United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Progressive Pessimist]

Reform really might come in second? And here I thought this would be the most predictable, foregone conclusion election this year.

Forget 'Downton Abbey.' This is entertaining British TV right here.

[Devout Centrist]

More in Common Lab 39, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3. MiC apply a particularly heavy re-weighting method, and just for completeness/comparisons sake the unadjusted figures are Lab 41, Con 22, Ref 14, LDem 11, Greens 6.

I am beginning to wonder if this will backfire on some pollsters, particularly if they're assigning undecided voters based on how they voted in 2019

[adma]

If we're talking about Reform *that* high and Labour receding to mid-30s, we might see a Reform breakthrough in Barnsley after all.

[Harlow]

If we're talking about Reform *that* high and Labour receding to mid-30s, we might see a Reform breakthrough in Barnsley after all.

That People Polling poll is a significant outlier and commissioned by GB News, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[Mike88]

If we're talking about Reform *that* high and Labour receding to mid-30s, we might see a Reform breakthrough in Barnsley after all.

That People Polling poll is a significant outlier and commissioned by GB News, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Indeed, but it follows the current trend of the Tories somewhat bellow 20% and neck and neck with Reform, MoE between 3-4%. Now, polls should be seen with caution and turnout could be a major factor.

[adma]

If we're talking about Reform *that* high and Labour receding to mid-30s, we might see a Reform breakthrough in Barnsley after all.

That People Polling poll is a significant outlier and commissioned by GB News, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I realize that.  I'm just stating that if we're to *actually* take a poll like that at face value, that's the territory we're in...

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So, along with the polls already mentioned in thread, we have some from other firms: Techne Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 17, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 2; BMG Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 19, LDem 9, Green 7, SNP 3, More in Common Lab 39, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3. MiC apply a particularly heavy re-weighting method, and just for completeness/comparisons sake the unadjusted figures are Lab 41, Con 22, Ref 14, LDem 11, Greens 6.

The PeoplePolling poll is... Wow!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1803513652906963170

This would be like a 230+ Labour majority. The Tories would probably have fewer than 50 seats, right?

If this poll is right it could tick every box for the most farcical election ever:

* Labour winning a supermajority with a lower percentage of the vote than Corbyn got in 2017
* Tories 0 seats in England
* Reform in 2nd by PV winning single digit seats
* Lib Dem Official Opposition despite coming 4th by PV
* Greens with 2/3rds the vote of the Lib Dems get something like 1/50th the seats

Really the only way it could get more absurd is if Labour won that supermajority with fewer votes than Corbyn 2019 and lost a half dozen seats to independents for good measure.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1803794890175721724

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

Also this poll was taken last year when Starmer was still leading in the polls by 20 points

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1692582192646434953

Corbyn was only leading the Tories by One point and that is despite being out of the spotlight since December 2019.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

I don't necessarily disagree with your point, but the election hasn't happened yet.

Labour might win 516 seats. It may win 400. It may "only" win 350.

We can't have these retrospectic discussions about Labour's campaign and strategy until the campaign, you know, *ends*

[Pericles]

Starmer has played it well politically by minimising his liabilities. This election is a 'referendum election' on the Tories, but Labour have ensured it stays that way.

However, I am worried that Labour won't actually deliver much change in government, and in a few years this could end up hurting them politically. They have backed down on so many policies that they have to reverse some-if they stick with their current tax promises then it's hard to see how public services improve. I also think Labour have moved to the right in ways that aren't necessary based on the polls, such as by not capping banker's bonuses again and backing down easily on their green investment plan.

So I am not optimistic about Labour's ability to make necessary changes that are controversial. I wouldn't bet on it being a transformational government, but we all know Labour will deviate from their promises in some way so hopefully they overperform.

[GoTfan]

Starmer has played it well politically by minimising his liabilities. This election is a 'referendum election' on the Tories, but Labour have ensured it stays that way.

However, I am worried that Labour won't actually deliver much change in government, and in a few years this could end up hurting them politically. They have backed down on so many policies that they have to reverse some-if they stick with their current tax promises then it's hard to see how public services improve. I also think Labour have moved to the right in ways that aren't necessary based on the polls, such as by not capping banker's bonuses again and backing down easily on their green investment plan.

So I am not optimistic about Labour's ability to make necessary changes that are controversial. I wouldn't bet on it being a transformational government, but we all know Labour will deviate from their promises in some way so hopefully they overperform.

Rory Stewart has made this point elsewhere. His fear is that if a Labour government fails to deliver meaningful change, then that will only end up empowering Reform. We are seeing a similar phenomenon play out in France right now, and to a lesser extent, here in Australia.

Starmer will end up with a decent mandate to say the least, and I hope does more than small-target stuff because otherwise, we could end up with PM Farage.

[YL]

The Greens have released internal constituency polls of both Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire, carried out by We Think (Omnisis). They show them ahead in both, though as usual for constituency polls sample sizes are small, and there are a lot of "don't knows". At least they should be good for bar charts.

