United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*sigh*

[YL]

And John Redwood (the Tory equivalent to Corbyn in some ways) has announced he's standing down in his Wokingham seat. There won't be many MPs who were first elected before the 1990s left in the next Parliament.

I think this is the current list. Status as standing or otherwise subject to change.

Margaret Beckett (Lab, Derby South) (Oct 1974/1983) retiring
Peter Bottomley (Con, Worthing West) (1975 by) standing
Barry Sheerman (Lab, Huddersfield) (1979) retiring
Harriet Harman (Lab, Camberwell & Peckham) (1982) retiring
John Spellar (Lab, Warley) (1982 by/1992) standing in Smethwickretiring
Edward Leigh (Con, Gainsborough) (1983) standing
Nick Brown (Ind elected as Lab, Newcastle East) (1983) retiring
Jeremy Corbyn (Ind elected as Lab, Islington North) (1983) standing
Roger Gale (Con, North Thanet) (1983) standing in Herne Bay & Sandwich
Christopher Chope (Con, Christchurch) (1983/1997) standing
Greg Knight (Con, East Yorkshire) (1983/2001) retiring
Bill Cash (Con, Stone) (1984 by) retiring
George Howarth (Lab, Knowsley) (1986 by) retiring
John Redwood (Con, Wokingham) (1987) retiring
David Davis (Con, Haltemprice & Howden) (1987/2008 by) standing in Goole & Pocklington
Diane Abbott (Ind elected as Lab, Hackney North & Stoke Newington) (1987) situation unclear
Andrew Mitchell (Con, Sutton Coldfield) (1987/2001) standing
George Galloway (Workers Party, Rochdale) (1987/2012 by/2024 by) standing

Of the Tories who are standing again, Bottomley's seat has become a Labour target but the others are fairly safe barring an extreme landslide (and Chope probably even if there is an extreme landslide).

[CumbrianLefty]

A very broad history of election campaigns in the UK (which we have a limited dataset!) shows that there have only been what 2 elections since 1945 when an unpopular government in poor form has been be able to run an inspiring and winning campaign; and in both those there was a Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem vote to squeeze & a labour leadership not trusted...

Of course, the only election in which a party has actually been able to overturn a comparable polling deficit to the one the Tories now face was 2017 when Labour did it, but they had the advantage of being an opposition facing an incumbent government who were running a completely cack-handed campaign.

And even then, they didn't quite manage to overturn it to the extent of actually winning. Though had the campaign gone on another week, who knows?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DachshundColin/status/1793973478758195310

https://twitter.com/uklabour/status/1794042603299565945?s=46

[Oryxslayer]

You can find census data by ward mapped here: https://boundaryassistant.org/census/index.html?v=2.0

In terms of religion, most wards in the constituency are about 10% Muslim, rising to 20% in Finsbury Park. So it's not a big factor.

For those asking about demographics, this spreadsheet (prepared by "bjornhattan" of Vote UK) has a lot of 2021 Census stuff for the new boundaries in England and Wales. (There wasn't a 2021 Census in Scotland.)

Islington North is 12.4% Muslim, 87th highest in England and Wales. It is only 1.3% Arab; the most Arab seat is Queen's Park & Maida Vale, at just over 8%.

What's notable about this list is not Islington, but the collection of constituencies in the north and midlands with large small-c conservative Muslim populations - even after accounting for differences between registration and voting population - that saw large Gaza backlashes at the locals. Almost all have MPs from the Muslim community, and many have Labour majorities that would be very hard to overturn even with every Muslim resident voting against Labour - which we didn't see in the locals.

At least right now people seem to recognize these hurdles. Outside of the mainly White Galloway sycophants who will get very little, there are almost no prominent Indies or third party candidates currently standing in those wards. The only one so far is the ex-mayoral candidate Yakoob in Ladywood, but given that he's up against Shabana Mahmood who already stands for much of his platform, that still looks like a reach at best.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, there's also one of the fellows involved in the school protests a few years back* who is running at the atrociously named Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley. He has a degree of profile at the Sparkbrook end of the constituency.

_{*Protests against sex education classes mentioning homosexuality.}

[Chickpeas]

And John Redwood (the Tory equivalent to Corbyn in some ways) has announced he's standing down in his Wokingham seat. There won't be many MPs who were first elected before the 1990s left in the next Parliament.

