United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[MABA 2020]

The Sun has now endorsed Labour.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

I mean it's really we back Labour cos we wanna back the winners isn't it?

[Joe Republic]

The Sun has now endorsed Labour.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

It's my understanding that while The Sun is a very Conservative paper, they ostensibly back Labour if their victory is a foregone conclusion, so as to maintain the facade that they are in tune with the people, blah blah etc.

Edit: Or see above.

[Zinneke]

The Sun has now endorsed Labour.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

I mean it's really we back Labour cos we wanna back the winners isn't it?

I mean isn't it also the kind of reluctant Labour vote that will push them to a huge majority? Most people probably still hold some right-wing views on immigration or even the economy but just want to have a stab at Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

I know there are usual caveats about individual results in the MRPs, but is there any reason to not expect the Luciana Berger vote in Finchley to largely return to Labour? Labour also got 44% here in 2017, this should not really be a seat that they’re struggling to win if the Tories are around 100 seats. Is the model just off in that seat or are there local factors that may be at play?

That's a case of the models being off, yes. Same with the other two Barnet seats to some degree.

[MABA 2020]

The Sun has now endorsed Labour.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

I mean it's really we back Labour cos we wanna back the winners isn't it?

I mean isn't it also the kind of reluctant Labour vote that will push them to a huge majority? Most people probably still hold some right-wing views on immigration or even the economy but just want to have a stab at Labour.

Thats probably true, though anecdotally the older, mildly right wing people in my life have the attitude of "they're all as bad as each other" and "Labour wouldn't have done any different" and basically aren't voting this time.

[YL]

I should know this already, but I know the Speaker who is Labour doesn't count in the election total. So, Labour won 202 seats in 2019 and not 203, similarly when Bercow, the Conservative won in 2015 and 2017.

Does the Speaker run unopposed in their riding?

Not unopposed but by convention the major parties don't put up candidates against the Speaker.

Interestingly this convention is not quite as longstanding as might be thought. Both Labour and the SDP/Liberal Alliance stood against Bernard Weatherill in 1987, and Labour and the Liberals likewise stood against Selwyn Lloyd in both 1974 elections; in fact John Bercow was the first ex-Conservative Speaker not to get Labour opposition since 1955.

Also the SNP stood against Michael Martin and Plaid against George Thomas, and the Greens are standing against Hoyle this time. Farage stood for UKIP against Bercow in 2010, but Reform aren't contesting Chorley. The Tories were threatening to stand against Bercow in 2019 before he announced his retirement.

[Torrain]

I know there are usual caveats about individual results in the MRPs, but is there any reason to not expect the Luciana Berger vote in Finchley to largely return to Labour? Labour also got 44% here in 2017, this should not really be a seat that they’re struggling to win if the Tories are around 100 seats. Is the model just off in that seat or are there local factors that may be at play?

Yeah, Finchley feels like it’s going to snap back towards Labour hard enough to give you whiplash. Between Berger’s candidacy and Corbyn, 2019 was a perfect storm destined to annihilate Labour’s vote.

2019 has a number of pretty anomalous races (see also, high-profile Lib Dem defectors in Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington, or the pro-SNP, pro-EU tactical vote that halved Labour’s share in a number of Scottish seats versus 2017). Trying to build a model that weighs by the past few cycles is going to struggle to know how to handle a number of those races.

[Torrain]

Also the SNP stood against Michael Martin and Plaid against George Thomas, and the Greens are standing against Hoyle this time.

Don’t have them to hand, but I believe there are clauses in the party constitutions requiring the SNP (and possibly Plaid too) to run everywhere, within their respective devolved nation.

If Pete Wishart’s campaign to become Speaker had gone ahead, I do wonder whether they might have created a carve-out to that rule.

[afleitch]

The MRP's are also herding. At least those published with data ending today/yesterday. Survation is the outlier

Ranges are;

Labour 430-442 (Survation 484)
Conservative 102-126 (Survation 64)
Lib Dem 51-72 (Survation 61)
SNP 15-18 (Survation 10)
Reform 1-3 (Survation 7)

[JimJamUK]

I know there are usual caveats about individual results in the MRPs, but is there any reason to not expect the Luciana Berger vote in Finchley to largely return to Labour? Labour also got 44% here in 2017, this should not really be a seat that they’re struggling to win if the Tories are around 100 seats. Is the model just off in that seat or are there local factors that may be at play?

The swing to Berger won't have just been from Labour, but it's clearly the sort of vote that is moving wholesale to Labour this year and I can't see how they lose the constituency when they're this far ahead. Despite the 2019 result, it was already Labour's best Barnet constituency in the 2022 local elections and the Lib Dem's didn't win a single councillor.

