If Canada were in the United States and had congressional districts...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think this can be done now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What would 2020 allotments for each province look like?

[Antonio the Sixth]

For what it's worth, I'm in the very early stages of developing a DRA-like app for Canada (only this one would work on most browsers) which would go up on election-atlas.ca. No idea when it will be ready.

That would help me immensely. Thanks so much!

(PS: will it have past census data, or just the most recent one?)

Still extremely interested in that!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

My take on how districts would vote.

I think the GOP does relatively well in English-speaking Western Canada, but would crash and burn in Eastern Canada, Quebec, and the Toronto Metro.

I feel mainly unsure of the 2nd Edmonton and Calgary districts, the Fraser Valley District, and some of the Eastern Ontario districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My take on how districts would vote.

I think the GOP does relatively well in English-speaking Western Canada, but would crash and burn in Eastern Canada, Quebec, and the Toronto Metro.

I feel mainly unsure of the 2nd Edmonton and Calgary districts, the Fraser Valley District, and some of the Eastern Ontario districts.

I think this makes a good amount of sense. I think my favorite part of this is Ontario. The 905-416/rest-of-Ontario divide would play in the D's favor in the topline but make things hard for them in some areas (especially in IRL ancestral Liberal areas in SW Ontario). The Windsor seat probably would have been Dem pre-2010 and post-GOP since.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

British Columbia with 7 districts.
The increasing population concentration in Metro Vancouver is evident with the growing of the the most rural CD.
In the most recent Canadian federal election, the NDP likely won 1; the CPC won 2, 3, and 4; and the LPC won 5, 6, and 7.
2 is, I would assume, the one with the most marginal results, but eyeballing could be lying to me here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

6 seat Alberta. This really showcases the sophistication that is made possible with a DRA-type app. Before I was reduced to drawing a line on a census division map without knowing how much people were exactly within a district.
It goes without saying that all districts voted Conservative in the most recent Canadian federal election. Except for the Edmonton one. That would would actually have gone NDP I think.
We also see how concentrated the population of Alberta is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Decided to ditch putting Saskatoon and Regina in the same seat as I judged it, in retrospect, to be clunky.
Obviously both CDs voted Conservative in the most recent Canadian federal elections. 2 is very probably less safe than 1, due to Saskatoon being more to the left, and it including First Nations lands in the north as opposed to safely Con grain areas in the south.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Manitoba with 2 seats.
Not much change. One Winnipeg seat, one non-Winnipeg seat.
Winnipeg seat voted Liberal in 2021, non-Winnipeg voted Conservative.

[Adam Griffin]

For what it's worth, I'm in the very early stages of developing a DRA-like app for Canada (only this one would work on most browsers) which would go up on election-atlas.ca. No idea when it will be ready.

That would help me immensely. Thanks so much!

(PS: will it have past census data, or just the most recent one?)

Still extremely interested in that!

Looks like it's up and running!

[Antonio the Sixth]

For what it's worth, I'm in the very early stages of developing a DRA-like app for Canada (only this one would work on most browsers) which would go up on election-atlas.ca. No idea when it will be ready.

That would help me immensely. Thanks so much!

(PS: will it have past census data, or just the most recent one?)

Still extremely interested in that!

Looks like it's up and running!

This is it, right? https://election-atlas.ca/ridingbuilder/

I'd really like to ask if they can include 2011 census data as well as 2021. It would be great to have both. I'd be happy to contribute on Patreon for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For what it's worth, I'm in the very early stages of developing a DRA-like app for Canada (only this one would work on most browsers) which would go up on election-atlas.ca. No idea when it will be ready.

That would help me immensely. Thanks so much!

(PS: will it have past census data, or just the most recent one?)

Still extremely interested in that!

Looks like it's up and running!

This is it, right? https://election-atlas.ca/ridingbuilder/

I'd really like to ask if they can include 2011 census data as well as 2021. It would be great to have both. I'd be happy to contribute on Patreon for it.

Oui.
I have quite enjoyed it so far, if these posts upthread are any indication. I'm sure y'all would too.

[Skill and Chance]

My take on how districts would vote.

I think the GOP does relatively well in English-speaking Western Canada, but would crash and burn in Eastern Canada, Quebec, and the Toronto Metro.

