United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do we know where he claims he was in the Bishop Auckland constituency, because we have had no footage, no photos...

I’m going to guess somewhere south of the Tees rather than Coundon…

Edit - Google has a picture of him at Auckland Castle, so further out than I would have guessed but still not exactly tramping round a council estate.

So he just went to what is now a tourist destination? Spectacular.

[Aurelius2]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

[Lumine]

I get the distinct impression Holden saw Chris Grayling was retiring, and selflessly decided someone had to step in and fulfill the vital role of incompetence supremo.

[morgieb]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

In fairness I don't think 60+ seats is at all likely for the Lib Dems.

But I think the reason is that they'll probably win a few three-way (maybe even four-way depending on the seat) contests with percentages in the low 30's (maybe even high 20's), while making no impact in a lot of their non-target seats.

[Kalimantan]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

Would certainly a be a first for them to out perform their vote share. I guess the answer is extreme tactical 'get the Tories out' voting. They're the acceptable left wing party for much of the south, but barely feature in the labour- voting cities

[brucejoel99]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

An election in which large numbers of people are voting against an unpopular incumbent Tory government rather than for the Labour opposition is basically the Lib Dems' bread & butter, liable to lead to their national share of the vote being unmoored from their constituency results. In fact, Labour & the Lib Dems alike pretty much both do their best when the Tories are unpopular af & they're each a clear choice to take a Conservative candidate out by a self-directed, organized tactical voting campaign undertaken specifically against the Tories. If anything, it's a repeat-on-steroids of 1997, the prior anti-Tory election in which the Lib Dems' share of the vote didn't correlate very well with the number of seats they won, given that they actually won a reduced share of the vote relative to 1992 but gained a bunch of seats anyway (doubling their seat total) because Tory voter turnout collapsed & there was (perhaps wrongly assumed) peak Lab/Lib tactical voting.

This time around, they'll win about 10% less of the vote than in 1997 & likely still manage to win about the same number of seats, if not more, thanks to their vote being substantially even more efficient this time around as a result of the Tories likewise just utterly imploding in terms of their own efficiency & electoral resources being spread very thinly. Indeed, this year looks set to deliver the most efficient Lib(eral) vote since 1923, which is really saying something miraclely for those of us who remember 2015, but credit where it's due, 2015-19 taught Ed Davey to return to the Paddy Ashdown & Charles Kennedy way of being a Liberal Democrat & stop engaging in the fatal error of their entire 2010s as a decade, which was spreading their resources thin for the sake of chasing the mirage of acting like a prime-ministerial candidate, a costly strategy that hindsight of only ever produced disappointment & failure for the party from Nick Clegg to Jo Swinson. Right now, the party is capitalizing on this absolute perfect storm of a Tory wipeout just like Ashdown did in 1997, by hyper-concentrating resources on the places where they can win thanks to the demographics being in their favor &/or the party being locally strong enough to mobilize councilors &/or there isn't a huge traditional Labour vote: socially liberal, well-educated urban areas; market towns full of commuters where the town itself constitutes a high proportion of the constituency's population relative to the countryside; the South West of England.

The party is also very NIMBY locally, near- if not on par with the Greens, so that's been a good wedge for building more support too. Employing all of these strategies in tandem = peak efficiency = a non-0 chance of Leader of the Opposition Sir Ed Davey. For how much fun an election 2024 has been, depending on where the math ultimately lands, 2029 may be too.

[Torrain]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

It’s really the power of those local fiefdoms, where they’re the only challenger to the Tories, in a head-to-head race. If the Tories are <30%, then an efficient Lib Dem vote can evict them fairly easily in a number of seats.

Honestly, in some ways, you might find it easier to think of them as an SNP-style party, only rather than Scotland, it’s an archipelago of affluent suburban/rural enclaves, with no Labour organising or tradition. That’s not always been the case, Davey is running a far more targeted race than Swinson’s disastrous attempt to run a national campaign.

