Why does wbrocks67 get so much more flack than SnowLabrador?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If nothing else people often use him as a whataboutism (a fallacy to begin with) as to why SL is supposedly a good poster, which makes no sense.

However facts are:

-wbrocks67 has a far more accurate prediction record.
-wbrocks67 will actually debate you and come up with reasonings, even if they are slanted. He doesn't just post one-liners about how "*Republican* is doomed" and no elaborate, nor does he just mindlessly assume the absolute worst case scenario for Republicans in all circumstances.
-wbrocks67 actually takes into account new data and how things turn out and even course corrects to some extent. He doesn't just completely ignore how every election turns out and continue to predict in the exact same way he always with no regards to past results over and over and over.

Like yeah despite all that you can still argue he's too optimistic and a bit on the hackish side...but in terms of who is the more good faith predictor and debater it's a no brainer.

[Sir Mohamed]

I suspect because the polling picture doesn't look too good for Biden, and SL just seems to double down on this (while several users may not even take him seriously to begin with).

On the other hand, while wbrocks often has excellent points going through polls, "poll unskewing" often comes off as if he were a "sore loser" living in denial that Biden is in trouble. I personally don't agree with that characterization, as he's mainly just pointing out these inconsistencies. He's not even saying that Biden is assured to win any other prediction in nonsense.

That said, wbrocks had a much higher FF rating than SL. And I doubt that has changed since the last polls.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wbrocks predicts rosy results for democrats in pretty much every election. And I'm sorry but even though his side "won" in 2018, 2020, his predictions were much more d friendly than the over results. That's not accurate

[kwabbit]

Wbrocks is the best D hack on the polling board. He has an actual theory of the case and isn't just Brandon posting about 270-268 with no reasoning except vibes, and he actually engages and responds to arguments. I've really grown to like him after initially being annoyed in 2020.

That being said, he doesn't have a prediction record. Notice that he never estimates what the result will be; you can't pin him down on that. One can assume that it's a few points to the left of the 538 average, but I can't recall him ever outright saying a Dem in a tossup race will win.

[Beet]

He did correctly point out that the early results in the MD-SEN primary were looking good for Alsobrooks, despite her only being up in PG county and Baltimore City at that point. Although that is likely due to knowledge of how EV/ED votes would break and the order in which they were counted, rather than any special insight based on polling.

[°Leprechaun]

If you don't like someone you have the option of ignoring them.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wbrocks predicts rosy results for democrats in pretty much every election. And I'm sorry but even though his side "won" in 2018, 2020, his predictions were much more d friendly than the over results. That's not accurate

I didn't say he was completely accurate, I said he was more accurate than SnowLabrador. That may be a low bar to clear, but he very much did so.

[President Johnson]

Good point by BRTD raised here.

You may perceive wbrocks67 as hackish, but he's a great poster who gets too much flack here. What he mainly does is looking at polls and providing some inconsistencies without making outlandish predictions. You may think he's not always right or cherrypicking data, but he constantly tries to explain his viewpoints while never getting personal or rude. That's pretty much why there's a subforum for polls. Even though I sometimes come to different conclusions, I always enjoy reading his posts.

SL most of time doesn't provide more insights as to why he's predicting a certain outcome other than in his view, just everything is a net negative for Biden/Democrats.

[°Leprechaun]

Good point by BRTD raised here.

You may perceive wbrocks67 as hackish, but he's a great poster who gets too much flack here. What he mainly does is looking at polls and providing some inconsistencies without making outlandish predictions. You may think he's not always right or cherrypicking data, but he constantly tries to explain his viewpoints while never getting personal or rude. That's pretty much why there's a subforum for polls. Even though I sometimes come to different conclusions, I always enjoy reading his posts.

SL most of time doesn't provide more insights as to why he's predicting a certain outcome other than in his view, just everything is a net negative for Biden/Democrats.

His view is in line with the polls. Perhaps the polls are wrong, but there is a reason for his view.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good point by BRTD raised here.

You may perceive wbrocks67 as hackish, but he's a great poster who gets too much flack here. What he mainly does is looking at polls and providing some inconsistencies without making outlandish predictions. You may think he's not always right or cherrypicking data, but he constantly tries to explain his viewpoints while never getting personal or rude. That's pretty much why there's a subforum for polls. Even though I sometimes come to different conclusions, I always enjoy reading his posts.

SL most of time doesn't provide more insights as to why he's predicting a certain outcome other than in his view, just everything is a net negative for Biden/Democrats.

His view is in line with the polls. Perhaps the polls are wrong, but there is a reason for his view.

No, SL predicts the exact same thing regardless of polls. He starts with the assumption that Democrats will lose big and works backwards from there if he tries to justify it at all. He famously promised to leave the forum forever (and did not) if Fetterman or Shapiro won, and Shapiro never trailed in a single poll, and that's just the most famous example. He predicted a red wave in 2020, and even 2018 although he wasn't a prominent poster then. Please note the "if he tries to justify it at all" part as well, as often he doesn't, see him saying there was a 0% chance the Mississippi Senate would pass Medicaid expansion when they did about a week later and claiming with no explanation Biden would not be on the ballot in Ohio, even though he now will be.