I feel mainly unsure of the 2nd Edmonton and Calgary districts, the Fraser Valley District, and some of the Eastern Ontario districts.

I think this makes a good amount of sense. I think my favorite part of this is Ontario. The 905-416/rest-of-Ontario divide would play in the D's favor in the topline but make things hard for them in some areas (especially in IRL ancestral Liberal areas in SW Ontario). The Windsor seat probably would have been Dem pre-2010 and post-GOP since.

I think this is more of an "if annexed prior to WWII" map?  Though, given how well the GOP now does in Louisiana and ME-02, wouldn't they start winning Quebec and some of the rural eastern areas sometime between 2000 and 2016? 

If Canada joined the Union today, I would expect near unanimous Dem voting outside of the Prairies at the outset.   

[Sol]

Of course these districts might not be the actual ones if Canada was in the U.S.--it's easy to imagine Alberta having a Republican gerrymander which would limit Democrats to one seat in Edmonton at the minimum. Or Democrats in Ontario drawing a Windsor-London-Kitchener-Guelph snake a la Downstate Illinois.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

My take on how districts would vote.

I think the GOP does relatively well in English-speaking Western Canada, but would crash and burn in Eastern Canada, Quebec, and the Toronto Metro.

I feel mainly unsure of the 2nd Edmonton and Calgary districts, the Fraser Valley District, and some of the Eastern Ontario districts.

I think this makes a good amount of sense. I think my favorite part of this is Ontario. The 905-416/rest-of-Ontario divide would play in the D's favor in the topline but make things hard for them in some areas (especially in IRL ancestral Liberal areas in SW Ontario). The Windsor seat probably would have been Dem pre-2010 and post-GOP since.

I think this is more of an "if annexed prior to WWII" map?  Though, given how well the GOP now does in Louisiana and ME-02, wouldn't they start winning Quebec and some of the rural eastern areas sometime between 2000 and 2016?  

If Canada joined the Union today, I would expect near unanimous Dem voting outside of the Prairies at the outset.  

No, it's for today. Quebec is much more culturally distinct than Louisiana or ME-02. I don't see any reason why deep-Con areas of rural Ontario or BC would vote Dem, even if they're not on the Prairies, assuming there are no major initial conflicts or outside factors.

[Sol]

Really unclear to me why everyone is assuming that the Atlantic provinces would vote Democratic.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

My take on how districts would vote.

I think the GOP does relatively well in English-speaking Western Canada, but would crash and burn in Eastern Canada, Quebec, and the Toronto Metro.

I feel mainly unsure of the 2nd Edmonton and Calgary districts, the Fraser Valley District, and some of the Eastern Ontario districts.

I think this makes a good amount of sense. I think my favorite part of this is Ontario. The 905-416/rest-of-Ontario divide would play in the D's favor in the topline but make things hard for them in some areas (especially in IRL ancestral Liberal areas in SW Ontario). The Windsor seat probably would have been Dem pre-2010 and post-GOP since.

I think this is more of an "if annexed prior to WWII" map?  Though, given how well the GOP now does in Louisiana and ME-02, wouldn't they start winning Quebec and some of the rural eastern areas sometime between 2000 and 2016?  

If Canada joined the Union today, I would expect near unanimous Dem voting outside of the Prairies at the outset.  

No, it's for today. Quebec is much more culturally distinct than Louisiana or ME-02. I don't see any reason why deep-Con areas of rural Ontario or BC would vote Dem, even if they're not on the Prairies, assuming there are no major initial conflicts or outside factors.

If it was a longer-term integration map, I'd at least consider giving some of the more rural Quebec seats + Atlantic province seats to the GOP, especially considering the low levels of college education in these places. New Brunswick has a college education % lower than West Virginia* and is equally white -- I could easily see it being comparable to a conservative ME-02 if annexed in the 1940s, but I think that the cultural distinctness + left-leaningness of the Atlantic provinces would mean it was blue if integrated today.

*Fun fact -- Canada would be the 11th least-educated state in the union if annexed today, and (ignoring the territories), only Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario would be outside of the bottom 10.

https://www.emploisnb.ca/sites/default/files/pdf/2018-01-30-education_en.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_educational_attainment#List

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Of course these districts might not be the actual ones if Canada was in the U.S.--it's easy to imagine Alberta having a Republican gerrymander which would limit Democrats to one seat in Edmonton at the minimum. Or Democrats in Ontario drawing a Windsor-London-Kitchener-Guelph snake a la Downstate Illinois.

