United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[brucejoel99]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

Labour's 2024 Annual Conference is currently scheduled for Liverpool from Sun. 22 Sept. - Wed. 25 Sept., as is the 2024 Tory Conference for Birmingham from Sun. 29 Sept. - Wed. 2 Oct. Idk if that's just on-paper tho 🤷

[brucejoel99]

October 10th now being briefed as a possible GE date.

If this is seriously planned, then there will need to be some guidance regarding the party conferences sooner rather than later (as they would need to be cancelled if it is indeed going to be held then)

If it's really October 10th, then kudos to MI6 for somehow winning the day on their warnings last year about a simultaneous campaign happening the last month of the U.S. presidential.

[brucejoel99]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

From this, it sounds as if he's about to resign. Not saying it will happen, but there's no doubt a lot of unhappy voices within the party who might have had a word with him or at least with those within his inner circle.

https://x.com/kiranstacey/status/1794122073373081653

There's already been the talk about letters and the Gove announcement can't have helped matters. Could it be that Gove has taken down (intentionally or otherwise) another Prime Minister?

[brucejoel99]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

Seems like you are getting your wish:

The Tory GE campaign next year is gonna be some of the most desperate and embarrassing stuff of all time.

https://twitter.com/MartinConcagh/status/1794127357365596235

[brucejoel99]

Under UK rules, can Sunak remain PM until 4 July but the Tories presenting another PM candidate for the election?

Nothing standing in the way, theoretically. The Liberal Party pulled this stunt a couple of times. Most notably, Gladstone resigned the leadership, leaving the party with a Commons and Lords leader, but no *party leader*, from 1875-1880, and then took the leadership back after the party won an election in that state.

Sunak is PM until he resigns, and advises Charles to appoint someone who can command the confidence of the Commons. The reason it won’t happen is that it hasn’t happened in the post-war era, is a bit of a fiddle with the party constitution (which assured members a vote on their leader) and will only cause the Tories more trouble.

[...]

After dissolution, Sunak or whoever the Cabinet designates, remains PM until July 5th, the Conservatives won't have a leader until after the election.

If the Conservatives fail to elect any MP ( given their dire straits why not ?) they won't have a leader, according to their rules it has to be an MP not a Lord.

Hmm, right... So no chance of happening what is quite common in other European countries, where the incumbent PM remains as caretaker but the party in power presents another candidate. Plus, yeah, there is no time for this kind of process, 40 days until election day.

This won't happen but I, for one, will laugh my ass off to death if they import this move from the Continent for the sake of pinning the end of 14 years on David Cameron (something something broken clock):

https://twitter.com/carolvorders/status/1794428466206511613

[brucejoel99]

Rishi watched Keir kick his Saturday morning off by promising to lower the voting age to 16, saw that most recently polled 13 points underwater (May 2023: 37% yes / 50% no / 13% don't know), & decided to respond by challenging Keir to hold Rishi's non-alcoholic beer as he introduces a policy (arbitrarily bringing mandatory national service back) that, when most recently polled, recorded voters over 65 as no better than evenly split (September 2023: 46% support / 46% opposed / 8% don't know). What a hilarious split-screen contrast of life & death in politics.

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, here's a summary of the next month of debate on this topic:

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1794485050907447599

[brucejoel99]

Tania Mathias, who won Twickenham off of Vince Cable in the Lib Dem apocalypse of 2015 only to lose it back to him in the snap 2017 general election, now T-May's favored Maidenhead successor:

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1794502132470870075

[brucejoel99]

They're trying to lose, aren't they?

Honestly seems that way, doesn't it? Calling the election on a lark when the party is unprepared in over 200 constituencies. Blair-ing "Things Can Only Get Better" over his election call while he was busy getting drenched head-to-toe by heavy rain because No. 10 apparently forgot the concept of an indoor speech after COVID. His Welsh football mistake. Docking the sinking ship at the Titanic Quarter in Belfast because the Tory just had to go on a 4-nation tour like Nixon went to Hawaii in 1960. Trusting Gove to not retire. One-up'ing a tepidly unpopular Starmer announcement by announcing certifiably insane policy. If he's a Labour mole playing the long game, I'm not sure what he should've done any differently to kick the campaign off. I'm just sayin', if we never actually ruled out Truss being a secret Lib Dem mole solely intent on taking the Tories down, maybe we can't rule out a guy who was 16 in 1997 being a secret Blair fanboy either

[brucejoel99]

https://torymanifesto.org.uk/

This is brutal

Mr. President, there's a 2nd parody Tory manifesto website: https://www.conservativemanifesto.org.uk/

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/WhoTargetsMe/status/1794689116862656896https://twitter.com/ZacGoldsmith/status/1795059856446980240

I understand the anger towards Sunak who has damaged the Party almost beyond repair and all but guaranteed the majority of his MPs will lose their job next month.

