MI-10 Thread: Dems vs James

[wnwnwn]

There are various primary dem candidates, but I think that Marlinga is favored to again compete with James (R).
The district is based on Macomb County, altorught excluding some northern exburbs. It also includes the sightly D leaning Rochester Hills. The district's area was won by Trump on a 1% margin in 2020.

I think that dems in general should try to win back or at least reduce R gains in Macomb. Maybe the UAW and Slokin can help here a little.

Discuss.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Marlinga makes it Tilt R (much closer to Tilt D than Lean R) and could absolutely unseat James if Democrats seriously compete here this time.

[Spectator]

I don't think James will have much an issue this year with Trump likely to win the district again. 2022 was close because Democrats dominated upballot.

I think James is one of the first Republicans to lose in 2026 though if Trump is in the White House.

[Progressive Pessimist]

James has incumbency and presidential turnout this time, making him favored.

Andy Levin really should have ran here in 2022. He probably would have won.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't think James will have much an issue this year with Trump likely to win the district again. 2022 was close because Democrats dominated upballot.

I think James is one of the first Republicans to lose in 2026 though if Trump is in the White House.

Part of what I don't understand is why Dems didn't spend more against James here in 2022? As soon as it became clear Whitmer was pretty heavily favored in the Governor's race, it was pretty clear that she would carry this district at the top of the ticket. Additionally, James lost this district in his 2020 Senate bid despite outrunning Trump statewide. Bailing on this race in 2022 was a mistake for Dems imo.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

James has incumbency and presidential turnout this time, making him favored.

Andy Levin really should have ran here in 2022. He probably would have won.

AIPAC went hard against Levin in 2022 (over 600,000). It probably would neutralize his incumbency.

[Spectator]

I don't think James will have much an issue this year with Trump likely to win the district again. 2022 was close because Democrats dominated upballot.

I think James is one of the first Republicans to lose in 2026 though if Trump is in the White House.

Part of what I don't understand is why Dems didn't spend more against James here in 2022? As soon as it became clear Whitmer was pretty heavily favored in the Governor's race, it was pretty clear that she would carry this district at the top of the ticket. Additionally, James lost this district in his 2020 Senate bid despite outrunning Trump statewide. Bailing on this race in 2022 was a mistake for Dems imo.

Maybe my memory is incorrect, but wasn’t there a polling mirage where Dixon was perceived to be closing the gap? Obviously those polls ended up total bullsh**t and Whitmer won by even more than she did in 2018. Had Dems known it was going to be a better year than even 2018, I imagine they would’ve invested.

[cg41386]

I don't think James will have much an issue this year with Trump likely to win the district again. 2022 was close because Democrats dominated upballot.

I think James is one of the first Republicans to lose in 2026 though if Trump is in the White House.

Part of what I don't understand is why Dems didn't spend more against James here in 2022? As soon as it became clear Whitmer was pretty heavily favored in the Governor's race, it was pretty clear that she would carry this district at the top of the ticket. Additionally, James lost this district in his 2020 Senate bid despite outrunning Trump statewide. Bailing on this race in 2022 was a mistake for Dems imo.

Maybe my memory is incorrect, but wasn’t there a polling mirage where Dixon was perceived to be closing the gap? Obviously those polls ended up total bullsh**t and Whitmer won by even more than she did in 2018. Had Dems known it was going to be a better year than even 2018, I imagine they would’ve invested.

I think there were some close-ish polls at some point.