United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Talleyrand]

But he's not standing?

[Talleyrand]

Why was Sunak in Caithness?

[Talleyrand]

Starting to look superficially like those massive Labour-SNP swings in 2015.

[Talleyrand]

MRPs being very much the in thing, there's another one from More in Common:

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1803442656955244861

Would a Labour win (if it came true) be their first ever in Montgomeryshire?

[Talleyrand]

I can't find any zoomable map or way to tell the constituency results for the Telegraph/Savanta poll, has anyone found that?

Such a waste of an MRP if you can't even properly look at the constituency results.

How much is it even worth looking in-depth at a model which has Labour winning South Holland and the Deepings?

[Talleyrand]

And now Labour have suspended a candidate, Kevin Craig in Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, apparently for betting that he was going to lose.

LD gain.

They were on 11% in 2019, so that seems highly implausible.

[Talleyrand]

What region do our UK experts think the Tories will hold up best? The East of England? Maybe the South West if they benefit from three-cornered contests?

[Talleyrand]

Survation "final call" MRP

Lab 484
Con 64
Lib Dem 61
SNP 10
Reform 7
Plaid 3
Green 3
(expected seat counts, not counts of seats where they have the parties ahead; they only have one seat with Reform in the lead)

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-99-certain-to-win-more-seats-than-in-1997/

Someone is going to have major egg on their face Friday.

[Talleyrand]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1808282454643339520

[Talleyrand]

I should know this already, but I know the Speaker who is Labour doesn't count in the election total. So, Labour won 202 seats in 2019 and not 203, similarly when Bercow, the Conservative won in 2015 and 2017.

Does the Speaker run unopposed in their riding?

Not unopposed but by convention the major parties don't put up candidates against the Speaker.

[Talleyrand]

Is BBC election coverage available outside the UK tonight? Or is Sky our best best?

[Talleyrand]

Is BBC election coverage available outside the UK tonight? Or is Sky our best best?

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt#player - here's a stream that's working now, but knowing the BBC they'll probably pull it just before 10 or something.

In 2019 they had a official non-geoblocked stream, but it went up when programming started like 5-10 minutes before 10.

Thank you!!! Please do share if it does.