But it's hard to muster much sympathy given that none of this would have happened without the complicity of a majority of the Party & what is now unfolding was entirely predictable- indeed predicted.

The hope is that when Sunak disappears off to California in a few weeks there are at least some decent MPs left around which to rebuild 🤞🙏🤞

Meanwhile, North of Hadrian's Wall:

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1795017247330545986

[brucejoel99]

Please end up being LOTO:

https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1795113386415423770

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1795119365844517293

[brucejoel99]

Andy Street won't run for Parliament:

https://x.com/andy4wm/status/1795160893208019344

"I want an executive leadership role, it's quite literally the only way in which I could be of public service, which is why I won't stand to be a Tory MP & potential Leader of the Opposition/Prime Minister-in-waiting." The Liberal Party of 1922 is truly sending its regards from beyond the grave.

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat? Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Rishi is the MP for Richmond (Yorks), a wealthy rural constituency that's one of the safest Tory seats in the country: it's the former seat of ex-party grandee Lord Hague, it has literally never been held by Labour, it's been a Tory stronghold since the early 20th century, it's presumably in the top 80 seats that one could reasonably expect to remain Tory even if they genuinely win no more than 80 seats, & yet, a 2-month-old MRP poll suggests that Sunak could lose it, given a shaky lead in the new boundary-changed Richmond & Northallerton constituency of just 2.4%.

Is Sunak himself in a safe seat?

Yes: generally prosperous countryside and small towns with a significant military element (one of its largest settlements is Catterick Garrison). It was nearly lost in the 1989 by-election which first sent William Hague to Parliament -- indeed if it hadn't been for the Lib Dem/SDP split it presumably would have been -- but losing it in a General Election would be spectacular.

I believe the most recent similarity is still John Howard losing his seat in 2007, although his Bennelong seat had become increasingly marginal over the 30+ years he represented it, whereas for the UK, Sunak losing would undoubtedly be the new Portillo moment to crown them all; it may even justify renaming it the Rishi moment. "Were you still up for Sunak?"

Any takes on his future? I'm not sure he goes back to become a backbencher. He more seems like someone who would go into the private sector and make a fortune.

Yes, that's what a lot of people seem to think. (Hence why Peston asked him that question.)

Supposedly supporting this further is that the 4th of July is a rather ideal date if you're looking to get the family moved back to Stanford in time for the start of the new school year in late Aug.

[brucejoel99]

Maybe more of a question for the THIGMOO thread, but curious if there's a sense of who is getting parachuted in (beyond the Morgan McSweeney rumours), now we're under GE rules, and the NEC can basically do what it wants in selections?

Rachel Reeves into No. 10 circa summer-autumn 2030

[brucejoel99]

🦀

https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1795186272954196368

[brucejoel99]

"Kwarteng drank champagne with bankers to celebrate mini-Budget"

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/1795571297403236611

[brucejoel99]

Meow.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1799189236744163459

Lest we forget that the Tories are only even existentially imploding right now because Piers Morgan calling Farage a wimp to his face on live TV 9 days ago goaded him into standing.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1799352632974225571

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1799394769824616736

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Phillip_Blond/status/1799464959232897205https://twitter.com/Phillip_Blond/status/1799571044786712927

[brucejoel99]

How does this even work mechanically? Parliament has been dissolved. How can Charles make someone the new PM if Parliament is out of session?

I don’t see how he could unless he has the authority to call parliament back into session or delay the election.

Parliament is already dissolved so there isn’t a government for him to appoint a PM to.

For an immediate appointment, the Tories first need to amend their party leadership rules technically requiring candidates to be MPs, since that'd be a bit tricky right now as, like you point out, there aren't any MPs rn. Likewise, the mechanism for Charles constitutionally appointing a PM is whoever has the confidence of the House of Commons... but there's no Commons rn (& it can't be recalled because it doesn't presently exist), so practically, he'd recommend Cameron with the still-existent Cabinet's agreement to Charles, & Charles would appoint Cameron to preside over Cabinet through the election, since constitutionally, the British executive is technically government-by-Cabinet, rather than one headed by a PM.

[brucejoel99]

Couldn't Sunak resign as Conservative Party leader but not as Prime Minister?

Yes. With the party maintaining any credibility? Who knows?

[brucejoel99]

How does this even work mechanically? Parliament has been dissolved. How can Charles make someone the new PM if Parliament is out of session?

I don’t see how he could unless he has the authority to call parliament back into session or delay the election.