Because they won a bunch of councils in 2022, 2023 and 2024, the models are predicting a resurgence in those areas, where they’ve either been the winners or primary opposition in previous Westminster elections. We saw areas like Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath go from a narrow Tory majority, to a Lib Dem super-majority at the council level over the course of this parliament.

Having grown up in a Lib Dem area - they often work bloody hard too. The localist stuff isn’t just a stereotype. I knew who the Lib Dem councillor in my ward was before I was 10, because they’d turned up to every annual festival, saved a local library and negotiated a kids play park by that stage. When they ran for parliament, I ended up agreeing to spend a weekend posting leaflets for them all over town, even though I was actively working to join a different party - and I ended up voting quite enthusiastically for said-Lib Dem. That’s how they get you.

[RBH]

Adding another seat to the "Workers Party candidate with a description that mentions Gaza" list: Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North.

Where the Workers Party candidate is named James Giles and the Labour MP is Liam Byrne. LD is named Qasim Esak, Green is named Imran Khan, Tory is from Hertsmere, RefUK is from Rugby.

Out of the 9 Birmingham constituencies, WPGB has candidates in 3 (BHH & SN, Yardley, and Sutton Coldfield). Guess among yourselves about if they're a step behind in Birmingham compared to other areas where they could win some votes, or if viable candidates already exist to win votes on Gaza outside of the Galloway fold.

Also, I'd guess the whole I/P thing is still gonna be a bit of an issue for some voters even if the power of optimism wins out and there's a ceasefire before July 4th.

[Pericles]

The LibDem seat share tends to be highly correlated with the Tory vote share. Most LibDem target seats, for many years, have been where they are the main competition against the Tories. Labour vs LibDem contests are rare, and the coalition made them rarer. In 2019, even though the LibDem vote increased, it was not able to translate into seat wins when the Tory vote was so high at 45%. The 1997 gains came about because the Tory vote crashed. The Conservative vote now is likely to be the lowest in the party's history. While Labour may leapfrog them in some seats, in a seat where the LibDems were already on 30-40% would flip anyway even if there was no tactical voting.

Going by a pure uniform swing, if the LibDem vote stays stagnant while the Tory vote slumps by 20%, that's a 10% swing. That is 24 gains from the Conservatives, including Jeremy Hunt's seat, from the notional 8 seats. As this is generous to the Tories, these numbers aren't predictive but show what the dynamic is.

[Kalimantan]

The LibDem vote in the South and SouthWest, and probably most of their seats,  is from two kinds of people - disaffected Tories who won't switch to Labour, and  Labour- leaning voters who know Labour can't win the seat and tactically vote LibDem. I'm one of those. You combine these voters and the seat will flip.

Therfore for the LibDems to hold these seats in future elections requires both the Tories to stay unpopular AND for the LibDems to stay on the centre left side of the political debate. It basically requires them to be an inoffensive third party

The coalition killed the LibDems in 2015 because the Labour voters who lent them their votes were let down by them joining the Tories in government (and notably supporting tuition fee rises). This time around,  if they do end up the Opposition, they will either attack Labour from the right,  losing their Labour voters, or from the left,  losing their Tory voters. Will be a difficult one for them to manage,  even if they do it very competently (like they were when in coalition)

[Kalimantan]

I really do recommend that everyone reading this thread watches the above video. It is very short and... highly memorable.

The sightly longer version is even more remarkable!

https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1799891590342758723

[YL]

Adding another seat to the "Workers Party candidate with a description that mentions Gaza" list: Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North.

Where the Workers Party candidate is named James Giles and the Labour MP is Liam Byrne. LD is named Qasim Esak, Green is named Imran Khan, Tory is from Hertsmere, RefUK is from Rugby.

Ah, James Giles and his curious double life in the Workers Party and the Kingston Independent Residents Group. He has actually seconded the latter party's candidate in Kingston & Surbiton (she is his grandmother, to be fair) in spite of the fact that the party he is standing for also have a candidate there.