[bore]

Strong closing argument from the Chancellor of the Exchequer:


https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1808543366725898350

[JimJamUK]

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

I mean it's really we back Labour cos we wanna back the winners isn't it?

I mean isn't it also the kind of reluctant Labour vote that will push them to a huge majority? Most people probably still hold some right-wing views on immigration or even the economy but just want to have a stab at Labour.

Polling suggests Labour are winning many voters with a few more right wing/socially conservative views, but not people who are right wing on everything. Such people, insofar as they are abandoning the Tories, are the people who more recently abandoned them and are going Reform.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Sun has now endorsed Labour.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/

That has got to be one of the most right wing, half hearted endorsements I’ve ever seen. Essentially Sunak is pretty good, we wish he was even more right wing, but we back Labour because change.

Its hilarious in many ways, but nonetheless a front page that Labour won't mind at all tomorrow.

[Chaos with Keir Starmer]

The MRP's are also herding. At least those published with data ending today/yesterday. Survation is the outlier

Ranges are;

Labour 430-442 (Survation 484)
Conservative 102-126 (Survation 64)
Lib Dem 51-72 (Survation 61)
SNP 15-18 (Survation 10)
Reform 1-3 (Survation 7)

Damn, that’s kinda sad that even the MRPs are herding lol

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

I am always here for the public to devour a right wing party.

[Joe Republic]

I am always here for the public to devour a right wing party.

This pretty much sums up why I have been following this election so closely.  The current situation in my own country, with the total lack of punishment inflicted against the evil right wing that they so greatly deserve, is too depressing.

[beesley]

THE FINAL UPDATE!

Sunak visited Chelsea and Fulham yesterday, and Romsey and Southampton North (I'm touched) today.
Starmer visited Redditch, Caerfyrddin and East Kilbride today.
Davey visited St Ives yesterday, and Chippenham, and Harpenden today.



And here are the final stats - I think!

I hope everyone has enjoyed this series of posts. It may have been fruitless but I was happy to do it.

[Mike88]

24 hours until we hear those well known words: "As Big Ben strikes ten, the polls will close and our exit poll says..."

[MABA 2020]

24 hours until we hear those well known words: "As Big Ben strikes ten, the polls will close and our exit polls says..."

...it's a Labour landslide

[Logical]

I have made a similar checklist on a spreadsheet.
https://twitter.com/JackKnightxx/status/1808424275109466425

[Joe Republic]

https://www.electionbingo.co.uk/

[Sorenroy]

This compares the various MRPs and prediction sites:
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

I thought it would be interesting to get a sense of the universe of possible outcomes for the election based on where the majority of the 13 predictions agree and the range of agreement (from unanimous to just one prediction showing the seat).

Election Universe:
Labour — 452 (353-545)
Conservative — 92 (11-198)
Liberal Democrats — 61 (27-83)
SNP — 16 (5-38)
Plaid Cymru — 3 (2-4)
Reform — 1 (0-17)
Green — 1 (0-5)
Unclear — 5

Just as a note for how to read this: the range is between total agreement and any single prediction. So, no full prediction has Labor winning 545 seats, that's just the number of seats where at least one prediction shows a Labor win.

[Thomas D]

https://www.electionbingo.co.uk/

Under a Labour Government the UK will be able to advance to having 5x5 Bingo cards.

[Joe Republic]

https://www.electionbingo.co.uk/

Under a Labour Government the UK will be able to advance to having 5x5 Bingo cards.

Five-column bingo cards were temporarily removed under the austerity measures implemented under the Coalition, and made permanent during the Brexit negotiations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Various final offerings not already noted: Survation Lab 38, Con 20, Ref 17, LDem 12, Greens 7, SNP 3; Savanta Lab 39, Con 20, Ref 17, LDem 10, Greens 5, SNP 2; We Think Lab 41, Con 23, Ref 15, LDem 11, Greens 7, SNP 2; Norstat Lab 37, Con 24, Ref 16, LDem 11, Greens 6, SNP 4, Opinium Lab 41, Con 21, Ref 17, LDem 11, Greens 7, SNP 2, Deltapoll Lab 39, Con 22, Ref 17, LDem 10, Greens 7, SNP 2; Whitestone Insight Lab 38, Con 21, Ref 18, LDem 10, Greens 7, SNP 3; BMG Lab 39, Con 22, Ref 16, LDem 10, Greens 6, SNP 3, Lord Ashcroft Lab 38, Con 19, Ref 18, LDem 11, Greens 8, SNP 3.

There will be a few more.

Additionally, the vote shares as projected by the various MRPs out today: YouGov Lab 39, Con 22, Ref 15, LDem 12, Greens 7, SNP 3; More in Common Lab 39, Con 23, LDem 14, Ref 13, Greens 6, SNP 2; Focaldata Lab 40, Con 23, Ref 16, LDem 12, Greens 5, SNP 3.