The newer map I posted above re: Alberta could be a GOPmander. If Canadian election results are any indication, Calgary's southern portion should lean Republican enough to drown out whatever parts of its northern half are paired with it, and the more Democratic northern half is largely paired with blood-red rural areas, yielding 2 Republican seats.
This isn't the partisan result that I sought out, but it's the likely end result.
Cracking  Edmonton would likely be too perilous, but the Edmonton district I have already fits the bill for what a Dem district might look like.
Only real change might be cracking the rest of Edmonton, unpacking the big rural northern CD.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ontario with 18 seats. Went with 18 instead of 19 as I felt that if there was still 435 seats, then the quota would be higher than IRL with Canada as part of the calculation.
1, 2, 3, 14, 15, and 17 voted Conservative in the most recent federal election, while 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16, and 18 voted Liberal. 5, 17, and 18 were probably competitive, perhaps very competitive, for the New Democrats. The CDs in the outer 905 would likely not be entirely safe.
Ontario with 18 seats is tricky, but ends up somewhat nicely. Not sure if 19 seats is better or worse.

[GregTheGreat657]

Ontario with 18 seats. Went with 18 instead of 19 as I felt that if there was still 435 seats, then the quota would be higher than IRL with Canada as part of the calculation.
1, 2, 3, 14, 15, and 17 voted Conservative in the most recent federal election, while 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16, and 18 voted Liberal. 5, 17, and 18 were probably competitive, perhaps very competitive, for the New Democrats. The CDs in the outer 905 would likely not be entirely safe.
Ontario with 18 seats is tricky, but ends up somewhat nicely. Not sure if 19 seats is better or worse.

How can you see how they voted?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ontario with 18 seats. Went with 18 instead of 19 as I felt that if there was still 435 seats, then the quota would be higher than IRL with Canada as part of the calculation.
1, 2, 3, 14, 15, and 17 voted Conservative in the most recent federal election, while 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 16, and 18 voted Liberal. 5, 17, and 18 were probably competitive, perhaps very competitive, for the New Democrats. The CDs in the outer 905 would likely not be entirely safe.
Ontario with 18 seats is tricky, but ends up somewhat nicely. Not sure if 19 seats is better or worse.

How can you see how they voted?

These are educated guesses.
I looked at 2021 results and then work out what party came out on top.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ontario with one more seat. This is where things would stand if the House increased in size.
A lot of the seats in and around the 905 shrink a lot.
1, 2, 3, 9, 16, and 18 voted Conservative in the most recent federal election; 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, and 19 voted Liberal; and 4, 11, and 19 are probably the best hopes for an NDP seat. I increasingly have doubts 5 voted Liberal, looking at the monster Conservative margins in its more rural areas (perhaps capable of outvoting the rest of the CD), but this iteration of the Kitchener CD has a bit less of said turf. It is probable that in the 18 seat scheme it voted Conservative, and in the 19 seat scheme it went for the Grits.

[King of Kensington]

NDP would be lucky to win anything outside of BC with US-sized districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Quebec with 11 seats.
I tried to avoid crossing the St. Lawrence when possible and prioritized connecting islands to areas they had road contiguity with. One district had to cross the St. Lawrence and I opted to have it be in the metropolitan area of Ville de Quebec.
1, 7, and 10 voted for Bloc Quebecois; 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 11 voted for the Liberals; and 8 and 9 voted Conservative. 6 was ultra-marginal between the Liberals and BQ. 8 and 9 were three-way marginals between LIB, BQ, and CON.
In the 2011 federal election the NDP would have swept all of these seats.

[OBD]

ON (19), QU (12), BC (, AB (7), MB (4), SA (3), NS (3), NB (includes PEI) (3), NF (3)

Here's a fun little project (electoral votes shown). Used a tool (https://apportionmentcalculator.com/) to estimate a 435-seat US appointment with Canada included. Average seat size swells to 846,720. Canada steal 44 seats from us, with losses coming across the board - larger states, particularly Texas and California, are hit the hardest, though smaller states like Kansas and Nebraska also take a hit.