Remember that in 2020, Democrats greatly reduced in-person campaigning due to the pandemic while Republicans mostly maintained their usual levels of in-person campaigning, and that was an important factor in Republicans overperforming/Democrats underperforming polls (for example, 538's final NPV polling average as of Election Day was D+8.4, while the actual NPV result was D+4.5). If this logic were applied to a hypothetically imprisoned Trump, it should be obvious which side would benefit more.
Overall, especially after 2022, this is a factor in this election that doesn't get discussed enough. The Democrats this year seem to be better organized and that may make the difference in turnout and with the margins in the major battlegrounds.
