United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

In more media news, the Financial Times has backed Labour - though personally I will never forgive them (or the Independent, or the Economist) for supporting the Tories in such a gung-ho fashion back in 2015. The disaster of the past decade *could* have been avoided, and they are complicit in it.

[Germany1994]

When will the Sun announce its endorsement??

[JimJamUK]

Endorsement wise it’s telling how strong the Arts are for labour considering everything; clearly a sign of how the sector has been treated!

Absolutely, Labour has been getting a number of endorsements specifically linked to their arts policy for a while now, from actors to singers to businessmen. Given how choreographed these endorsements are, it’s interesting Labour are so keen for these people to emphasis their endorsement is based on Labour’s arts policy as opposed to issues more salient with the general public.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Regarding newspaper endorsements (not including that FT labour endorsement):

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1807103112978534410

Newspaper endorsements so far:

Daily Mirror - Labour
The Guardian - Labour
The Independent - Labour
The Daily Record - Labour
Daily Star - Count Binface
The Daily Telegraph - Conservative

Magazine endorsements so far:

The Economist - Labour
New Statesman - Labour

Unless this misses any other significant media endorsements, it appears Count Binface is in a dead heat with the Conservatives.  

[JimJamUK]

Newspaper endorsements so far:

Daily Mirror - Labour
The Guardian - Labour
The Independent - Labour
The Daily Record - Labour
Daily Star - Count Binface
The Daily Telegraph - Conservative

Magazine endorsements so far:

The Economist - Labour
New Statesman - Labour

Unless this misses any other significant media endorsements, it appears Count Binface is in a dead heat with the Conservatives.  

The Daily Mail has endorsed the Conservatives, albeit with an endorsement of Reform in a few no-hoper seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Reform candidate for Erewash* announced earlier that they were suspending their campaign and endorsing the Conservatives due to the issues around racist, bigoted etc. candidates and so on. This has had quite a bit of media attention. I suspect that this may be a sign that the Tories intend to push this whole business very hard in this final week.

_{*Derbyshire constituency based on Long Eaton and also including Ilkeston.}

[MABA 2020]

Ready for this election to be over now

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ready for this election to be over now

(Every US resident:) Hold my beer.

[Blair]

The Reform candidate for Erewash* announced earlier that they were suspending their campaign and endorsing the Conservatives due to the issues around racist, bigoted etc. candidates and so on. This has had quite a bit of media attention. I suspect that this may be a sign that the Tories intend to push this whole business very hard in this final week.

_{*Derbyshire constituency based on Long Eaton and also including Ilkeston.}

Telling that after 4 years of warnings and boasting about the big file CCHQ have on SKS that the fabled Tory attack machine has had to spend the whole campaign doing hits on reform…

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

in the event of an England win today, I can see the half-hearted campaign argument from the Tories about making a late comeback to win just like England did vs Slovakia

in the spirit of Bob Dole trying to do a whistle stop ala Harry Truman in 1996

ding ding ding:

https://twitter.com/politlcsuk/status/1807490713472426073?s=46&t=jolpFPhUdxZ...

[MillennialModerate]

What kind of crazy swings are we likely to get?

I read a 12% national swing was needed for a 1 seat majority for Labour.

So - if the polls are right we’re looking at what for a swing?

Which area of the country will see the biggest swings? I’d guess the red wall will see many of the

lifelong labour —> 19’ Conservative —-> ’24 Reform

But in other areas that are usual marginals but might have gone big for Boris, you might see wild numbers

[Philly D.]

Which area of the country will see the biggest swings? I’d guess the red wall will see many of the

lifelong labour —> 19’ Conservative —-> ’24 Reform

But in other areas that are usual marginals but might have gone big for Boris, you might see wild numbers

Probably the Home Counties -- there was a constituency poll in Gillingham which suggested a +30% swing to Labour. The swing won't be 30% there -- although a couple of places may come close -- but do note that a uniform 25% swing to Labour in the South East yields a number of Tory sets lower than 1 and 22-23% would mean the same in Herts and Beds.

[Blair]

Any hunches on hertsmere?

The local election results were terrible for the Tories and Dowden seems to be campaigning there a lot- it’s iirc got a sizeable Jewish population and is the type of place people are leaving London for.

[Torrain]

There’s only so much you can gleam from campaign visits. But it’s been quite striking to see the ScotLab and SNP targets over the past week.

