United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[King of Kensington]

What makes "posh" SW London more Lib Dem than "posh" west-central London?  I'm guessing it's a difference between affluent professionals vs plutocrats?

[Alcibiades]

What makes "posh" SW London more Lib Dem than "posh" west-central London?  I'm guessing it's a difference between affluent professionals vs plutocrats?

Yes, pretty much. The latter is on a completely different level of ‘posh’ from the former.

[JimJamUK]

What makes "posh" SW London more Lib Dem than "posh" west-central London?  I'm guessing it's a difference between affluent professionals vs plutocrats?

Posh west-central constituencies/councils still tend to have some strongly working class/ethnic minority areas, and these are noticeably more segregated than the SW. This provides a stronger Labour base that can’t easily be pushed aside. Labour used to do better in the SW (and still do much better in London Mayoral elections), but the Lib Dem’s overtook Labour decades ago and consequently squeezed Labour down to their real core vote, which in an area of affluent professionals is very low.

[King of Kensington]

Basically the top 10% vs. the top 1%, in other words. 

[TheTide]

Grant Shapps has made at least two public statements over the past week or so that virtually concede defeat at a national level. It remains to be seen if more senior figures make similar statements. Generally the history of doing this isn't good for the party in question. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Grant Shapps has made at least two public statements over the past week or so that virtually concede defeat at a national level. It remains to be seen if more senior figures make similar statements. Generally the history of doing this isn't good for the party in question. 

Shapps knows he's up against it, defending a constituency with a long history of swinging quite viciously.

[LAB-LIB]

Grant Shapps has made at least two public statements over the past week or so that virtually concede defeat at a national level. It remains to be seen if more senior figures make similar statements. Generally the history of doing this isn't good for the party in question. 

Shapps knows he's up against it, defending a constituency with a long history of swinging quite viciously.

He still hasn't been as interesting as his predecessor in Welwyn Hatfield was in 1997, particularly when it comes to targeting his opponent...

[Tintrlvr]

Basically the top 10% vs. the top 1%, in other words. 

I do think this is more of it. There’s a lot more generational wealth in Kensington and Chelsea than in Richmond and Kingston.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There have been shifts over time. Parts of Richmond itself (Twickenham etc remains much more 'ordinary') are now as wealthy in the plutocratic sense as anywhere in the country, whereas forty years ago it was all fairly ordinary professional middle class territory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Many polls out today. Deltapoll Lab 46, Con 19, Ref 16, LDem 10, Green 5, SNP 2; Redfield & Wilton Lab 43, Con 18, Ref 18, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 3; More in Common Lab 41, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 2; JL & Partners Lab 40, Con 23, Ref 18, LDem 9, Green 5, SNP 3.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Many polls out today. Deltapoll Lab 46, Con 19, Ref 16, LDem 10, Green 5, SNP 2; Redfield & Wilton Lab 43, Con 18, Ref 18, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 3; More in Common Lab 41, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 2; JL & Partners Lab 40, Con 23, Ref 18, LDem 9, Green 5, SNP 3.

All polls show stable Labour figures while Con decreases and Reform increases. The situation is getting worse for the Tories day by day.

[oldtimer]

Many polls out today. Deltapoll Lab 46, Con 19, Ref 16, LDem 10, Green 5, SNP 2; Redfield & Wilton Lab 43, Con 18, Ref 18, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 3; More in Common Lab 41, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 2; JL & Partners Lab 40, Con 23, Ref 18, LDem 9, Green 5, SNP 3.

The trend and the pace is the same as the last 2 weeks:

Tactical voting perhaps being measured, Reform advances, Conservatives decline.

Similar story among canvassers from what I gather:

Lab-Lib tactical voting, continuous deterioration of the Tory prospects all over, more Reform picked up.

[Flats the Flounder]

I put the Deltapoll results from today into Electoral Calculus. I know EC is far from perfect when it comes to accuracy, but the results were still surreal to me.

LAB 536
LIB 51
SNP 19
CON 17
REF 4
PC 3
GRE 1
IND 1 (Corbyn)

Holy crap.

[King of Kensington]

Labour with the Lib Dems as HM Official Opposition (and SNP ahead of either small-c conservative party) would be pretty wild to see.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/beyond_topline/status/1802761286348063079https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1802776785202954478

[Sol]

There have been shifts over time. Parts of Richmond itself (Twickenham etc remains much more 'ordinary') are now as wealthy in the plutocratic sense as anywhere in the country, whereas forty years ago it was all fairly ordinary professional middle class territory.

Is this just a function of gentrification?

