United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed the main campaign "news" seems to be Starmer ruling out increasing CGT on people's houses - something that never had the slightest chance of happening anyway (and, equally, doesn't preclude them changing it elsewhere, even if Reeves presently says they have "no plans" to)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed the main campaign "news" seems to be Starmer ruling out increasing CGT on people's houses - something that never had the slightest chance of happening anyway (and, equally, doesn't preclude them changing it elsewhere, even if Reeves presently says they have "no plans" to)

A classic 'er... no? We won't be doing that. Why would we do that? What an odd thing to ask' moment really.

[Blair]

Why on earth would you put CGT on people selling their home?

[oldtimer]

I'm surprised it hasn't been commented that a former Prime Minister & beloved hero of the Red Wall hasn't really got involved; he's done a few identical videos from an office endorsing right wing allies of his, and his mail column but seeing as he were told he was very popular it's a surprise he isn't out campaigning, or even trying for a seat in Parliament!

Why should Boris be involved to save Sunak's party?

In the current Anti-Boris Conservative Party he can't even be selected in any seat.

If the Conservatives get decimated he ought to be able to return in any Labour held ex-safe Conservative seat, and become Leader-in-waiting.

Ditto if the Conservatives get replaced by Reform, he can join Reform and do the same.

If Boris does get involved in this election campaign it will be to back Reform. Would that even be surprising? Bet Farage has made the odd phone call to his old mate.......

It would be revenge served as a cold dish by Boris to his Tory enemies.

[TheTide]

A rather slow day on the campaign front, with the news being dominated by the Princess of Wales making her first public appearance (at the annual Trooping of the Colour) since her cancer diagnosis. Of course, weekends are usually slower and most people pay less attention to the news on them.

And even less so when there are major international football competitions on.  

[oldtimer]

A rather slow day on the campaign front, with the news being dominated by the Princess of Wales making her first public appearance (at the annual Trooping of the Colour) since her cancer diagnosis. Of course, weekends are usually slower and most people pay less attention to the news on them.

And even less so when there are major international football competitions on.  

Well to spice it up:
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

Along with Opinium and JL Partners, Savanta are usually the best for the Conservatives.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Logical]

New Survation MRP
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1802049409984745504
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

The 7 Reform seats are :
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk

https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

[LabourJersey]

New Survation MRP
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1802049409984745504
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

The 7 Reform seats are :
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk

https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

42,000 interviews is impressive!

And this appears to be a true best case scenario for Reform, and close to absolute worst case scenario for the Tories

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

New Survation MRP
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1802049409984745504
LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

The 7 Reform seats are :
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk

https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

Remarkable that the Conservatives get only 72 seats despite having 23.5% support, and Reform only 12.3%.

If the Tories were a few points lower and Reform a few points higher as in a lot of other polls we have seen recently, then this would be EVEN WORSE for the Tories in terms of seat count lol.

This is apparently what qualifies as a good poll for the Tories these days!!!

[Tintrlvr]

The MRP seems… poorly tuned for local effects. Reform third in Boston and Skegness? Labour winning Epsom and Ewell? The Exmouth result is clearly the result of being lazy about accounting for Claire Wright’s campaign last time. Also seems to disregard by-election results entirely, which is obviously a mistake.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

And this appears to be a true best case scenario for Reform, and close to absolute worst case scenario for the Tories

More like the opposite, at least in comparison to other recent polls. Compared to those, this is a high vote share for the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MRPs always look more impressive until you look at the individual constituency projections, which, and it is true in this case, are often really quite unintentionally amusing. Beyond some of the more obviously silly stuff, everything is always too flat.

[JimJamUK]

New Survation MRP

LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2
GRN 1

The 7 Reform seats are :
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk

https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-mrp-since-farages-return/

I find these constituencies a bit odd. Clacton and North West Norfolk make sense as heavily Conservative, heavily leave voting constituencies where Reform will do very well. The other 5 are harder to explain. Mid Leicestershire strikes me as the sort of seat that could go Reform if we get Conservative crossover, but not 1 of only 7. South Suffolk is only 54% leave so I can’t see it going Reform unless they actually power ahead of the Conservatives. Great Yarmouth is a very good area for Reform but on 40% nationally Labour should still be ahead of them. Exmouth and Exeter East is not prime Reform territory, I’m wondering if the leftish independent from last time is skewing their model. Finally, Ashfield has a strong independent (technically party) which may similarly be skewing the model, but even if it’s not then they will take a good chunk of the Reform vote and prevent a Reform victory.

Edit - Reform are not winning 6/7 of these on only 12% of the vote, absolutely not.

[YL]

I'm still not convinced that anyone other than YouGov has worked out how to do MRPs well. And I'm afraid that I'm particularly unconvinced by Survation's efforts.

