Criteria for a presidential mandate

[Plankton5165]

How well does a president usually need to do in a presidential election to receive a presidential mandate?

I hear that in 1984, Reagan needed to win all 50 states, while in 1996, Clinton needed to get at least 50% of the vote.

[wnwnwn]

FDR 1936: Win over 75% EV's: Done
FDR 1940: Same: Done
FDR 1944: Same, and war success: Done
Truman: Win over 66% EVs: Failure
Eisenhower 1956: Win over 75% EV's: Done
LBJ: Win over 75% EVs: Done
Nixon 1972: Win over 75% EV's: Done
Carter 1976: Win over 66% EV'S: Failure
Reagan 1984: Win over 66% EV's: Done
Bush Sr 1992: Win over 66% EV's: Failure
Clinton 1996: Win over 66% Ev's: Done
Bush Jr: Win over 66% EV's: Failure
Obama: Win over 66% EV's: Failure

[Sir Mohamed]

FDR 1936: Win over 75% EV's: Done
FDR 1940: Same: Done
FDR 1944: Same, and war success: Done
Truman: Win over 66% EVs: Failure
Eisenhower 1956: Win over 75% EV's: Done
LBJ: Win over 75% EVs: Done
Nixon 1972: Win over 75% EV's: Done
Carter 1976: Win over 66% EV'S: Failure
Reagan 1984: Win over 66% EV's: Done
Bush Sr 1992: Win over 66% EV's: Failure
Clinton 1996: Win over 66% Ev's: Done
Bush Sr: Win over 66% EV's: Failure
Obama: Win over 66% EV's: Failure

You mean Bush Jr? Obama won 67.8% of EC in 2008 and 61.7% in 2012.

I don't think the EC is really an indicator. Especially with the 3rd parties in the mix. Trump won more EVs than W in 2004 despite losing the NPV by 2 pts. instead of winning by that percentage. Reagan won slightly more EVs in 1980 than Johnsin in 1964 while the margin was just under 10 pts. instead of 22 pts. Wilson in 1912 won 81% of the EC despite just obtaining 41% of the vote.

[President Johnson]

270 electoral votes.

[Plankton5165]

FDR 1936: Win over 75% EV's: Done
FDR 1940: Same: Done
FDR 1944: Same, and war success: Done
Truman: Win over 66% EVs: Failure
Eisenhower 1956: Win over 75% EV's: Done
LBJ: Win over 75% EVs: Done
Nixon 1972: Win over 75% EV's: Done
Carter 1976: Win over 66% EV'S: Failure
Reagan 1984: Win over 66% EV's: Done
Bush Sr 1992: Win over 66% EV's: Failure
Clinton 1996: Win over 66% Ev's: Done
Bush Jr: Win over 66% EV's: Failure
Obama: Win over 66% EV's: Failure

The criteria today should be 60% EVs.

[Pres Mike]

270 electoral votes.

Exactly. 270 gives you a mandate to lead

That said, if you want a mandate for change, you need to win enough of a majority in both houses of congress

[President Johnson]

270 electoral votes.

Exactly. 270 gives you a mandate to lead

That said, if you want a mandate for change, you need to win enough of a majority in both houses of congress

Yes, you pretty much need a trifecta with majorities that can offset potential defections from within the caucus. Unfortunately it has become so partisan and extremely difficult to get big things done with bipartisan votes so that even in divided government a president can be successful legislatively. Although I would argue a (sane) Republican president could get more done with a Democratic congress than even a moderate Democratic president with a Republican congress.

However, in presidential history, landslides didn't always mean much for the next term. Warren Harding swept into office and was tainted by scandals within his administration before he died. After his landslide reelection, Roosevelt got much less done in his second term than in his first and the court packing plan failed spectacularly. Eisenhower's second term was pretty much continuation of the status-quo, and even LBJ's victory led into the Vietnam disaster. Nixon won 49 states and spent the remainder of his term battling Watergate before he resigned in disgrace. Reagan won an equal landslide and got into the Iran-Control scandal.

[Sumner 1868]

A Electoral College landslide with a supermajority in Congress. Nobody has had a real mandate since 1964.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I would say if you can hold your opponent to under 200 electoral votes, that's strong enough of a mandate in these polarized times.

[Pres Mike]

A Electoral College landslide with a supermajority in Congress. Nobody has had a real mandate since 1964.

Reagan 1980 and Obama 2008 clearly had mandates going into office for change

After the Georgia runoffs, I think President Biden got a mandate for more stimulus and a larger recovery package.

[Schiff for Senate]

Majority of the popular vote + 270 electoral votes, tbh.

Electoral landslides like Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968 obscured their razor-thin victories in the NPV, which kind of dampened their presidential mandate.

[President Johnson]

Majority of the popular vote + 270 electoral votes, tbh.

Electoral landslides like Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968 obscured their razor-thin victories in the NPV, which kind of dampened their presidential mandate.

1960 and 1968 weren't electoral landslides by any stretch of the imagination. Kennedy and Nixon didn't even reach 60% of the electoral votes. If there were some while the popular vote wasn't, 1912, 1980 (maybe), 1992 and 1996 fit the description much better.

[Schiff for Senate]

Majority of the popular vote + 270 electoral votes, tbh.

Electoral landslides like Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon in 1968 obscured their razor-thin victories in the NPV, which kind of dampened their presidential mandate.

1960 and 1968 weren't electoral landslides by any stretch of the imagination. Kennedy and Nixon didn't even reach 60% of the electoral votes. If there were some while the popular vote wasn't, 1912, 1980 (maybe), 1992 and 1996 fit the description much better.

Perhaps landslide was an exaggeration, but both won 300+ electoral votes, and that to me is a presidential mandate at the very least. My point was, their clear electoral majority belies just how evenly split the popular vote was in both elections (Kennedy+0.17 in 1960 and Nixon+0.7 in 1968).

In fact, maybe they couldn't get 60% of the electoral vote (Nixon would, btw, if Wallace's EVs are discounted and it is a two-way electoral vote between him and Humphrey), but neither of them managed even half the popular vote.

A majority of the NPV is, to me, the other indicator of a clear presidential mandate. When they don't manage a majority, it's usually because of a razor-thin popular vote margin, and fundamentally, it inherently means that a majority of American voters didn't want them as president.

Even as Kennedy/Nixon attained the first mandate, neither of them could get the second.

[addyj76ers]

A presidential mandate is defined by the clear and decisive support of the electorate, usually indicated by a significant margin of victory in an election. This mandate is further reinforced when the winning candidate's policy platform aligns closely with public opinion, ensuring that the president has the political capital to enact their agenda. Strong bipartisan support in key legislative bodies also solidifies a presidential mandate, enabling smoother implementation of policies. Finally, consistent approval ratings throughout the term reflect ongoing public endorsement, validating the president's actions and decisions.