I think this is the current list. Status as standing or otherwise subject to change.

Margaret Beckett (Lab, Derby South) (Oct 1974/1983) retiring
Peter Bottomley (Con, Worthing West) (1975 by) standing
Barry Sheerman (Lab, Huddersfield) (1979) retiring
Harriet Harman (Lab, Camberwell & Peckham) (1982) retiring
John Spellar (Lab, Warley) (1982 by/1992) standing in Smethwick
Edward Leigh (Con, Gainsborough) (1983) standing
Nick Brown (Ind elected as Lab, Newcastle East) (1983) retiring
Jeremy Corbyn (Ind elected as Lab, Islington North) (1983) standing
Roger Gale (Con, North Thanet) (1983) standing in Herne Bay & Sandwich
Christopher Chope (Con, Christchurch) (1983/1997) standing
Greg Knight (Con, East Yorkshire) (1983/2001) retiring
Bill Cash (Con, Stone) (1984 by) retiring
George Howarth (Lab, Knowsley) (1986 by) retiring
John Redwood (Con, Wokingham) (1987) retiring
David Davis (Con, Haltemprice & Howden) (1987/2008 by) standing in Goole & Pocklington
Diane Abbott (Ind elected as Lab, Hackney North & Stoke Newington) (1987) situation unclear
Andrew Mitchell (Con, Sutton Coldfield) (1987/2001) standing
George Galloway (Workers Party, Rochdale) (1987/2012 by/2024 by) standing

Of the Tories who are standing again, Bottomley's seat has become a Labour target but the others are fairly safe barring an extreme landslide (and Chope probably even if there is an extreme landslide).

So if Labour take Peter Bottomley's seat then Edward Leigh is next in line to be Father of the House. Surprised Bottomley isn't standing down with his seat looking so shaky especially considering he's nearly 80.

[Torrain]

Per Politico, Labour is trying to work out a deal with Diane Abbott to give her the whip back in return for her retirement. Thus retaining some goodwill, and preventing her campaigning for Jeremy Corbyn.

“Sources close to Abbott” say she just wants to retire as a Labour MP. But she’s spent all day making a mix of vague and overt attacks on the leadership via Twitter, so we’ll see…

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1794065605269569977
If Gove has given up, this is going to be a bloodbath.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh.

[Blair]

A genuine 'oh christ'; he is the type of person they really need in opposition, especially if they are on 150 seats. He is, for his many faults, an experienced and skilled operator and one of the few people who has stayed in the arena throughout the years; the tories have him to thank for the fact that the building safety crisis is less of an electoral issue than it could have been!

He of course would have known his seat was a top Lib Dem Target; like with Raaaaab I wonder if him not running actually helps as there can sometimes be a negative incumbency bonus when the figure is a high profile & well known figure; it's easy to get even Labour members to vote Liberal if they know they are getting rid of Gove, or Raaaaaab

[Oryxslayer]

A genuine 'oh christ'; he is the type of person they really need in opposition, especially if they are on 150 seats. He is, for his many faults, an experienced and skilled operator and one of the few people who has stayed in the arena throughout the years; the tories have him to thank for the fact that the building safety crisis is less of an electoral issue than it could have been!

He of course would have known his seat was a top Lib Dem Target; like with Raaaaab I wonder if him not running actually helps as there can sometimes be a negative incumbency bonus when the figure is a high profile & well known figure; it's easy to get even Labour members to vote Liberal if they know they are getting rid of Gove, or Raaaaaab

I mean they are still going to have people left from the administration(s), they just aren't the ones that immediately scream long-term viability, each for their own reasons. Atkins, Badenoch, Barclay, Braverman, Cleverly, Coutinho, Dowden, Harper, Keegan, Tugendhat, and others should survive barring the complete collapse scenario.

[Storr]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

[Oryxslayer]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

[TheTide]

A genuine 'oh christ'; he is the type of person they really need in opposition, especially if they are on 150 seats. He is, for his many faults, an experienced and skilled operator and one of the few people who has stayed in the arena throughout the years; the tories have him to thank for the fact that the building safety crisis is less of an electoral issue than it could have been!

