Which of these political shifts will happen first?? Both states last flipped in the 1970s and both nearly flipped(in different races: Minnesota for President, Texas in a Senate race) late in the 2010s.
They are both on a similar level with regard for their proximity and potential.
Since 1992, the average number of carried states by presidential winners are 29. Winning Republicans—George W. Bush (30 and 31) and Donald Trump (30)—averaged 30 carried states. Winning Democrats—Bill Clinton (32 and 31), Barack Obama (28 and 26), and Joe Biden (25)—averaged 28 carried states. Highest number of carried states: 32. Lowest number of carried states: 25.
When it comes to a party’s best-performed states, Minnesota ranked in 2016 and 2020 as the Republicans’s No. 32 states. For the Democrats, Texas has trended in their direction to rank Nos. 41 (in 2000 and 2004), 36 (in 2008 and 2012), 29 (in 2016 despite a Republican pickup year), and 28 (in 2020).
I think Texas and ex-bellwether Florida are going in opposite directions in which the latter is becoming more Republican than the former. So, I think Texas is about to become the Democrats’s No. 27 best state.
A prevailing Republican winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.50 to +4.49 may be enough to carry Minnesota.
A prevailing Democrat winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +5.50 to +6.49 may be enough to carry Texas.
This considers prevailing Republicans, with 30 or 31 carried states, with winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +2 (for 30 states) or +3 (for 31 states).
This considers prevailing Democrats, with 25 or 26 carried states, with winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 (for 25 or 26 states) or +5 (for 26 or 27 states).
This is a good topic.
Poll
