Nevada Early Vote - Primary 2024

[wbrocks67]

Statewide: D+7.1 — 131K have voted
Democrats 46.0% (60,306)
Republicans 38.9% (51,021)
Other 15.1% (19,784)

Dems at 10.0% turnout, while Reps at 8.9% turnout

Clark: D+14.8
Democrats 50.0% (41,023)
Republicans 35.2% (28,869)
Other 14.8% (12,181)

Dems at 8.8% turnout, Reps at 8.1% turnout

Washoe: D+10.1
Democrats 47.2% (13,292)
Republicans 37.1% (10,453)
Other 15.6% (4,393)

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-primary-2024

[wbrocks67]

Caveats apply, but given how meh the early vote looked for Dems in 2022, it's pretty striking to see how much better the EV looks for them for the primary.

Add to the fact that Democrats have no competitive primaries and Republicans do, these are some awful #s for GOP.

Again - caveats here - but this does not look like Nevada Trump +9.

[SnowLabrador]

You can't equate primaries to general elections.

[wbrocks67]

You can't equate primaries to general elections.

You sort of can for Nevada when everyone is sent a ballot. They aren't the same thing of course, but given the rock bottom interest from the GOP and Democrats participating more - especially by mail - makes it very hard to believe Trump is leading in Nevada by double digits as some pols suggest.

[SnowLabrador]

You can't equate primaries to general elections.

You sort of can for Nevada when everyone is sent a ballot. They aren't the same thing of course, but given the rock bottom interest from the GOP and Democrats participating more - especially by mail - makes it very hard to believe Trump is leading in Nevada by double digits as some pols suggest.

Biden's so toxic he's going to lose Nevada regardless, most likely.

[DrScholl]

No one remembers that polling badly failed in Nevada in 2010. Polling is irrelevant this cycle as it is but it should really be disregarded in Nevada because the pollsters can't ever reach the right people.

With contested primaries Republicans should be in the lead so it speaks volumes that they aren't. Primaries can be compared to general elections.

[wbrocks67]

Statewide: D+5.7
Dems 77,093 (45.4%)
Reps 67,482 (39.7%)
Total 169,947

Clark: D+13.8
Dems 52,548 (49.5%)
Reps 37,893 (35.7%)
Total 106,077

Washoe: D+8.1
Dems 16,843 (46.5%)
Reps 13,909 (38.4%)
Total 36,216

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/13879/638531736748000000

[Spectator]

Washoe’s blue trend is the only thing saving Nevada Dems. Saved them in 2022 and we’ll see if it does this year.

[wbrocks67]

Statewide: D+5.0
Dems 85,296 (45.1%)
Reps 75,761 (40.1%)
Total 188,929

Clark: D+13.7%
Dems 58,100 (49.5%)
Reps 42,038 (35.8%)
Total 117,419

Washoe: D+6.9%
Dems 18,579 (46.0%)
Reps 15,801 (39.1%)
Total 40,380

[Unelectable Bystander]

Back of the napkin math on turnout numbers.

Carson City
D 20% R 17% Other 6%

Clark
D 12% R 12% Other 3%

Washoe
D 19% R 15% Other 5%

Random rural counties
D 23% R 16% Other 5%

Independent turnout in Clark is dreadful, and D turnout in rural counties is insane. That’s why D’s are outvoting the registration numbers even with Clark having low turnout.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I don't think there is a lot of predictive power in these numbers for November. Turnout is horrible but that is to be expected since there is really no major competitive races, especially on the Democratic side. I'm maybe a little surprised by the size of the Dems turnout advantage so far but I would expect Republicans to crush on election day and have a higher turnout when all is done.  What is interesting to me is how much Nevada is turning into a predominantly VBM state. I would expect 60-70% of the total vote will be cast by mail. Give it a few years and NV will be like CA with 90% of the vote cast by mail.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly I don't think there is a lot of predictive power in these numbers for November. Turnout is horrible but that is to be expected since there is really no major competitive races, especially on the Democratic side. I'm maybe a little surprised by the size of the Dems turnout advantage so far but I would expect Republicans to crush on election day and have a higher turnout when all is done.  What is interesting to me is how much Nevada is turning into a predominantly VBM state. I would expect 60-70% of the total vote will be cast by mail. Give it a few years and NV will be like CA with 90% of the vote cast by mail.