He of course would have known his seat was a top Lib Dem Target; like with Raaaaab I wonder if him not running actually helps as there can sometimes be a negative incumbency bonus when the figure is a high profile & well known figure; it's easy to get even Labour members to vote Liberal if they know they are getting rid of Gove, or Raaaaaab

A number that's put around a lot as a 'worst case scenario' based on the 1997 experience. Not impossible it could be considerably lower than that.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

Given she was the minister behind the inane "lets try and oust sunak right now for six months more pay" idea, not unsurprising.

[Logical]

Westminster coke dealers hardest hit.

[Flyersfan232]

remember when rishi was popular

[Blair]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

Given she was the minister behind the inane "lets try and oust sunak right now for six months more pay" idea, not unsurprising.

An hilarous sub plot was her efforts for years to get back into ministerial office; she was ofc the person who offered the amendment which sought to save Owen Paterson which some of us take as the moment that the Conservatives begun crashing down

[WD]

It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

Given she was the minister behind the inane "lets try and oust sunak right now for six months more pay" idea, not unsurprising.

An hilarous sub plot was her efforts for years to get back into ministerial office; she was ofc the person who offered the amendment which sought to save Owen Paterson which some of us take as the moment that the Conservatives begun crashing down

Actually just occurred to me - November 2021 was the last time they lead in any opinion polling.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

A genuine 'oh christ'; he is the type of person they really need in opposition, especially if they are on 150 seats. He is, for his many faults, an experienced and skilled operator and one of the few people who has stayed in the arena throughout the years; the tories have him to thank for the fact that the building safety crisis is less of an electoral issue than it could have been!

He of course would have known his seat was a top Lib Dem Target; like with Raaaaab I wonder if him not running actually helps as there can sometimes be a negative incumbency bonus when the figure is a high profile & well known figure; it's easy to get even Labour members to vote Liberal if they know they are getting rid of Gove, or Raaaaaab

I mean they are still going to have people left from the administration(s), they just aren't the ones that immediately scream long-term viability, each for their own reasons. Atkins, Badenoch, Barclay, Braverman, Cleverly, Coutinho, Dowden, Harper, Keegan, Tugendhat, and others should survive barring the complete collapse scenario.

I think the experience problem is summed up in that of those ten only one even served as a junior minister pre-Brexit referendum. It’s reasonable to expect that a majority of the eventual Tory shadow cabinet held no government positions before Coronavirus!

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1793975180143775920

Those numbers. Can't breach 10% amongst under 40's (they got 24% amongst that age group in 1997)

It's extinction level.

[Alcibiades]

Definitely. It still sounds like he has a lot of popularity in his electorate and he'll no doubt be able to get lots of volunteers. The big question is who Labour pick as the replacement and whether the transient nature of the seat works against him.

If I had to call I think he'd probably be the favourite but I could easily see him winning in a blowout or losing quite comfortably.

The main thing making me think that Corbyn starts as the underdog is the very poor track record of even popular local MPs running for re-election as independents (or effectively as such if they had a party label which was just a vehicle for their campaign) after falling out with/being deselected/expelled by the party they were originally elected for (as was alluded to by the mention of Frank Field). In fact, the only such MPs I can think of in the post-war era who were actually re-elected were Eddie Milne in Blyth Valley and Dick Taverne in Lincoln (and he'd won a by-election the year before), both in February 1974 (if I'm missing any, please do let me know!).

[Steve from Lambeth]

Craig Mackinlay (Conservative, Thanet South, about to become Thanet East) won't be seeking re-election.

Just came across this on YouTube.
Evidently Labour does seem to know very well what it's doing.

I would binge-watch this series. Although surely the title would be more fitting for a series about the period between the 1967 Greek Election getting cancelled on the eve of a sure G. Papandreou victory and the 1981 Greek Election delivering a rightly-deserved A. Papandreou victory.

[JimJamUK]

I see YouGov continue to treat social grade as the same thing as class. By coincidence, I saw a poll earlier today which compared top issues by social grade and how deprived the area the voter lives in. Suffice to say, people who are C2DE social grade seem markedly more right wing and socially conservative than people who live in more deprived areas.