Kansas flipping blue

[Samof94]

Could you see Kansas be the next Indiana 2008?? I mean, a state that briefly flips but goes back to its "norm" after a large blowout election. The GOP equivalent would likely be Minnesota flipping red one election(think a 2016-type election, but the GOP has someone less vile than Trump).

[Pericles]

After Utah, Kansas is the most well-educated safe Republican state. So there clearly is more upside for the Democrats than Republicans there. It would be hard to see it flipping in a normal election, but in a comfortable win I can definitely see it as an upset.

[Samof94]

After Utah, Kansas is the most well-educated safe Republican state. So there clearly is more upside for the Democrats than Republicans there. It would be hard to see it flipping in a normal election, but in a comfortable win I can definitely see it as an upset.

Exactly, like in 2008. 

[Skill and Chance]

It's entirely possible down the line.  FWIW a close election based on pure educational polarization would look like this:



Interesting that the South is already about as realigned as it "should" be based on education with all of the Dem gain opportunities in the Plains/Mountain West.  On the flip side, the Rust Belt is already about as realigned as it "should" be based on education and Republican hopes to flip anywhere in the NE would be dashed.  All of the action is west of the Mississippi here. 

[wnwnwn]

2008 with with a farm crisis tweak

[DS0816]

Could you see Kansas be the next Indiana 2008?? I mean, a state that briefly flips but goes back to its "norm" after a large blowout election. The GOP equivalent would likely be Minnesota flipping red one election(think a 2016-type election, but the GOP has someone less vile than Trump).

I want to repeat a fact that may be worth keeping in mind: Since 1992, the average number of states carried in United States presidential elections are 29. Prevailing Republicans—George W. Bush (30 and 31) and Donald Trump (30)—have averaged 30 carried states. Prevailing Democrats—Bill Clinton (32 and 31), Barack Obama (28 and 26), and Joe Biden (25)—have averaged 28 carried states.

The Democrats, when they win, are pretty much good for minimums of +4 in their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote and 25 carried states. But, they need a higher states count—and U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin—to reach, flip, and carry some states that numerous people have in mind.

Suppose the following: The 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump included winning over to that party Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida on a regular basis. Realignment. That a Democrat will not carry them for a few decades. That it takes at least two winning Democrats, whose maps did not include any of them, before they may be willing again.

When it comes to where states rank, for best performance in percentage-points margins, and with consistency, they will end up trending more Republican as they trend away from the Democrats. So, this would call for replacements. And this is why asking about Kansas is understandable.

After the 25 states, in the 2020 Democratic column for Joe Biden, perhaps the next group can be:

26. North Carolina
27. Texas
28. Alaska
29. South Carolina
30–32. Uncertain (but mentioned in alphabetical order): Kansas, Montana, Utah, and non-state Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District.

This would send south, for the Democrats, those which realigned Republican in 2016 to rank, for the Democrats, no better than No. 33.

[Spectator]

I do think Democrats are better positioned in Kansas over the long-term comparedbto places like Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and South Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next Democratoc president came within single digits of winning Kansas. Jerry Moran only got 60% in 2022 despite all the advantages he had with incumbency and the favorable political environment.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Eastern Kansas has a lot in common with NoVa but is several decades behind politically. It wouldn’t surprise me if similar to Virginia, that portion of the state creates a monopoly that makes it Dem-leaning over the next few decades.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Kansas flips Nebraska wouldn’t be far behind either.

[Spectator]

If Kansas flips Nebraska wouldn’t be far behind either.

Maybe. Johnson, Sedgwick, Shawnee, Riley, Wyandotte, and Douglas counties in Kansas currently consist of about 60% of the electorate in Kansas, and it’s only growing. Dems need to focus on flipping Sedgwick in non-gubernatorial races since Sedgwick seems to be the new bellwether for the state. Lancaster and Douglas in Nebraska, while becoming larger slices of the pie, are a little under 50% right now, and have a ways to go. Sarpy County becoming basically a Johnson County 2.0 would go a long way.

[President Johnson]

2008 with with a farm crisis tweak

In a sane world, that would be the inevitable outcome of the 2024 election. With Biden winning by at least ten in the popular vote.

[kwabbit]

Kansas is just too rural and White to flip in this alignment outside of a D+15 year, but it should continue to get closer. Educational polarization is pushing it left but it's only slightly above-average in that regard. It's not like Colorado or Massachusetts.

[wnwnwn]

Eastern Kansas has a lot in common with NoVa but is several decades behind politically. It wouldn’t surprise me if similar to Virginia, that portion of the state creates a monopoly that makes it Dem-leaning over the next few decades.

Virginia has also a dem base in Richmont, Hampton Roads and the rural black belt.
Kansas also has Wichita and maybe some latino areas. If they flip Sedgwick County, maybe then Kansas would become a swing state, but it would be a NC like situation.

[Schiff for Senate]

More like Colorado, its next door neighbor, than Indiana, to be honest.

A reliably red state that flips in a Democratic landslide (1992 for Colorado), returns to the GOP for a couple of elections, and then flips Democratic again, this time for good.

Indiana meanwhile came full circle, with Trump in 2016 winning by nearly as much as Bush in 2004 and completely erasing Obama's gains. If Kansas flips Democratic, I don't expect it to return to 15-20 point margins for the GOP ever again.