[S019]

That MRP is honestly weird and just looking through a few Northern seats it looks like Reform is taking sizable votes off of Labour. For instance, in Great Grimsby Labour is at 39%, the Tories at 29% and Reform at 23%, Labour received 33% of the vote there in 2019 and I am not inclined to believe that tons of Tory->Labour switchers jumped to Reform.

[oldtimer]

The MRP seems… poorly tuned for local effects. Reform third in Boston and Skegness? Labour winning Epsom and Ewell? The Exmouth result is clearly the result of being lazy about accounting for Claire Wright’s campaign last time. Also seems to disregard by-election results entirely, which is obviously a mistake.

My list of likely Reform seats:

Clacton
Boston
Ashfield

Possible Reform seats:

Castle Point
South Holland
NE Cambridgeshire
NW Norfolk
Maldon
Louth
Basildon South
Sittingbourne
Barnsley South
Barnsley North
Bolsover
Rotherham
Mansfield
Rayleigh

Bellow that you get too many Midlands-Yorkshire seats to list, so if Reform get more than 17 it snowballs.

EDIT: I'm constantly adding seats to the list on the basis of Leave over 67% and a good UKIP 2015 presence (Bolsover added due to my suspicion that Skinner's local vote helped Labour's score).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Beyond some of the more obviously silly stuff, everything is always too flat.

Though oddly the opposite is somehow true of the Reform estimates, which are much less uniform than seems plausible based off everything we know. Peculiar, and suggests an error with the model.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, normal opinion polls for today are: Opinium Lab 40, Con 23, Ref 14, LDem 12, Green 7, SNP 2, ; Savanta Lab 46, Con 21, Ref 13, LDem 11, Green 5, SNP 2. Opinium, of course, is one of the firms that adjust and re-weight heavily, while Savanta is not (and can be wobbly). The overall picture remains familiar.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Seems like Reform's recent scandals have been the best news for the Tories the whole campaign?

[beesley]

Earlier I made a point about 'too many to things to go wrong at once' about the Tory losses - and Survation has all but one seat in Staffordshire going Labour, Tories losing all their seats in Norfolk (!) and Cornwall, all but two in Devon. Plus the anecdotal talk locally doesn't match up as being so bad for the Tories as what's been forecasted here. I'd be delighted to be proven wrong though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm still not convinced that anyone other than YouGov has worked out how to do MRPs well. And I'm afraid that I'm particularly unconvinced by Survation's efforts.

Just look at the pattern of Labour vote increases on 2019. Or, rather, the curious lack of a pattern. For me, I'm not even a fan of the YouGov ones: we remember those occasions when they've suggested surprising seats to fall that really did, but tend to memory hole those occasions when equally striking projections were wrong. Though if we think of them as an updated alternative to simple UNS estimates, perhaps we might all be more charitable.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

That MRP is honestly weird and just looking through a few Northern seats it looks like Reform is taking sizable votes off of Labour. For instance, in Great Grimsby Labour is at 39%, the Tories at 29% and Reform at 23%, Labour received 33% of the vote there in 2019 and I am not inclined to believe that tons of Tory->Labour switchers jumped to Reform.

I am not sure that is quite so implausible. Grimsby is very much the sort of traditionally WWC Labour areas which are analagous to places like Youngstown Ohio or West Virginia in the USA. And those were the epicenter of Trumpist gains in the US (despite being traditionally Democratic). I think we should perhaps expect some similarities between the sorts of demographic areas where Trump gained in the USA and the sort of areas where Reform will do well.

Great Grimsby was also 71.5% leave (with perhaps slightly different boundaries, which was the 10th highest leave percentage in the UK in 2016.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Beyond some of the more obviously silly stuff, everything is always too flat.

Though oddly the opposite is somehow true of the Reform estimates, which are much less uniform than seems plausible based off everything we know. Peculiar, and suggests an error with the model.

There are downloadable crosstabs here, so if there is a particular demographic that may be off and driving some of those trends, it may be detectable in that data.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/june_2024_mrp

https://assets.nationbuilder.com/b4b/pages/5841/attachments/original/1718474927/B4B_VI_MRP_20240614_%281%29.xlsx?1718474927

[Steve from Lambeth]

The 7 Reform seats are :
Ashfield
Clacton
Exmouth and Exeter East
Great Yarmouth
Mid Leicestershire
North West Norfolk
South Suffolk

How is Reform winning Exmouth? Isn't that the same Exmouth which Claire Wright, not particularly well-known for being a populist firebrand, almost won in 2019? Can we please not get MRP polls where all the lines of questioning look like this?

Which of the following candidates standing in the Klondikeshire constituency do you intend to vote for in the July 4th General Election?

John Connor (Conservative)
Harry Potter (Labour)
Vito Corleone (Liberal Democrat)
Emma Bovary (Green Party)
Humbert Humbert (Reform UK)
Carrie Bradshaw (Workers' Party of Britain)
Homer Simpson (Independent)