United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[The Mikado]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

I've rarely seen Electoral Calculus get so broken by a poll.

Put this in and:

Lab 519
LD(!) 57 (calling BS on this)
Con 32
SNP 19
PC 3
Green 2
Northern Ireland 18
Reform 0

Electoral Calculus just isn't designed for results this wild.

[The Mikado]

If you fancy another laugh, the Political Compass website has been updated to 2024. Apparently Reform are to the left of the Conservatives, George Galloway is more libertarian than Labour, and the SNP led by John Swinney and Kate Forbes is interchangeable on economics with the Greens.

www.politicalcompass.org/uk2024

A few years ago I wrote a long rant about how they don't even actually put the candidates/parties through their stupid test to determine their position on the chart, they just do it 100% on vibes.

So I tried myself by putting in Trump's and Biden's positions into the site and comparing it to their official 2020 US compass.

My takes first:

Trump:



Biden:





Their take:



They just make stuff up and don't even use their own test on these things.

[The Mikado]

How many candidates do the parties still need?

[The Mikado]

Bizarre seeing hitpieces against a Conservative Party PM in publications like The Daily Mail:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13504037/Disbelief-military-figures-Rishi-Sunak-returned-Normandy-D-Day-events-finished-General-Election-interview-recording-ITV-News.html

And even The Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/06/farage-hits-out-sunak-leaving-d-day-commemorations-early/

Does Sunak have ANY friendly press left?

[The Mikado]

How does this even work mechanically? Parliament has been dissolved. How can Charles make someone the new PM if Parliament is out of session?

[The Mikado]

I do think if they made Cameron leader they could get back A LOT of the moderate Tories who are voting Labour. Enough to win? Surely not even close. But def keep it closer to bring the Tories below a Blairslide

Last minute substitutions of a party leader are just an incredibly stupid thing that makes your party look indecisive and disorganized.

Same people who'd think this is a good idea are probably the same people who think subbing Biden out at the last minute would somehow be a good idea. Once you have your candidate you have that candidate and veering away from that makes your party look amateurish and not ready for prime time.

[The Mikado]

The Conservatives have very much suffered from a belief that during a campaign the polls will always narrow in their favour... it has basically been baked in that they would be able to get the lead down by pure virtue of being the Conservative Party.

This really is a party whose fundamental, core identity is rooted in a sense of entitlement. It would be beautiful to see it come back to bite them in the ass.

Yup. Has been for over 300 years. It's in their DNA.

I suppose the most optimistic Tory take at this point would be that they're going to be cut down so thoroughly in number that in the 2029 or whatever election the vast majority of people standing as Conservative candidates will have no ties to the 2010-2024 Conservative governments. The usual cope of a party that got totally wiped out.

[The Mikado]

Ironically, I think the only last-minute replacement who might stand a chance of saving any of the furniture (not very much of it, but maybe a couple of small chairs and a footstool) would be... Boris Johnson.

So...bet people have forgotten why he was chased out to begin with? I guess that means "bet Brits have as short a memory as Americans do."

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1800231637265068343

Respect.

Say what you will about whether or not this strategy will actually work, he definitely seems like he's actually enjoying the election more than anyone else. It feels like he took the calling of a general election as an excuse to hit every vacation destination in Great Britain and good for him.

[The Mikado]

Pressed to give an example of something that he grew up without, Sunak said: “There’ll be all sorts of things that I would’ve wanted as a kid that I couldn’t have. Famously, Sky TV, so that was something that we never had growing up actually.”

Did he turn the question into blatant pandering to Sky?

[The Mikado]

18 days to go! Increasingly looking forward to election night, more so than in past elections I've watched (15', the Referendum, 17' and 19'). Feels like it's going to be one of those historic nights - for better or worse - one shouldn't miss.

The Brexit Referendum was one of those and was a fun viewing experience. (Probably less fun for the people who actually had to deal with the years and years of wrangling that resulted)

[The Mikado]

MRPs being very much the in thing, there's another one from More in Common:

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1803442656955244861

The funny thing is if you asked the Tories whether they'd lock this in or gamble on playing out the rest of the election I think they'd take it in a heartbeat. This is a pretty good night for them at this point and that's deeply telling.

[The Mikado]

I like the rhetoric about this being a 'game-changing government' that leaves the country 'transformed'. I've heard it before though and it didn't work out though.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1805759150321696916

In my opinion i don't think hes going to last a full term with how wishy washy he is and how vague his plans are. It still baffles me he was the best Labour could come with.

Maybe you should actually listen to British people on this one rather than American podcast hosts. I find that's a great way to develop a better instinct about a country.

Anyway, Starmer's biggest problem might just be the nature of really really really large majorities to become fractious and filled with infighting because they don't have the pressure from outside competition to stick together. Definitely a problem you'd rather have than not but I fully expect 5 years of Labour infighting in the press.