1988 after 2 terms of HW Bush

[Sir Mohamed]

Bush wins the nomination in 1980 instead of Reagan and handily wins both 1980 and 1984. Ready to retire in 1988, there's an open seat election again. How does it turn out?

I suspect HW's VP would be the strong favorite for the nomination. I'm not sure whether Dukakis still becomes the Dem candidate.

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY) / Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) ✓
Governor Michael Dukakis (D-MA) / Congressman Dick Gephardt (D-MO)

The dynamics of the race would be a little different in that Republicans would be tacking to the right with Bush's inevitably more conservative vice president, which wouldn't necessarily be the best move as people were starting to turn against '80s excess. Dukakis is still nominated on the Massachusetts Miracle and all that, but the revolt of the agricultural and industrial sectors would be stronger without promises of "a kinder, gentler America" from a pre-neoliberal moderate Republican scion as OTL. Although Dukakis isn't the right candidate to channel that growing populist anger, he makes a much better choice for a running mate in Dick Gephardt. California also flips a little earlier without eight years of Reagan.

[Samof94]

Bush wins the nomination in 1980 instead of Reagan and handily wins both 1980 and 1984. Ready to retire in 1988, there's an open seat election again. How does it turn out?

I suspect HW's VP would be the strong favorite for the nomination. I'm not sure whether Dukakis still becomes the Dem candidate.

What if Reagan is just dead (from murder) in 1988 and H.W. had been President all these years instead?

[dw93]

I don't see Bush having the personal appeal/likability after a 1981-88 Presidency that Reagan had in real life, thus I think the stronger Democratic contenders enter the race and narrowly beat Bush's VP.

[Samof94]

I don't see Bush having the personal appeal/likability after a 1981-88 Presidency that Reagan had in real life, thus I think the stronger Democratic contenders enter the race and narrowly beat Bush's VP.

Who'd be pick, Dole?

[President Johnson]

I don't see Bush having the personal appeal/likability after a 1981-88 Presidency that Reagan had in real life, thus I think the stronger Democratic contenders enter the race and narrowly beat Bush's VP.

Who'd be pick, Dole?

Four years after he was on Ford's ticket? Doubtful. My bet would be Jack Kemp, Phil Crane or Paul Laxalt to appease the conservative wing.

[dw93]

I don't see Bush having the personal appeal/likability after a 1981-88 Presidency that Reagan had in real life, thus I think the stronger Democratic contenders enter the race and narrowly beat Bush's VP.

Who'd be pick, Dole?

Four years after he was on Ford's ticket? Doubtful. My bet would be Jack Kemp, Phil Crane or Paul Laxalt to appease the conservative wing.

This. Kemp is the only one of those three choices I can see having a shot at being elected too.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I don't see Bush having the personal appeal/likability after a 1981-88 Presidency that Reagan had in real life, thus I think the stronger Democratic contenders enter the race and narrowly beat Bush's VP.

Who'd be pick, Dole?

Four years after he was on Ford's ticket? Doubtful. My bet would be Jack Kemp, Phil Crane or Paul Laxalt to appease the conservative wing.

This. Kemp is the only one of those three choices I can see having a shot at being elected too.

I would agree. Paul Laxalt never seemed (from what I've read of him) like someone I could see in high office (his real-life Presidential consideration never moved beyond the exploratory stage).