United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Yet another proof of the incompetence of the left of the party. They should have had their bogus complain against Reeves ready in case it happened.

It is widely believed that the complaint against LRM is not from somebody on the Labour right. Which of course means it might be personal, rather than primarily factionally motivated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yet another proof of the incompetence of the left of the party. They should have had their bogus complain against Reeves ready in case it happened.

It is widely believed that the complaint against LRM is not from somebody on the Labour right. Which of course means it might be personal, rather than primarily factionally motivated.

Or that, if it is political, it might be in quite a different way. Crossposting this from elsewhere:

The precise phrasing of his statement is not very suggestive of it either. It's an understandable assumption to leap to at first, especially given some of the divisions in Brighton over the past decade, but currently it doesn't look like it's that.

[afleitch]

https://x.com/dylanwwfc/status/1795934440826270104

[Zinneke]

https://x.com/dylanwwfc/status/1795934440826270104

So Mr Darcy's mate is a guy who thinks the UN is anti-Semitic.

[JimJamUK]

It’s fair to say at least a couple of them are hyper factional/a bit thick and won’t have much to contribute in government.

I can't possibly imagine who you might be thinking of here, no sirree

Though if They Who Must Not Be Named *does* have to be given a seat, there are worse options.

He has a new rival in the soon to be MP for Makerfield who in his role as a think tank director said we should deport human traffickers to Scotland 😋

[Torrain]

He has a new rival in the soon to be MP for Makerfield who in his role as a think tank director said we should deport human traffickers to Scotland 😋

You have no idea how many times I’m going to hear that repeated over the next five years 😒

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1796219732934164717
And when he says *former* Tory MP, Pike means when Parliament was dissolved this morning.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1796219732934164717
And when he says *former* Tory MP, Pikes means when Parliament was dissolved this morning.

A 2019er and not exactly the most prominent of them. Still, it's not a great headline for the Tories after a day or two of Labour troubles getting the bulk of media attention. He's in a category of people who have been parliamentary candidates in both GB and NI - he was the Tory candidate in Antrim East in 2017.

[YL]

https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1796219732934164717
And when he says *former* Tory MP, Pikes means when Parliament was dissolved this morning.

From his letter I get the impression that he was expected to stand as the Conservative candidate.

[Torrain]

From his letter I get the impression that he was expected to stand as the Conservative candidate.

Yeah - sounds like that was the case until yesterday. Hopefully they’ll be able to find some bright young thing looking for some electoral experience to replace him, rather than conscripting a weary old councillor.

Have to move quick though - all of 72 hours to get them lined up, along with over 100 others…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have to move quick though - all of 72 hours to get them lined up, along with over 100 others…

Those of us who have followed many General Elections will be aware that controversies about candidates typically come in two distinct waves. The first is about the process itself, and is invariably dominated by news of disputes, deselections and alleged stitch-ups from Labour. The second is about lunatics who have somehow managed to slip through the net: if it ever gets going in a big way (i.e. beyond 'candidate in Hopeless Seat West said X'), then the Conservatives typically dominate this phase.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

[JimJamUK]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

Although it’s very much well connected union officials, many of whom have never done a day on the shop floor, rather than ordinary workers.

[afleitch]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

Although it’s very much well connected union officials, many of whom have never done a day on the shop floor, rather than ordinary workers.

Still often quite involved in unions though, which is effectively a full time job and not through choice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

Although it’s very much well connected union officials, many of whom have never done a day on the shop floor, rather than ordinary workers.

Still often quite involved in unions though, which is effectively a full time job and not through choice.

Yeah, Michels' iron law of oligarchy remains an unfortunate reality, but if a party is to have an oligarchy it could do worse than to draw it from the ranks of organizations whose bread and butter is still defending workers' interests.

[Torrain]

Two more polls. Changes small, but YouGov’s topline remains startling, so thought worth including.

BMG:

• LAB: 43% (+2)
• CON: 27% (+2)
• RFM: 11% (-3)
• LDM: 9% (=)
• GRN: 6% (=)

YouGov:

• LAB: 46% (-1)
• CON: 21% (+1)
• RFM: 15% (+3)
• LDM: 8% (-1)
• GRN: 6% (-1)
• SNP: 2% (-1)

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

[JimJamUK]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

De facto an endorsement of Alliance in 3/4 constituencies who will gain very few votes off Sinn Fein but risk being seem as the anti-unionist party in areas that are still majority unionist, albeit moderate enough that the DUP can alienate enough voters to lose them.

[WD]

Two more polls. Changes small, but YouGov’s topline remains startling, so thought worth including.

BMG:

• LAB: 43% (+2)
• CON: 27% (+2)
• RFM: 11% (-3)
• LDM: 9% (=)
• GRN: 6% (=)

YouGov:

• LAB: 46% (-1)
• CON: 21% (+1)
• RFM: 15% (+3)
• LDM: 8% (-1)
• GRN: 6% (-1)
• SNP: 2% (-1)

Reform’s % is all over the place in these polls. Either getting squeezed or still holding steady in the teens. We’ll see which one is correct, I suppose.

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqee94582d5o

Sinn Féin not running in four NI constituencies. It seems like the nationalist and unionists are both expanding their pacts from last time.

The only one where SF is at all relevant is Belfast South but that one is actually significant. If SF ran there would be at least a chance for the DUP to come up through the middle again as they did in 2017 (especially with the expanded seat as I think the areas of Down it expanded into are solidly unionist).

It is interesting that the Alliance despite its historic reputation as a unionist party for people who don't want to be called unionists is mainly and increasingly forming alliances with and attracting tactical voters from the nationalist parties.

[warandwar]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

Although it’s very much well connected union officials, many of whom have never done a day on the shop floor, rather than ordinary workers.

Still often quite involved in unions though, which is effectively a full time job and not through choice.

Yeah, Michels' iron law of oligarchy remains an unfortunate reality, but if a party is to have an oligarchy it could do worse than to draw it from the ranks of organizations whose bread and butter is still defending workers' interests.

Michels law of oligarchy is not made of Iron!!!

[Punxsutawney Phil]

FT out with a good adjustable prediction model

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1795704746969641157

Striking how the Tory seat total collapses so quickly:
24%: 134
23%: 120
22%: 96
21%: 65
20%: 29
19%: 11
18%: 3

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Goodness me, but a lot of Trade Union officials are getting selected at the last moment. Who would have thought!

I have my issues with Labour, but it's nice to see they still take their name somewhat seriously in terms of their political leadership selection.

It's one of the ways in which the famous 'organic link' shows itself. Trade Unions are heavily represented on various internals bodies and panels including, critically in this instance, the NEC. And while there are the usual factional and subfactional and etc. divisions on such bodies, different elements will tend to push their own interests.

[Epaminondas]

Striking how the Tory seat total collapses so quickly:
24%: 134
23%: 120
22%: 96
21%: 65
20%: 29
19%: 11
18%: 3

The predictions break down when unreasonable boundaries are crossed. See what happens to the Greens if they reach 20% and above.