United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/DachshundColin/status/1793973478758195310

[afleitch]

A few points on polling.

The polling across the mayoralty elections in May was actually pretty good. Not all pollsters polled of course but if we look at the last poll from each company in April/May and bearing in mind a third of these were in London, the polls underestimated the Tories by 1.5 points and overestimated Labour by the same. Outside of London the errors were much tighter.

The Lib Dems and Greens were overestimated by 0.5 and Reform overestimated by 2 points though in a number of polls the overestimation was significantly higher.

More In Common, who polled outside of London were the most accurate, followed by Savanta. Both of which currently show higher Conservative shares and Labour leads of 17 points.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Virgin Jeremy Corbyn vs. The Chad Praful Nargund.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

[xelas81]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

He wants to be in NYC for July 4th firework at 9PM EST

[Logical]

Trying his best to avoid accidentally winning Richmond and Northallerton.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Virgin Jeremy Corbyn vs. The Chad Praful Nargund.

On a related note, how do people think Labour would be doing in the polls if still led by Corbyn?

[Blair]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

Something something 'four nation tour' something something 'unionist'

[Blair]

One very early view is that the these things build and build and as campaigns suffer and commit gaffe everyone looks for evidence of it; obviously many days to go but it is hard to see how the Conservatives can skim even 5-10 points off the lead (which still seems them lose & a Labour Majority) when they are not doing the basics right.

A very broad history of election campaigns in the UK (which we have a limited dataset!) shows that there have only been what 2 elections since 1945 when an unpopular government in poor form has been be able to run an inspiring and winning campaign; and in both those there was a Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem vote to squeeze & a labour leadership not trusted...

[YL]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

Aren't they? They usually do.

(Generally to mild amusement at the vote shares they get.)

[TheTide]

Another long-serving MP. Evennett has served over two separate spells - 1983-1997 and 2005-present.

https://twitter.com/DavidEvennettMP/status/1794009570672533645

[AustralianSwingVoter]

...why is he even in Northern Ireland? I can vaguely see it later on in the campaign to look statesmanlike or something (I suppose), but right now? It isn't as if his party is standing any candidates there?

In Levido's promised hung parliament the DUP are going to be critical to forming government, so maybe Rishi is over there to help them?

[Holmes]

So have Sunak and his team considered not having speeches and press events outdoors while it's raining or what.

[WD]

The Virgin Jeremy Corbyn vs. The Chad Praful Nargund.

On a related note, how do people think Labour would be doing in the polls if still led by Corbyn?

I believe this hypothetical was asked in a poll while back and it was 35-34 LAB-CON.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Talking of northern ireland, it's going to be marching season during the election campaign - maybe sunak is over to preemptively sooth things?

[YL]

You can find census data by ward mapped here: https://boundaryassistant.org/census/index.html?v=2.0

In terms of religion, most wards in the constituency are about 10% Muslim, rising to 20% in Finsbury Park. So it's not a big factor.

For those asking about demographics, this spreadsheet (prepared by "bjornhattan" of Vote UK) has a lot of 2021 Census stuff for the new boundaries in England and Wales. (There wasn't a 2021 Census in Scotland.)

Islington North is 12.4% Muslim, 87th highest in England and Wales. It is only 1.3% Arab; the most Arab seat is Queen's Park & Maida Vale, at just over 8%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do note that a) a fairly high proportion of people who ticked the 'Arab' box at the census are actually Somalis, and that b) a very high proportion of those who are not are not eligible to vote. Quite a lot appear to be Sudanese as it happens.

[afleitch]

-The Bridge-

'Iceberg, right ahead Sir!'

'So it's not a Woke Blob? Where's the damage?'

'A huge hole in third class, almost exclusively in fact. The ships Post Office is damaged, but they're all currently in the brig. The boiler room is over worked. We tried clapping but to no avail.'

'We all remember those dark days mid voyage. Everyone confined to their rooms. Sea sickness. I have demonstrated that I'm the most effective man to lead this ship. Don't place your trust in someone who has made u-turn after u-turn'

'Sir, you're soaking wet'

-Somewhere in third class-

'If elected your Captain, if you place your trust in me, I promise you I will open these gates.'

'Sir, there's not enough lightboats.'

-beat-

'I know what it's like to be in third class. To aspire towards a better life. But I also understand the tough decisions needed during this moment of nautical crisis. Now is not simply not the time to overwhelm the upper decks '

'But you just said...'

'This is a changed landing party. We have demonstrated that we have changed.'

(audible swimming)

-In the Marconi wireless room-

'Send out a distress signal!'

'Quiet man! Can't you see I have all these messages to send to the New York Times concerning access to women only lifeboat spaces!'

[Cassius]

A very broad history of election campaigns in the UK (which we have a limited dataset!) shows that there have only been what 2 elections since 1945 when an unpopular government in poor form has been be able to run an inspiring and winning campaign; and in both those there was a Liberal/SDP/Lib Dem vote to squeeze & a labour leadership not trusted...

Of course, the only election in which a party has actually been able to overturn a comparable polling deficit to the one the Tories now face was 2017 when Labour did it, but they had the advantage of being an opposition facing an incumbent government who were running a completely cack-handed campaign.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I heard a rumour at work that Sunak was going to be in Belfast yesterday morning and would be visiting the Ulster University campus, which is a nice shiny new building with suitable links to hi-tech industries.

The fact that they changed to the Titanic Quarter doesn't make me disbelieve the theory that somebody is trying to sabotage the campaign. Have any large bets been placed from IP addresses in Downing Street in recent days?

[WD]

- Announce soaking wet in the rain
-Ask a crowd if they’re looking forward to a football tournament they didn’t qualify for
-Visit the birthplace of the Titanic

Just going to be a daily thing isn’t it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1794028516465336828

[Torrain]

Wee Lagan Valley update, we have three candidate:

• DUP have this afternoon picked Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley as their candidate (at a press conference with all the body language of a funeral).
• Alliance are, of course, running their lead Lagan Valley MLA, Sorcha Eastwood, who ran Donaldson close in 2019.
• UUP are also running their Lagan Valley MLA - Robbie Butler.

No word yet on whether either nationalist party will run or stand down in favour of Alliance. TUV were calling for Donaldson to step down and call a by-election as recently as the 22nd of May - but it's unclear whether they'll run now he's been deselected.

[CumbrianLefty]

Claudia Webbe is running again!?!

Can she get less votes than Chris Williamson in 2019?

My initial instinct is that having the opportunity to vote *against Webbe* will make voters less likely to vote *against Labour*, but I’d be interested to hear from those with a better sense of the area - given how unpredictable Leicester East feels right now.

Though it turns out that the Tories have (pretty incredibly) not yet selected there, which surely can't help their chances unless they have some pretty spectacular "star" candidate to reveal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though it turns out that the Tories have (pretty incredibly) not yet selected there, which surely can't help their chances unless they have some pretty spectacular "star" candidate to reveal.

I wonder if they were planning to run their Group Leader (who re-defected to Labour after being assaulted by another Conservative councillor) or the councillor who assaulted their now former Group Leader?