AZ-SEN (Noble Predictive): Gallego +10 general / Lake +25 primary

[wbrocks67]

Gallego (D) 46%
Lake (R) 36%
Undecided 19%

Gallego fav: 47/27 (+20)
Lake fav: 39/45 (-6)

Among Independents: Gallego +16, 42-26
Independents fav: Gallego 41/26 (+15),  Lake 35/44 (-9)

GOP primary:
Lake 46%
Lamb 21%
Undecided 25%

https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lake-still-leading-gop-senate-primary-but-losing-ground?utm_campaign=AZPOP&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_L-YFB8WMybVvDlL3fZjcT2oFKuuT7lX2Q0XhGccfNvHWNr4J0GKFRs9uAZEDYyYjLWjQ8bjYbI4BbjtkhHzBS_jathw&_hsmi=308357681&utm_content=308357681&utm_source=hs_email

[SnowLabrador]

Good poll for Gallego. Did they give any presidential numbers?

[wbrocks67]

Good poll for Gallego. Did they give any presidential numbers?

This is the one that had Trump +3 (H2H) and Trump +7 (all candidates)

[SnowLabrador]

Good poll for Gallego. Did they give any presidential numbers?

This is the one that had Trump +3 (H2H) and Trump +7 (all candidates)

Wow, that's infuriating. Are that many people really going to split their tickets? And yet, Arizona's hardly the only swing state with this pattern.

[xavier110]

Kari Lake is polling like Joe Biden, in the sense that they both under-poll their party’s generic vote and have distinct weaknesses with core parts of their party’s base. She is going to consolidate a lot of the outstanding vote, and there’s no way Gallego wins by 10.

[wbrocks67]

Kari Lake is polling like Joe Biden, in the sense that they both under-poll their party’s generic vote and have distinct weaknesses with core parts of their party’s base. She is going to consolidate a lot of the outstanding vote, and there’s no way Gallego wins by 10.

Yep, Gallego being in the mid-to-high 40s is a good start, but Lake is only this low bc shes not consolidating Rs, which she likely will (though not as many as Gallego will with Ds)