kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,062
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« on: June 16, 2024, 09:58:45 AM » |
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To give more context, the 2020 recalled was:
76-9 in MI and 76-8 in PA.
So this has Trump gaining 6 points in vote share in MI and 3 points in PA, so not a huge swell in support. The bigger issue for Biden is that they found that the 3rd party vote is sticky and not eager to go back to Biden. In a ranked-choice choice vote, according to information they gave about second choice, it seems like the 3rd parties would be going to Biden/Trump 75-25 or 80-20.
I don't really know what people were expecting with this poll. When you get a ton of crosstabs showing Biden struggling with Black voters, an oversample conducted in the same manner will yield similar results.
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