Is Texas' Future Blue?

[Samof94]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

What about MS?

Unless blacks gain an absolute majority in population, MS will not budge. It is perhaps the most racially polarized state in the country. Mississippi whites are about as Republican as blacks are Democrat. And Mississippi is not a state experiencing big population growth, so I don't see much change happening. OTOH, states like SC and TN are growing and you have college educated whites moving in, which could shift said states in the future.

Their Governor is complaining that their best and brightest are leaving. I mean,  Elvis Presley, Leann Rimes and Hayley Williams all got famous while living in other states.

Don’t forget Britney Spears.

I forgot. I am more into Paramore.
On a more notable note, Mississippi lacks an Atlanta or a Houston analog. 

[Spectator]

TX will vote for a D nominee again sometime this century, provided Don Giovanni doesn't manage to fully implement Project 2025 if he wins in November.

Also TX can swing D and trend R in a hypothetical future election if it swings D by less than the country as a whole.

A century is forever in Politics. Even CA voted for R less than 40 years ago.

We are a LOT closer to the day coming in Texas than many people realize. Trump’s 5.5% win is a huge sign that the next Democratic President can and probably should win it. 2028 is my guess if Trump is the outgoing President. It is not uncommon to see huge swings when the parties flip the White House. The states Obama flipped all swing over 10-25 points blue. Same with Trump, it was all for the most part huge swings, especially in the Midwest. 5% deficit is nothing, and I think people will be shocked, much like they were when Michigan flipped in 2026, or Arizona and Georgia in 2020.

[Samof94]

TX will vote for a D nominee again sometime this century, provided Don Giovanni doesn't manage to fully implement Project 2025 if he wins in November.

Also TX can swing D and trend R in a hypothetical future election if it swings D by less than the country as a whole.

A century is forever in Politics. Even CA voted for R less than 40 years ago.

We are a LOT closer to the day coming in Texas than many people realize. Trump’s 5.5% win is a huge sign that the next Democratic President can and probably should win it. 2028 is my guess if Trump is the outgoing President. It is not uncommon to see huge swings when the parties flip the White House. The states Obama flipped all swing over 10-25 points blue. Same with Trump, it was all for the most part huge swings, especially in the Midwest. 5% deficit is nothing, and I think people will be shocked, much like they were when Michigan flipped in 2016, or Arizona and Georgia in 2020.

Typo. You mean 2016??

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

What about MS?

Unless blacks gain an absolute majority in population, MS will not budge. It is perhaps the most racially polarized state in the country. Mississippi whites are about as Republican as blacks are Democrat. And Mississippi is not a state experiencing big population growth, so I don't see much change happening. OTOH, states like SC and TN are growing and you have college educated whites moving in, which could shift said states in the future.

Their Governor is complaining that their best and brightest are leaving. I mean,  Elvis Presley, Leann Rimes and Hayley Williams all got famous while living in other states.

Don’t forget Britney Spears.

NV IS LEAN D