Waveney Valley:  Green 23, Con 15, Lab 11, Reform 10, Lib Dem 4, won't vote 2, don't know 34
North Herefordshire: Green 21, Con 16, Lab 8, Reform 7, Lib Dem 2, won't vote 1, don't know 44

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/21/polling-for-greens-suggests-party-could-take-two-rural-seats-from-tories

Edit: ElectionMapsUK has what looks like better versions of these, with won't vote and don't know removed and presumably some extra weighting

Waveney Valley: Green 37, Con 24, Lab 17, Reform 16, Lib Dem 7
North Herefordshire: Green 39, Con 28, Lab 15, Reform 13, Lib Dem 4, SDP 1

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Reform becomes the second biggest party, and stays that way for the near-future, this might be a monkey's paw situation for Labour and the future of the UK.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I see Rishi’s latest attempt to swing the election is… threatening to take away drivers licenses and bank accounts from 18yos who refuse National Service. Talk about a vote winner!

[Battista Minola 1616]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

I would call you a crow for how much you appear to be engaging with straw men, but that would be an insult to one of my favourite animals. Anyway, Starmer's leadership working doesn't change that Labour would be comfortably ahead almost whatever else they had done, just like Blair having very effective political instincts doesn't change that Labour would have won in 1997 with any other leader.

[MillennialModerate]

So, along with the polls already mentioned in thread, we have some from other firms: Techne Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 17, LDem 12, Green 5, SNP 2; BMG Lab 42, Con 19, Ref 19, LDem 9, Green 7, SNP 3, More in Common Lab 39, Con 25, Ref 14, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 3. MiC apply a particularly heavy re-weighting method, and just for completeness/comparisons sake the unadjusted figures are Lab 41, Con 22, Ref 14, LDem 11, Greens 6.

The PeoplePolling poll is... Wow!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1803513652906963170

This would be like a 230+ Labour majority. The Tories would probably have fewer than 50 seats, right?

I think this would be more like a 150 seat majority with Farage as leader of the opposition. GOD that would be fun stuff

[Torrain]

https://x.com/timesscotland/status/1803827445709107276
Does Labour have a deal with the Devil or something?

The details here are not great for the SNP - they’re literally joking about covering their tracks, from the Corporate Body (who are now investigating):

The leaked screenshot depicts a snapshot of a conversation of a WhatsApp group, called “Office Manager Chat”, which appears to have a timer for messages to be automatically deleted.

One individual, who is named as “Paul” in the conversation, posted a message that read: “Guys, the new stamps. Can they be traced?”

Asked by a staff member who works in the office of Nicola Sturgeon, the former first minister, whether he was referring to “who purchased them and what they’re being used for”, the person who wrote the first message responded: “Can they be traced back to who purchased them?”

A member of SNP deputy leader Keith Brown’s office said she had “asked Rab in the mailroom and he said no”.

Another staff member said they were not aware of the stamps being traceable. Someone from the office of Shirley-Anne Somerville, the social justice secretary, replied: “If they can then a few people may be up in front of corporate body…”

It was clear the party has come around to the idea of bending expenses rules in this campaign. There was already controversy about them using expense-funded accommodation to house activists in marginal seats. But this… man. Particularly ironic given that they’re only resorting to tactics like this because fundraising has dried up. And fundraising dried up because of Branchform - it’s a vicious cycle.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

I would call you a crow for how much you appear to be engaging with straw men, but that would be an insult to one of my favourite animals. Anyway, Starmer's leadership working doesn't change that Labour would be comfortably ahead almost whatever else they had done, just like Blair having very effective political instincts doesn't change that Labour would have won in 1997 with any other leader.

I think the most important point that needs to be made is that Starmer isn't Blair 2.0. He's clearly to Blair's left, and probably to Brown's left. This is an uncomfortable fact for many Corbynites (who think Starmer is a red Tory) and Blairites (who think that Labour can only win elections with an ultra-centrist neoliberal leader).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Indeed the true Blairites will probably oust starmer quickly if he becomes unpopular (lets hope the insane idea they're mooting to inadvertently make Australian style spills via parliamentary action does not come to pass).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed the true Blairites will probably oust starmer quickly if he becomes unpopular (lets hope the insane idea they're mooting to inadvertently make Australian style spills via parliamentary action does not come to pass).

Will they be a sufficient large portion of the PLP to seriously threaten that? I thought unreconstructed Blairites were a small minority at this point.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/nowooski/status/1803709963564437804?s=46

To be fair, Labour isn't winning as much as the UK is just beyond sick of the incompetent party that was in charge for 14 years. Starmer isn't even well-liked, they just can't get worse.

Yeah. I’m sure they would be doing so much better with Corbyn, and that he had nothing at all to do with his party losing the last two times despite the Tories being unpopular even back then, the second time after blowing an initial poll lead so Boris Johnson of all people could win a landslide.

Yeah, I bet Labour would be winning at least 517 seats with Corbyn at the helm, not a measly 516. Indeed that’s not really even “winning” anyway. Obviously. Duh. Kinda pathetic to pretend that a 450+ seat majority, one of the greatest landslides in the history of the nation so massive that it might well drive your opposition into extinction, is somehow “winning.”

Also this poll was taken last year when Starmer was still leading in the polls by 20 points

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1692582192646434953

Corbyn was only leading the Tories by One point and that is despite being out of the spotlight since December 2019.

this is pre october 7th btw