If Democrats go all out on the pro-abortion stuff, do they risk losing a lot of pro-life voters?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Yes. If you decide to make the election about something and center your campaign around it, people who disagree with you on that issue may believe you, even if they've stood with you until now because they saw other issues as being at the forefront. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

If you ask whether abortion should be legal before viability, a majority will say yes. But if you ask whether abortion should be legal in the second trimester, a majority will say no.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Contrary to what some posters here apparently believe, polling shows that the "median" position on abortion is not "let the states decide whatever they want," but rather "no bans before viability." The original Roe decision reflects the latter position.

If you ask whether abortion should be legal before viability, a majority will say yes. But if you ask whether abortion should be legal in the second trimester, a majority will say no.

Not doubting you, but can you share the polls you’re referring to for the second statement?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321143/americans-stand-abortion.aspx

When asked about the legality of abortion at different stages of pregnancy, about two-thirds of Americans say it should be legal in the first trimester (69%), while support drops to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third. Majorities oppose abortion being legal in the second (55%) and third (70%) trimesters.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Re: polling shows people prefer to ban abortion in the second trimester.

We have a real world test case. Arizona currently allows abortion up until 15 weeks and there is a referendum that would extend it to 24 weeks. Since Arizona is more Republican on average than the country, can we agree that if the referendum passes, that polling isn’t accurately capturing how people feel when push comes to shove?

It's not a clear test case for it because we can expect the people pushing the referendum will be  campaign on it in terms of protecting against abortion being made more restrictive than it is currently.   

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Re: polling shows people prefer to ban abortion in the second trimester.

We have a real world test case. Arizona currently allows abortion up until 15 weeks and there is a referendum that would extend it to 24 weeks. Since Arizona is more Republican on average than the country, can we agree that if the referendum passes, that polling isn’t accurately capturing how people feel when push comes to shove?

It's not a clear test case for it because we can expect the people pushing the referendum will be  campaign on it in terms of protecting against abortion being made more restrictive than it is currently.   

We live in an environment where both sides are making arguments of various truthfulness constantly, and that applies equally well to the poll question as to the election. In the case of the election, people are making a more conscious decision based on months of considering arguments and with an opportunity to shape policy; you’d be hard-pressed to argue that a single question in a poll is somehow “realer” and magically free of external influence.

Especially because it sure looks like some share of people telling pollsters they were pro-life before Dobbs changed their opinion after the change they thought was impossible actually happened.

I will always take revealed preference over polls as far as an accurate read of what people really think.

Some of the polls showing support for abortion restrictions are post-Dobbs. The "revealed preference" is only showing revealed preference between whatever two options people think are on offer.  A poll can at least show more than two options, and thus has the advantage of being a little more precise on an issue where people have complicated opinions.  There seems to be a significant number of people who want to restrict abortion after the first trimester or so but want to it to be allowed in the first, and if they feel they have to choose one or the other will opt for the latter.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Re: polling shows people prefer to ban abortion in the second trimester.

We have a real world test case. Arizona currently allows abortion up until 15 weeks and there is a referendum that would extend it to 24 weeks. Since Arizona is more Republican on average than the country, can we agree that if the referendum passes, that polling isn’t accurately capturing how people feel when push comes to shove?

It's not a clear test case for it because we can expect the people pushing the referendum will be  campaign on it in terms of protecting against abortion being made more restrictive than it is currently.   

We live in an environment where both sides are making arguments of various truthfulness constantly, and that applies equally well to the poll question as to the election. In the case of the election, people are making a more conscious decision based on months of considering arguments and with an opportunity to shape policy; you’d be hard-pressed to argue that a single question in a poll is somehow “realer” and magically free of external influence.

Especially because it sure looks like some share of people telling pollsters they were pro-life before Dobbs changed their opinion after the change they thought was impossible actually happened.

I will always take revealed preference over polls as far as an accurate read of what people really think.

Some of the polls showing support for abortion restrictions are post-Dobbs. The "revealed preference" is only showing revealed preference between whatever two options people think are on offer. 

Our default assumption has to be that people understand what’s on offer if the choice is sufficiently clear. I don’t think it can get clearer than what’s at stake in Arizona: replacing a 15-week ban (which actually allows abortion in the early 2nd trimester) with a 24-week limit with an exception for health of the mother after that date. You’re raising theories why we might not just take this as what it is but you aren’t making a case that you’re doing more than handwaving away the implications of the likely easy passage of this amendment for your theory that people don’t actually support second trimester abortion legality.

If this amendment passes, you’re welcome to come back to this thread to give your reasons why that doesn’t prove anything about your theory and that people still oppose second trimester abortion, regardless of how they vote. The fact you’re already making excuses for the loss several months before Election Day gives away the game, though.

The referendum doesn't mention anything about increasing the current limit of 15 weeks to 24 weeks.  It says it is constitutional protection of abortion rights until "viability."  If it was just the former I don't believe it would pass, because then it would be fought on the grounds of later term abortions, and the issue of preventing the legislature from having the ability to push back the limit to early in the first trimester wouldn't come up. I don't understand why you would insist this isn't an important difference for people.  Do you not believe anyone is actually moderate on the issue of abortion?