[Tintrlvr]

There have been shifts over time. Parts of Richmond itself (Twickenham etc remains much more 'ordinary') are now as wealthy in the plutocratic sense as anywhere in the country, whereas forty years ago it was all fairly ordinary professional middle class territory.

Even if they are rich, it’s a different type of rich (and not generally inherited wealth). The difference is maybe kind of hard to pin down but it is clearly there.

[Alcibiades]

There have been shifts over time. Parts of Richmond itself (Twickenham etc remains much more 'ordinary') are now as wealthy in the plutocratic sense as anywhere in the country, whereas forty years ago it was all fairly ordinary professional middle class territory.

Even if they are rich, it’s a different type of rich (and not generally inherited wealth). The difference is maybe kind of hard to pin down but it is clearly there.

Indeed — an instructive difference seems that Barnes, the wealthiest ward in the borough of Richmond-upon-Thames, currently has an all-Lib Dem set of councillors, whereas those in the heart of South Kensington and Chelsea still have enormous Tory majorities. Although I would still say that there’s a difference in actual wealth as opposed to just culture there — in Richmond, there are probably only a few streets at best that are on the same level of genuinely plutocratic wealth that characterises large parts of Kensington and Chelsea (but yes, even those streets are probably a lot more Liberal/less Tory).

[beesley]

Lab-Lib tactical voting, continuous deterioration of the Tory prospects all over, more Reform picked up.

Given what you say here it seems to corroborate a story in the Financial Times that many seats, particularly in the South West, previously thought out of reach for the Lib Dems (e.g. Yeovil) were potentially back in play. And the Lib Dem campaign yesterday had an announcement about expanding rural fuel duty relief in some of the more peripheral areas. So the factors of tactical voting and Reform gains that are being picked up may help them in those places in which they had history but were seen as less fertile prospects in the last few years.

Of course those same factors can surely help Labour in seats with that same kind of story - but there wasn't a neat newspaper article to hand that I could cite.

[afleitch]

There's also some chatter that the 'nowcaster' and 'forecaster' polls that should be converging... aren't.

Some forecasting measures made assumptions about a Tory swingback that isn't happening with different voter movements now visible in polling.

[Tintrlvr]

There have been shifts over time. Parts of Richmond itself (Twickenham etc remains much more 'ordinary') are now as wealthy in the plutocratic sense as anywhere in the country, whereas forty years ago it was all fairly ordinary professional middle class territory.

Even if they are rich, it’s a different type of rich (and not generally inherited wealth). The difference is maybe kind of hard to pin down but it is clearly there.

Indeed — an instructive difference seems that Barnes, the wealthiest ward in the borough of Richmond-upon-Thames, currently has an all-Lib Dem set of councillors, whereas those in the heart of South Kensington and Chelsea still have enormous Tory majorities. Although I would still say that there’s a difference in actual wealth as opposed to just culture there — in Richmond, there are probably only a few streets at best that are on the same level of genuinely plutocratic wealth that characterises large parts of Kensington and Chelsea (but yes, even those streets are probably a lot more Liberal/less Tory).

My analogy (as a law firm partner myself) is that the law firm partner lives in Barnes, but the law firm partner’s client lives in Knightsbridge.

To those who aren’t in that world, that may feel like a meaningless difference, but it certainly does not feel that way on the inside. And it makes a meaningful political difference in NYC; no reason it shouldn’t do the same in London.

[Flyersfan232]

There's also some chatter that the 'nowcaster' and 'forecaster' polls that should be converging... aren't.

Some forecasting measures made assumptions about a Tory swingback that isn't happening with different voter movements now visible in polling.

shy don’t work with the shy tories voters aren’t voting for the tories shy reform shy lib dems voters perhaps?

[afleitch]

There's also some chatter that the 'nowcaster' and 'forecaster' polls that should be converging... aren't.

Some forecasting measures made assumptions about a Tory swingback that isn't happening with different voter movements now visible in polling.

shy don’t work with the shy tories voters aren’t voting for the tories shy reform shy lib dems voters perhaps?

Nobody is shy, is more likely.

[afleitch]

YouGov finally poll Scotland. It took them 11 days to release it, and has the gap narrow from 10 points to 4. Though it's now an older poll than the most recent three. But a data point is a data point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also some chatter that the 'nowcaster' and 'forecaster' polls that should be converging... aren't.

Some forecasting measures made assumptions about a Tory swingback that isn't happening with different voter movements now visible in polling.

With this in mind, it is worth noting that postal votes are going out now. Postal voting now makes up as much as 20% of the overall vote, so it will be interesting to see if this is incorporated into any of the latter models.