[adma]

What's behind the astonishing vote efficiency of the LibDems in seat projections? I know that they've historically been good at building local fiefdoms by campaigning and delivering strongly on issues of local importance, but it just seems insane that a party (that isn't a national party like the SNP) polling at 10-11% could very plausibly get more than 10-11% of seats.

It’s really the power of those local fiefdoms, where they’re the only challenger to the Tories, in a head-to-head race. If the Tories are <30%, then an efficient Lib Dem vote can evict them fairly easily in a number of seats.

Honestly, in some ways, you might find it easier to think of them as an SNP-style party, only rather than Scotland, it’s an archipelago of affluent suburban/rural enclaves, with no Labour organising or tradition. That’s not always been the case, Davey is running a far more targeted race than Swinson’s disastrous attempt to run a national campaign.

Because they won a bunch of councils in 2022, 2023 and 2024, the models are predicting a resurgence in those areas, where they’ve either been the winners or primary opposition in previous Westminster elections. We saw areas like Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath go from a narrow Tory majority, to a Lib Dem super-majority at the council level over the course of this parliament.

Having grown up in a Lib Dem area - they often work bloody hard too. The localist stuff isn’t just a stereotype. I knew who the Lib Dem councillor in my ward was before I was 10, because they’d turned up to every annual festival, saved a local library and negotiated a kids play park by that stage. When they ran for parliament, I ended up agreeing to spend a weekend posting leaflets for them all over town, even though I was actively working to join a different party - and I ended up voting quite enthusiastically for said-Lib Dem. That’s how they get you.

It would really be a telling paradigm shift for us to go from the Tories as the "Surrey party" in 1997 to the Lib Dems as the "Surrey party" in 2024.  (And very much of a piece w/similar patterns elsewhere: Romney/Clinton in the US, former rich Conservative strongholds in places like Toronto and Vancouver now being reliably Liberal, etc)

[Blair]

The hilarious sub plot about the former honourable member for Durham is that he was picked to be party chair purely because he was a Sunak backer and a former Tory party staffer- he was partly the frontman behind the currygate Durham plot against Keir (remember that success?) and then did a rather bland 12 months as a junior transport minister, before getting this gig.

It is a common mistake in British politics to promote former staffers to positions just because they know how to say get a press release into the Telegraph.

Do you think the Conservative party chairs in the 1990s or 2000s would have allowed this mess to happen while they ran around looking for a safe seat? We use to be a proper country.

[Blair]

Oh Dear

https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1800086950172578059

[EastAnglianLefty]

The hilarious sub plot about the former honourable member for Durham is that he was picked to be party chair purely because he was a Sunak backer and a former Tory party staffer- he was partly the frontman behind the currygate Durham plot against Keir (remember that success?) and then did a rather bland 12 months as a junior transport minister, before getting this gig.

It is a common mistake in British politics to promote former staffers to positions just because they know how to say get a press release into the Telegraph.

Do you think the Conservative party chairs in the 1990s or 2000s would have allowed this mess to happen while they ran around looking for a safe seat? We use to be a proper country.

Brian Mawhinney did move to a safer seat in 1997, but most of that was from his former seat.

[Torrain]

Ross broke his deal with the party, to give up on Westminster and go full-time at Holyrood, which seemed liable to prompt a revolt eventually - that it came this quickly though was a surprise.

Not sure if this is them extracting their pound of flesh from him, or if someone (somehow) thinks this is a good way to mitigate damage ahead of tomorrow, when the last Scottish leaders debate will air on the BBC.

But it’s been handled as badly as the rest of this mess.