Which is explicitly why I don't expect there to be some crazy Trump +9 result in NV. AFAIK, aren't all voters sent a ballot in NV?

[wbrocks67]

Seems likely Dems will top their 2022 total, Republicans-questionable

Reps
2022 senate turnout: 202k
2024 so far: 97k

Dems
2022 senate turnout: 146k
2024 so far: 104k

[Senator Incitatus]

This is useless without a historical early vote to compare.

[wbrocks67]

This is useless without a historical early vote to compare.

I'm gonna try and dig up the EV from 2022 to see what it looks like. Obviously will be less but just interesting to see what the splits were like

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Probably a good reminder when this inevitably gets tracked in October that the GOP actually had more votes in their primary than the Dems did despite the Early vote.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

This is useless without a historical early vote to compare.

I'm gonna try and dig up the EV from 2022 to see what it looks like. Obviously will be less but just interesting to see what the splits were like

From Twitter:

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1800748087100744073

[wbrocks67]

Probably a good reminder when this inevitably gets tracked in October that the GOP actually had more votes in their primary than the Dems did despite the Early vote.

Not very surprising for this one, as Republicans also did much better (as expected) with election day vote.

Fall will be a bit more complicated because they'll be a much bigger Indy vote

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Probably a good reminder when this inevitably gets tracked in October that the GOP actually had more votes in their primary than the Dems did despite the Early vote.

They also had a competitive Senate primary to vote in, wheras Dems had nothing. Also, R's had a 50,000 vote lead in primary turnout in 2022, which dropped down to a 12,000 vote lead this year. And we know how 2022 turned out.

[Spectator]

Probably a good reminder when this inevitably gets tracked in October that the GOP actually had more votes in their primary than the Dems did despite the Early vote.

They also had a competitive Senate primary to vote in, wheras Dems had nothing. Also, R's had a 50,000 vote lead in primary turnout in 2022, which dropped down to a 12,000 vote lead this year. And we know how 2022 turned out.

The 2022 GOP primaries were much more contested than this year’s. Competitive gubernatorial and senate primaries that year. Not an apples to apples comparison. Dem turnout was up though when there were no primaries of note either year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably a good reminder when this inevitably gets tracked in October that the GOP actually had more votes in their primary than the Dems did despite the Early vote.

They also had a competitive Senate primary to vote in, wheras Dems had nothing. Also, R's had a 50,000 vote lead in primary turnout in 2022, which dropped down to a 12,000 vote lead this year. And we know how 2022 turned out.

The 2022 GOP primaries were much more contested than this year’s. Competitive gubernatorial and senate primaries that year. Not an apples to apples comparison. Dem turnout was up though when there were no primaries of note either year.

Laxalt and Lombardo were seen as shoo-ins for their nominations. Neither race was exactly seen as competitive.

[wbrocks67]

Probably a good reminder when this inevitably gets tracked in October that the GOP actually had more votes in their primary than the Dems did despite the Early vote.

They also had a competitive Senate primary to vote in, wheras Dems had nothing. Also, R's had a 50,000 vote lead in primary turnout in 2022, which dropped down to a 12,000 vote lead this year. And we know how 2022 turned out.

The 2022 GOP primaries were much more contested than this year’s. Competitive gubernatorial and senate primaries that year. Not an apples to apples comparison. Dem turnout was up though when there were no primaries of note either year.

Laxalt and Lombardo were seen as shoo-ins for their nominations. Neither race was exactly seen as competitive.

This isn't really true; Brown actually did better than Laxalt. Laxalt got 55%, hardly a 'shoe-in'