974, President Pompidou died unexpectedly and the first round of the 1974 French presidential election took place literally three weeks later! Can you imagine a full blown presidential election campaign all happening in three weeks! Americans should take note

[DL]

Seems to me that n underreported story in France was the comeback of the PS under the leadership of Glucksmann who seems like a very attractive leader. This could be an opportunity for him to now sideline that toxic Melenchon once and for all a create a palatable and attractive left of centre option in the 2027 presidential election

[DL]

This is the first time there is a NA election without a Presidential election since there were 7 year Presidential terms before 2002.

Its not quite true - while in recent years the NA election has been in the same year as the Presidential election, it has NOT been simultaneous - typically the presidential election is in April/May and then the NA elections are in late June - and are highly influenced by who has won the presidential election. Its not like the US where people are voting for President and for most of Congress at the same time.

[DL]

Glucksmann just proposed Laurent Berger as a potential PM candidate for NUPES 2.0

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurent_Berger

(I honestly don't think Glucksmann is that bothered over Presidency or PM spots, in terms of personal ambition, but let's see

And what do people think of Laurent Berger? Is he a good choice?

[DL]

The idea that Macron would resign is ludicrous. Even if the RN won a majority…history has shown that these cohabitation periods end in years not for the party of the President but for the party of the PM. Look at how in 1988 Mitterrand was reelected thanks to two years of Chirac being PM and becoming very unpopular

[DL]

This poll shows the Left doing quite well against the RN...with Macron's party getting squeezed

 Le Rassemblement national est crédité de 31% des intentions de vote contre 28% pour l'alliance de gauche et 18% pour le bloc Renaissance et ses alliés tandis que les LR tomberaient à 6,5% et Reconquête à 4%.

https://www.latribune.fr/economie/france/legislatives-2024/sondage-exclusif-legislatives-le-rn-a-31-l-alliance-de-gauche-a-28-999721.html

[DL]

The only attractive figure in French politics right now is Glucksmann. He needs to run for President

[DL]

The only attractive figure in French politics right now is Glucksmann. He needs to run for President

He is and he should, but Méluche’s Jonestown cult would rather vote for Le Pen than for a pro-Western (((globalist))).

On top of that the extreme left anti-globalists are often anti-Semitic and likely hate Glucksmann for being Jewish

[DL]

How is it possible that even a single solitary Muslim would vote for LePen? What percentage of German Jews voted for the Nazi party in 1932?

[DL]

Turnout : 64%
Under these numbers there would be triangulaires in more than half of the constituencies.

I have to assume that the more 3 way second round races are the better it is for RN

Yeah and unlike previous years, I don't really see candidates dropping put to endorse the stronger anti-RN candidate as they did in 2022 (and before).

Wouldn't it depend a bit on who the top two candidates were? If the top two are from RN and a reasonable PS type - maybe the third place Ensemble candidate drops out - could be different if its a crackpot from LFI in the top 2.

One thing I don't understand is why they allow these "triangulaires" at all? Why not treat the legislative elections like the Presidential elections and just drop everyone except the top 2 candidates?

[DL]

A very plausible result in the assembly elections is that RN emerges as the largest party but falls short of a majority but RN plus whatever remnants there are of LR are just over the majority - what happens then?

[DL]

How many people both to vote for third place candidates in triangulaires in the second round. For example, let's say in a certain district, the RN and NFP candidates each have 40% of the vote and a 3rd place Macronist just barely clears the hurdle with about 15% of the vote - do the people who voted for that 3rd place Macronist even bother to vote at all? Seems like its so obviously a waste of time.

[DL]

Rafael Glucksmann tweets:

C’est désormais clair et net : Jean-Luc Mélenchon ne sera pas Premier Ministre vu que tous les autres partis s’y opposent. On peut maintenant se concentrer sur le véritable enjeu qui est d’empêcher que Jordan Bardella le soit, lui? Car cette hypothèse est très réaliste, elle.

In other words there is a popular front within the popular front against the pro-Putin crackpot Melenchon

[DL]

It seems Macron's strategy is

a) Push up the rhetoric so turnout is high which means as many as possible ENS candidates make it into the second round
b) Go all out in RN-LFI+-ENS second-round races but pull out in some races where non-LFI+NFP are in the fray in the second round in hopes of splitting the NFP between LFI+ and non-NFI+ voting blocs.  In other words, try to achieve between the two rounds what Marcon wanted when he called the election: An alliance between ENS and the non-LFI+ Center-Left.

Does anyone think there will be ANY races where the second round run-off is between an LFI candidate and a non-LFI member of NFP? I suspect that the RN will make it to the second round in virtually every contest

[DL]

I guess the question then is whether there are many seats where the NFP candidate is from FI (as opposed to PS or EELV) AND where EM's party is also in contention.

[DL]

Yet, per the same poll, the NFP does better among people who actually earn less (the things you posted are self-described categories).

That's even stranger then: low-income NFP voters self-identify as upper class?

I wonder if something is "lost in translation" here - the terms lower class and upper class have certain connotations in English that do not translate well to French and in fact the terminology is very different. When someone identifies as "upper class" in the UK is evokes old ladies who speak RP and eat cucumber sandwiches at high tea and have toy poodles - or private school boys who went to Eton.

[DL]

How people self-identify in terms of class often bears little or no resemblance to their actual class markers (i.e. income and education and profession) - When this question is asked in Canada literally just 1% or 2% of people will identify as "upper class' or "wealthy" - even though many people have very high incomes. In fact about 80% of people think they are in the middle 20% income quintile!

Another thing to keep in mind is that because the NFP vote skews so heavily urban as opposed to rural and since incomes in general tend to be higher in big cities (though the cost of living is also higher) you will get this mirage that people who vote NFP have higher incomes...but they likely have lower incomes compared to the people who live in their cities.