United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Flyersfan232]

The Tories have to have been through the worst parliament for any government (and the nation too unfortunately) in modern times. Even they're waiting to be put out of their misery.

this get more embarrassing when yo realize they have a 80 seat majority

[Flyersfan232]

I think it's pretty safe to say Labour will wind up with a possibly historic majority unless polls tighten significantly once the writ is dropped.

best case for the tories is reserve 2019 at this point

[Flyersfan232]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

canada too

[Flyersfan232]

I wonder how long they maintain the delusion of the '20' part. Perhaps it quietly transforms into 'list of seats lost at by-elections in this Parliament', plus Leicester East (sigh).

Levido apparently told Tory HQ just this week that "it is going to be a hung parliament at least".

tory hq right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-YDV6vC2qo

[Flyersfan232]

remember when rishi was popular

[Flyersfan232]

https://youtu.be/TGmTSomnfAM?si=O1RMKlrZ7z6JFVuh

[Flyersfan232]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

irony is we
Might be comparing the next Canadian election to this one

[Flyersfan232]

Exactly — parties stand down all the time in Northern Ireland — unlike in Great Britain, there’s no strong cultural norm that the major ones contest every seat. This is certainly not a case of Alliance and SF sitting down and ‘carving up’ the map between themselves.

In fact, Alliance are still running in both of the seats which Sinn Fein hold marginally over unionists: Belfast North (Alliance polled 10% there last time) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where they got 5%). Some pact.

aren’t alliance defacto unionist (( based on a chat with a Irish nationalist friend in ni who said he sooner vote for the uup then the alliance

Although I suspect Alliance standing benefits SF in both of those seats.

In any case, SF standing down in Belfast South is to the benefit of the SDLP and it's as much against the Alliance as it's against the DUP.

EDIT: Also worth noting that in 2022, SF transfers in North Down predominantly went SDLP and more went Green than Alliance; in Lagan Valley they favoured SDLP over Alliance about 75-25 and in Belfast East (where the SDLP were already eliminated) around half the SF vote didn't transfer and the remainder went Green before it went Alliance. It doesn't particularly hurt Alliance, but I don't think Naomi Long is going to be piling up the votes in Short Strand.

[Flyersfan232]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

[Flyersfan232]

Stewart is a hypocrite because he is the kind of lover of multinational pro-globalization forums that encourage this kind of thing, but how the  hell did the Tories screw immigration up so badly when it's a pretty clear concern for their core electorate?

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1798075418714743008

they didnt screw migration they never wanted to lower it they just lied to their voters

[Flyersfan232]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

I mean at soem point reform will win seats if the tories keep sknking
There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

Unfortunately for them, the electoral system is FPTP rather than PR. Many millions could vote for them and their seat total could be derisory. The Lib Dems and their preceding equivalents know this.

[Flyersfan232]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

we will probably find out soon.

they have a electoral pact with the sdp and tuv

[Flyersfan232]

Damn Reform is really surging in the polls. I guess bringing back Farage worked out, and with each day we inch closer to recreating the 1993 Canadian election...

It looks like Reform's latest surge is coming at the expense of both Labour and Tories in roughly equal measure, although their previous gains came from Tories. Reform's nominally strongest seats are all Labour because of the Boris-Farage pact in 2019, so we can't really use universal swing. But is there data on where exactly their surge is coming from? Is it more a case of traditional Tory voters deserting them for Reform, or is there also an element of red wall populism contributing to this?

Reform is getting votes only from Conservative Leave voters.

Here is an example from Yougov:

January 2020 Leave vote:

CON 76
LAB 13
REF 4
LD 2
GRN 1

Now:

REF 36  +32
CON 31 -45
LAB 21  +8
LD 7 +5
GRN 3 +2

Jan.2020 Remain vote:

LAB 43
CON 26
LD 16
GRN 8
REF 0

Now:

LAB 52 +9
LD 19 +3
CON 11 -15
GRN 10 +2
REF 3 +3

Both a majority of Conservative Remainers and Leavers left them:  Con Leavers mostly Reform, Con Remainers mostly Labour.

This also gives you an idea in which seats Reform and the LD might win

how are the remain voters voting reform

[Flyersfan232]

Has anyone got a list of former MPs who are trying for a comebaxk this election?

For Labour- Gareth Snell, Nic Dakin, James Firth, John Grogan, Melanie Onn, Jo Platt & Anna Turley- all standing in their old seats.

Mary Creagh, Douglas Alexander, Heidi Alexander, Emma Reynolds- all running in new seats.

any running with reform?

[Flyersfan232]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.

if the current canada polls hold true what would that be compare too?

[Flyersfan232]

An update at the halfway mark

Sunak adds Crawley, Horsham, Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. (His manifesto launch was in South Northants but I won't add that)

Starmer adds Hendon, Nuneaton, Redcar, Crewe and Nantwich, his manifesto launch was in Manchester. Part of me thinks I could've included Rayner's battle bus visits since she's doing more of the seat work, but it only reaches the same conclusion and the seats are in the same range.

Davey adds Runnymede and Weybridge, Torbay, Glastonbury and Somerton, Stratford on Avon, Tunbridge Wells.

Don't read too much into this as always, as the two seats were always targets, but both Starmer and Davey extended their ranges - Nuneaton and Stratford on Avon respectively are the seats furthest down the target list out of those they have visited.

should include reform

[Flyersfan232]

y are ukip/ reform big in essex?

[Flyersfan232]

There's also some chatter that the 'nowcaster' and 'forecaster' polls that should be converging... aren't.

Some forecasting measures made assumptions about a Tory swingback that isn't happening with different voter movements now visible in polling.

shy don’t work with the shy tories voters aren’t voting for the tories shy reform shy lib dems voters perhaps?

[Flyersfan232]

Sunak was away for the various international summits, but since returning he added: Beverley and Holderness, Grantham and Bourne, South Cambridgeshire, North Devon, Torridge and Tavistock.

Starmer added: Halesowen, Bassetlaw, Calder Valley, Southampton Itchen, Bristol Central, Basingstoke, Reading West and Mid Berkshire, plus a prior visit to Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes which I could not confirm previously.

Davey added: Esher and Walton, Dorking and Horley, South Devon, Yeovil, Eastleigh, Carshalton and Wallington.

Grantham and Bourne is the one that stands out, certainly in a symbolic sense. 

why is farage not included?

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

Also this poll was taken last year when Starmer was still leading in the polls by 20 points

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1692582192646434953

Corbyn was only leading the Tories by One point and that is despite being out of the spotlight since December 2019.

this is pre october 7th btw