if there were no term limits

[freepcrusher]

would elections be less polarized? Because it seems you have a lot of changes in an incumbentless election. In 2000, you see a lot of border state areas swing to the republicans. In 08 it was the urban/suburban areas swinging to the democrats. In 2016 it was the upper midwest/great lakes areas that swung to the republicans.

I still think Bill Clinton was the most popular democratic party president in my lifetime and without term limits, I could see him staying in office until around 2020. Would he have prevented a state like Arkansas from going off the deep end. Or would it just have happened later?

[Progressive Pessimist]

No President would be able to stay in office for nearly 30 years. Even if someone like Clinton ran for four terms, something like the global financial crisis would happen and do their popularity in.

[dw93]

It depends on who post WWII runs for a third term. If it's Ike getting a third in 60, I think so. Otherwise, no.

[junior chįmp]

No, because in the last 70 years, only once has the party in power been elected to a third term regardless of whos the candidate.

The longer a party is in office, people just tire of them and their base lose motivation. People look at Trumps surprise 2016 win and think he had some special powers to turnout his base but really its just the standard party in power seeking a third term (or fourth in the case of 1992) election loss.

[wnwnwn]

I can see Clinton losing to Bush in 2000, maybe after a liberal primary rival. Nader could had gotten better results in this situation. Gore's enviromentalism gave him more "progressive cred" than Clinton.

[freepcrusher]

I can see Clinton losing to Bush in 2000, maybe after a liberal primary rival. Nader could had gotten better results in this situation. Gore's enviromentalism gave him more "progressive cred" than Clinton.

Clinton was very popular in 2000 and Bush won by 500 votes against Gore. Clinton probably wins by 10 points

[dw93]

I can see Clinton losing to Bush in 2000, maybe after a liberal primary rival. Nader could had gotten better results in this situation. Gore's enviromentalism gave him more "progressive cred" than Clinton.

Clinton was very popular in 2000 and Bush won by 500 votes against Gore. Clinton probably wins by 10 points

I wouldn't go that far. I agree Clinton would win, but Dubya was far more formidable than his father in 1992 or Bob Dole were and it would for all intense and purposes be a 2 person race.  Clinton wins all of the Gore states plus FL, NH, NV, MO, OH, and AR.

[morgankingsley]

I always had a feeling that if there had never been term limits, 2008 would have been the election that would have done Clinton in. Which even then would be 16 years, the most of any president in history

[President Johnson]

It depends on who post WWII runs for a third term. If it's Ike getting a third in 60, I think so. Otherwise, no.

Actually I doubt any president would actually have gone for a third term. Ike and Reagan were relatively old at the end of their presidencies, at least for their era. Nixon may have in 1976 without Watergate. Clinton maybe in 2000 could be the exception. Bush would have been DOA in 2008 and Obama probably had enough in 2016. Trump for certain would have in 2024, but he was aleady defeated in 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It depends on who post WWII runs for a third term. If it's Ike getting a third in 60, I think so. Otherwise, no.

Actually I doubt any president would actually have gone for a third term. Ike and Reagan were relatively old at the end of their presidencies, at least for their era. Nixon may have in 1976 without Watergate. Clinton maybe in 2000 could be the exception. Bush would have been DOA in 2008 and Obama probably had enough in 2016. Trump for certain would have in 2024, but he was aleady defeated in 2020.

Yeah I can't see Ike and Reagan run for a third term so Clinton would be the first president to do so.
Trump yeah would have run in 2024 if he won in 2020 but he would be headed for a massive defeat in this upcoming election given how badly all long time incumbents are doing all across the West currently. Polarization would prevent him from doing as bad as the UK Tories/CDN Liberals but he probably loses worse than McCain did in 2008.


So really the only elections i can realistically see someone winning a third term is 2000 and 2016 as Clinton and Obama were young enough to do so unlike Eisenhower and Reagan and more popular than W/Trump too.

[morgankingsley]

Obama's tricky in this timeline. Pretending everything up until 2016 is the exact same as IRL minus no term limits, I do see a world where Obama is hopeful enough and fatigued enough that he wouldn't run in 2016, and be cautiously optimistic of Trump and be willing to give him a chance. Then after seeing how things turned out IRL, then he decides to throw his hat in the race in 2020 and defeats Trump in 2020, becoming the first president since 1892 to get elected to non consecutive terms, and do one more round in 2024, and either become the first 16 year president in history where he DEFINITELY retires after 2028 for good, or gets defeated after enough fatigue nationwide with him being president 12/16 years since 2008.