Parliament is already dissolved so there isn’t a government for him to appoint a PM to.

For an immediate appointment, the Tories first need to amend their party leadership rules technically requiring candidates to be MPs, since that'd be a bit tricky right now as, like you point out, there aren't any MPs rn. Likewise, the mechanism for Charles constitutionally appointing a PM is whoever has the confidence of the House of Commons... but there's no Commons rn (& it can't be recalled because it doesn't presently exist), so practically, he'd recommend Cameron with the still-existent Cabinet's agreement to Charles, & Charles would appoint Cameron to preside over Cabinet through the election, since constitutionally, the British executive is technically government-by-Cabinet, rather than one headed by a PM.

That seems very stringent. What would happen if Sunak passed away tomorrow? surely cabinet will simply vote for someone as caretaker with the king's assent.

What would happen if a war or some catastrophe happened and the country needed emergency legislation after parliament dissolved? will they just use royal proclamations until a new parliament is convened?

After Parliament dissolves, legislation becomes impossible, because there's no Parliament to recall or have the confidence of. 'Til it's back, the Constitution shrugs... but His Majesty's Government continues in place 'til the election, with the King still acting on the advice of the PM & Ministers of the Crown (who are technically independent of the Commons), & the PM's appointment obviously isn't technically parliamentary business, with the King nominally retaining the authority to appoint Ministers of the Crown (the convention that the King appoints the leader of the largest party in the Commons to be PM is based only on the Government needing the Commons' support to pass a Budget, which isn't a concern during a dissolution period), so Charles could act on Cabinet's advice re: who to appoint to be a new PM even while the Commons isn't sitting. Presumably, if Sunak did randomly drop dead as the incumbent PM, Cabinet would come up with a name to recommend to Charles as the "caretaker" PM 'til the election, presumably one of the incumbent Great Offices of State (but this would be unchartered constitutional waters: say there was a genuine conflict within Cabinet as to who should be the new PM, & the Palace tells them that Charles isn't unilaterally picking & Cabinet has to sort itself out, & Cabinet just f**ks off anyway, No. 10 may very well just automatically revert to No. 11, with the Chancellor holding both offices 'til the election). Realistically, Britain can be effectively governed for a brief period of time without a Parliament, or even a PM, so long as there are incumbent Secretaries of State, given their executive powers.

[brucejoel99]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

An election in which large numbers of people are voting against an unpopular incumbent Tory government rather than for the Labour opposition is basically the Lib Dems' bread & butter, liable to lead to their national share of the vote being unmoored from their constituency results. In fact, Labour & the Lib Dems alike pretty much both do their best when the Tories are unpopular af & they're each a clear choice to take a Conservative candidate out by a self-directed, organized tactical voting campaign undertaken specifically against the Tories. If anything, it's a repeat-on-steroids of 1997, the prior anti-Tory election in which the Lib Dems' share of the vote didn't correlate very well with the number of seats they won, given that they actually won a reduced share of the vote relative to 1992 but gained a bunch of seats anyway (doubling their seat total) because Tory voter turnout collapsed & there was (perhaps wrongly assumed) peak Lab/Lib tactical voting.

This time around, they'll win about 10% less of the vote than in 1997 & likely still manage to win about the same number of seats, if not more, thanks to their vote being substantially even more efficient this time around as a result of the Tories likewise just utterly imploding in terms of their own efficiency & electoral resources being spread very thinly. Indeed, this year looks set to deliver the most efficient Lib(eral) vote since 1923, which is really saying something miraclely for those of us who remember 2015, but credit where it's due, 2015-19 taught Ed Davey to return to the Paddy Ashdown & Charles Kennedy way of being a Liberal Democrat & stop engaging in the fatal error of their entire 2010s as a decade, which was spreading their resources thin for the sake of chasing the mirage of acting like a prime-ministerial candidate, a costly strategy that hindsight of only ever produced disappointment & failure for the party from Nick Clegg to Jo Swinson. Right now, the party is capitalizing on this absolute perfect storm of a Tory wipeout just like Ashdown did in 1997, by hyper-concentrating resources on the places where they can win thanks to the demographics being in their favor &/or the party being locally strong enough to mobilize councilors &/or there isn't a huge traditional Labour vote: socially liberal, well-educated urban areas; market towns full of commuters where the town itself constitutes a high proportion of the constituency's population relative to the countryside; the South West of England.

The party is also very NIMBY locally, near- if not on par with the Greens, so that's been a good wedge for building more support too. Employing all of these strategies in tandem = peak efficiency = a non-0 chance of Leader of the Opposition Sir Ed Davey. For how much fun an election 2024 has been, depending on where the math ultimately lands, 2029 may be too.