If one predicts the Republicans will win every single election, they'll be right about 50% of the time, so that's not a good batting average at all. One can probably even pull of a 90% one with all the safe races. But when one predicts Republicans will win 100% of even remotely competitive races and even some that aren't (PA-GOV 2022 as noted) and doesn't have any real backing to these views which he doesn't the majority of the time, I don't see how that makes them better than someone who does the opposite but at least can come up with some justification.

Also worthy of note that he's usually muted from election reporting threads because he would derail them with dishonest portrayals of numbers (like making a projection from 1% reporting from one of the most Republican parts of a district), and this is the real reason why people can't stand him and "just put him on ignore" doesn't work. If everyone ignored him, he'd be harmless sure. But now putting him on ignore means that instead of having to read SnowLabrador dooming posts clogging up and derailing threads it means you have to read people arguing with SnowLabrador posts clogging up and derailing the threads which is no better. Maybe you could say the people who argue with him are worse than he is, like I say with Fuzzy Bear, but the root of the problem in this case is very obvious.

[Ferguson97]

Because wbrocks67 actually puts effort into his posts and sincerely believes them. SnowLabardor is a troll who behaves that way for attention. There's no sport in dunking on the latter. It's like those trophy hunters who shoot a lion with a sniper rifle from a helicopter.

[°Leprechaun]

His view is in line with the polls. Perhaps the polls are wrong, but there is a reason for his view.

I was only referring to the POTUS election.

[Fuzzy Bear]

wbrocks67 is a hack.  He's a Democratic hack, and people don't like hacks.  He is, however, a more knowledgeable hack who is not nasty or obnoxious, so I don't understand why he gets flack.  He's better in predictions and he's better, personally; that SHOULD mean less flack, but this is Atlas.

[Mr. Smith]

He gets more flack than SL? News to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because SL does it to get someone mad at Biden, wbrooks does it to correct polls that are wrong

[Alben Barkley]

SnowLabrador is either clinically anxious or a troll, and in either case his posts can actually be entertaining in a dramatic sort of way.

Wbrocks however is just so hackish it’s annoying. If I wanted someone to spin every piece of bad news for Biden as ackshually good somehow and every piece of mildly good news for him as clear evidence the election is already won, I’d just watch MSNBC and immerse myself in a Twitter bubble. The obsessive crosstabs--diving, utter refusal to reconsider priors based on new evidence, and just outright denialism and more is beyond exhausting and reminiscent of the 2020 MAGA truthers if not worse (in part because at least they were actually somewhat vindicated whereas it is highly unlikely that somehow this time the polls will overestimate Trump). Doesn’t help either that he manages to derail just about every thread in the 2024 board into the same repetitive debate. Like we get it, dude. You’re a Biden stan who doesn’t want to accept reality. Awesome. We heard you the first 13,000 times. Now please just f—k off to smugposting on lib Twitter already and let the rest of us actually analyze the race objectively.

Seriously, I just don’t get along with people who are dogmatic and never have no matter how well their views align with mine otherwise. We simply see the world entirely differently. I try to look past my own biases to analyze the situation as it is, not how I want it to be, while Wbrocks types seem to try to twist reality to force it to conform with what they wish it was. As far as I can fell that only sets you up for inevitable failure and disappointment, and it just rubs me the wrong way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

SnowLabrador is either clinically anxious or a troll, and in either case his posts can actually be entertaining in a dramatic sort of way.

Wbrocks however is just so hackish it’s annoying. If I wanted someone to spin every piece of bad news for Biden as ackshually good somehow and every piece of mildly good news for him as clear evidence the election is already won, I’d just watch MSNBC and immerse myself in a Twitter bubble. The obsessive crosstabs--diving, utter refusal to reconsider priors based on new evidence, and just outright denialism and more is beyond exhausting and reminiscent of the 2020 MAGA truthers if not worse (in part because at least they were actually somewhat vindicated whereas it is highly unlikely that somehow this time the polls will overestimate Trump). Doesn’t help either that he manages to derail just about every thread in the 2024 board into the same repetitive debate. Like we get it, dude. You’re a Biden stan who doesn’t want to accept reality. Awesome. We heard you the first 13,000 times. Now please just f—k off to smugposting on lib Twitter already and let the rest of us actually analyze the race objectively.

Seriously, I just don’t get along with people who are dogmatic and never have no matter how well their views align with mine otherwise. We simply see the world entirely differently. I try to look past my own biases to analyze the situation as it is, not how I want it to be, while Wbrocks types seem to try to twist reality to force it to conform with what they wish it was. As far as I can fell that only sets you up for inevitable failure and disappointment, and it just rubs me the wrong way.

He's the single most dull and predictable poster on the forum. You could feed his whole posting history into ChatGPT and it could probably imitate him in a way that no one could tell the difference. Hell a chat bot from ten years ago could probably successfully imitate him.