Labour have sent the shadow cabinet to Alloa (notional 12k SNP majority), and Dundee Central (15k), while the SNP have had Swinney spend the final weekend in Falkirk (15k) and North Ayrshire (11k).

Both parties are campaigning as though Lab were ten points clear of the SNP, rather than the approx 5% lead they have in most polls.

[Pericles]

Sunak just keeps losing, lmao.

[resad]

What happens to Reform if Farage loses (unlikely I know) but another guy wins?

[Torrain]

What happens to Reform if Farage loses (unlikely I know) but another guy wins?

That would probably mean Tice (the last leader) winning Boston & Skegness. I imagine it would be a rerun of 2015-17 UKIP, where Farage and Carswell, his one MP, began feuding more and more aggressively, until one rage-quits the party.

Farage is many things, but he’s definitely not a team player. If you read accounts of the 2016 referendum, the Farage stuff is just him snarling about the official Leave campaign not giving him enough prominence and ignoring his advice, while Cummings et al desperately try to stop him becoming the face of Brexit.

[Tintrlvr]

What happens to Reform if Farage loses (unlikely I know) but another guy wins?

That would probably mean Tice (the last leader) winning Boston & Skegness. I imagine it would be a rerun of 2015-17 UKIP, where Farage and Carswell, his one MP, began feuding more and more aggressively, until one rage-quits the party.

Farage is many things, but he’s definitely not a team player. If you read accounts of the 2016 referendum, the Farage stuff is just him snarling about the official Leave campaign not giving him enough prominence and ignoring his advice, while Cummings et al desperately try to stop him becoming the face of Brexit.

I assume if Farage loses, he goes back to the U.S. to work with Trump. Don’t see a reason for him to stick around this time.

[beesley]

Farage is many things, but he’s definitely not a team player.

Goes without saying this works for the moment as Tice and anyone else knows it'll help their own aims, but try doing it every day for the next Parliament.

[Torrain]

Farage is many things, but he’s definitely not a team player.

Goes without saying this works for the moment as Tice and anyone else knows it'll help their own aims, but try doing it every day for the next Parliament.

Aye - feels like the Farage-Tice schism is a *when* not an *if*.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Farage is many things, but he’s definitely not a team player.

Goes without saying this works for the moment as Tice and anyone else knows it'll help their own aims, but try doing it every day for the next Parliament.

Aye - feels like the Farage-Tice schism is a *when* not an *if*.

Tice vs Farage seems like a "coughing baby vs hydrogen bomb" match up

[Torrain]

Tice vs Farage seems like a "coughing baby vs hydrogen bomb" match up

Oh, Tice isn't going to *win*, but if Farage rage-quits the party, and we get "shambling husk of Reform" vs "Farage party v3" it'll at least be more interesting than watching Nigel preside over another late-stage UKIP.

[Conservatopia]

Don't believe polls that ask if Event X made people more or less likely to vote for something. People who weren't supporting them will just always answer it made them less likely and people who were already supporting them will say it made them more likely.

Everyone knows this but the papers commission the polls anyway because it writes headlines.

[Conservatopia]

Farage is many things, but he’s definitely not a team player.

Goes without saying this works for the moment as Tice and anyone else knows it'll help their own aims, but try doing it every day for the next Parliament.

Aye - feels like the Farage-Tice schism is a *when* not an *if*.

Tice vs Farage seems like a "coughing baby vs hydrogen bomb" match up

It's sad really. It's like the writers went
"What if we had Farage but stripped away his genuine charm and humour and gave him a posh accent."
"Oh you mean like a southern Tory?"
"Yes but this one's not actually a Tory and he pretends to be from Hartlepool."
"Lmao that slaps let's do it and see if the viewers buy it."

[beesley]

Don't believe polls that ask if Event X made people more or less likely to vote for something. People who weren't supporting them will just always answer it made them less likely and people who were already supporting them will say it made them more likely.

Everyone knows this but the papers commission the polls anyway because it writes headlines.

Generally I feel as if we find out about what the big events are in a more obvious way, even if in hindsight, anyway (partly because we can see the change ourselves) e.g. D-Day this campaign. Happy to be proven wrong if there's research that suggests otherwise.

(Also Conservatopia, not seen much of you during the campaign period, so a belated hi)