[beesley]

Highlights from the Lib Dem manifesto:

• 'Free personal care' and an increase in carers allowance.
• Many policies aimed at improving NHS healthcare, including: the 'right' to see a GP within seven days; an ending of 'dental deserts'; increased funding for cancer treatment with the 'guarantee' of a two month maximum waitlist to begin treatment.
• Similarly, efforts to improve mental healthcare, including a trained mental health professional in every school. Also on education, £5000 grants for all adults to spend on training, and aim to expand free school meals to all primary-age children when public finances allow.
• Avoid tax rises for individuals, but raise money through various specific corporation taxes: a windfall tax on oil and gas giants, raising the digital services tax, and reversing cuts to 'big banks' taxes'.
• An expansion of neighbourhood policing including a guarantee that all burglaries are attended by the police.
• Various policies aimed at achieving net-zero, including a ten-year programme to retrofit existing homes with free insulation, and restoring the 2030 zero-emission vehicles requirement. Also, a freeze in rail fares.
• Various policies to expand rights including reforming the gender recognition process, with the aim of making it easier.
• Support international institutions such as NATO and the UN, return international development spending to 0.7% of GDP, and advocate for an immediate bilateral ceasefire and two-state solution in Israel/Palestine. Eventually, seek to rejoin the European Single Market.
• Introduce a proportional electoral system for Westminster elections, reform the House of Lords to give it a democratic mandate, scrap the voter ID system and extend the franchise to 16 and 17 yos.

https://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto for those interested - many other policies I've neglected to mention; no less ambitious but not 'headline'.

[WD]

Starmer campaigning in Nuneaton, Sunak in Horsham today. I think that tells you all you need to know about the state of things.

[DL]

What exactly is the role of a “party chair” in British politics? I’m trying to think of the equivalent in Canada and all I can think of is how each party has a national director who is the CEO of the party itself…and that person is never an MP. They are a party bureaucrat

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly is the role of a “party chair” in British politics? I’m trying to think of the equivalent in Canada and all I can think of is how each party has a national director who is the CEO of the party itself…and that person is never an MP. They are a party bureaucrat.

That depends on the party in question. In the case of the Conservative Party, the Party Chair is responsible for party administration and runs the Conservative Campaign Headquarters (which those of us over a certain age will better remember as the Conservative Central Office) which is where the party's central bureaucracy is based. This is why Holden's chicken-run is controversial.

In the case of the Labour Party, the post is really just a title that Blair made up to be given to a Minister Without Portfolio in the Cabinet and which has been kept out of habit and because it sounds important. Usually the person given it has another post and it tends to indicate that the person has been given a degree of responsibility of the coordination of election campaigns. Meanwhile, the Party machine is run by a full-time employee with an entirely different title - the General Secretary - and there is also the Chair of the National Executive Committee.

[DL]

Well then I do not understand why it’s considered so essential for Holden, the Tory party chair, to be an MP. It sounds like a full time job that should be done by a party bureaucrat who is not tied down having to represent a constituency

[Cassius]

Well then I do not understand why it’s considered so essential for Holden, the Tory party chair, to be an MP. It sounds like a full time job that should be done by a party bureaucrat who is not tied down having to represent a constituency

Tradition mostly, although the party has had non-MPs as chairmen in the recent past such as Ben Elliott, a businessman who was effectively Boris Johnson’s chief bagman, and Lord Feldman (ditto but for Cameron).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well then I do not understand why it’s considered so essential for Holden, the Tory party chair, to be an MP. It sounds like a full time job that should be done by a party bureaucrat who is not tied down having to represent a constituency

There is no need at all: their most significant Chairman, Lord Woolton, was, well, a member of the Lords. Some have been neither an MP nor a Peer.

[Samof94]

Would love to meet some Labour 2019/Tory 2024 voters. Who even are they? Accelerationists? Mark Latham imitators? Idiots? Leicester East?

In no particular order:
People rushing through the poll clicking anything
People who genuinely changed their political views eg; culture wars, radicalised by COVID etc
Ethnic minorities (mainly Hindus) who liked Corbyn and/or like Sunak
Random people with extremely weird/niche/non-existent political views eg; I somehow know a 2019 Corbyn voter who literally voted for Trump for fear Biden would be a Trojan horse for Venezuelan socialism.

Yeah, the political right has sold itself as protecting "freedom" in a Covid context.