United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[xelas81]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1804199833890087171

Also surprising that Stonehenge vandalism is low.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Two polls out today thus far: We Think Lab 43, Con 22, Ref 13, LDem 8, Green 7, SNP 3; Whitestone Insight Lab 39, Ref 20, Con 19, LDem 12, Green 6, SNP 3.

The difference between the Reform scores there are... erm... stark.

I have noticed for at least the past week or so, there have seem to be 2 different clusters of polls in general. One cluster with Reform roughly even or at this point slightly ahead of the Conservatives, and another cluster with an 8-10 point lead or so for the Conservatives over Reform, with reform way back in the low teens or so.

These presumably arise from methodological differences, but what specific difference? Is it that the high-reform cluster is picking up too many higher info voters, or is it a result of the low-reform cluster pushing a lot of 2019 Conservative voters who are undecided back to the Conservatives? Or something else?

[Sestak]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1804199833890087171

Am curious whether respondents were prompted with anything for this question. If not, very possible that a lot of people who were following the Euros wouldn't really count it as "news"; I probably wouldn't count a sporting event I was closely following as news unless there was some specific news item that broke separately from just the competition itself.

[beesley]

These presumably arise from methodological differences, but what specific difference? Is it that the high-reform cluster is picking up too many higher info voters, or is it a result of the low-reform cluster pushing a lot of 2019 Conservative voters who are undecided back to the Conservatives? Or something else?

Amongst other things the two posters who use random probability sampling (Verian and Ipsos) had two of the lowest Reform shares of 12/13%. Online panels have tended to have Reform at the higher mark but I don't want to say anything that I might oversimplify.

[oldtimer]

Two polls out today thus far: We Think Lab 43, Con 22, Ref 13, LDem 8, Green 7, SNP 3; Whitestone Insight Lab 39, Ref 20, Con 19, LDem 12, Green 6, SNP 3.

The difference between the Reform scores there are... erm... stark.

I have noticed for at least the past week or so, there have seem to be 2 different clusters of polls in general. One cluster with Reform roughly even or at this point slightly ahead of the Conservatives, and another cluster with an 8-10 point lead or so for the Conservatives over Reform, with reform way back in the low teens or so.

These presumably arise from methodological differences, but what specific difference? Is it that the high-reform cluster is picking up too many higher info voters, or is it a result of the low-reform cluster pushing a lot of 2019 Conservative voters who are undecided back to the Conservatives? Or something else?

I'm reposting this:

EASY GRAPH OF POLLSTER METHODS

https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1795415747298197725

[oldtimer]

Much better canvassing this week - in what should have been more Tory parts of the constituency!

The Conservative “stop the landslide” attack line was already backfiring there, as someone was voting against them on the basis that only the LDs could do such a thing.

The betting was mentioned on the doorstep, too.

The broad picture from what I gather looks similar.

I picked up that Labour and the LD are going for 25k Tory majority seats, basically the last ones left.

[Tintrlvr]

It’s basically a leftover constituency covering the most rural areas of Mid Suffolk along with a bit of rural South Norfolk and East Suffolk. Im half surprised they didn’t call it ‘Mid East Anglia’ or something.

Yes Diss is the most populous settlement in the Waveney Valley constituency.

Funnily enough I was wondering which seats had the 'least populous' largest settlement. For the UK as a whole it should be Na h-Eileanan an Iar, with Stornoway's sub-5k figure. For England, Thirsk and Malton's largest settlement is Norton-on-Derwent with just under 8k. But should you consider Malton and Norton functionally one built up area, then the next smallest I found is Tenterden in the new very rural Weald of Kent seat, just over 8k. In Wales and Northern Ireland, the seats appear to be Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe (Ystradgynlais) and South Down (Downpatrick) respectively.

Open to corrections of all kinds!

Central Devon (Crediton I think) and Mid Bucks (Princes Risborough) are close rivals to Weald of Kent here. The question of where the Labour vote in the former comes from arises again.

Not coincidentally, Electoral Calculus thinks Weald of Kent is the safest Tory seat in almost all scenarios.

[Blair]

I've heard people say that Starmer is actually to the left of Blair and even Brown - in what way? What would be an example of a policy stance that Starmer takes that is significantly more leftwing than anything Blair would have stood for?

Starmer is proposing reforms to the laws around trade unions that Blair couldn’t do and wouldn’t do now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1804199833890087171

Also surprising that Stonehenge vandalism is low.

Perhaps the general election is sucking up the oxygen.

[oldtimer]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1804199833890087171

Also surprising that Stonehenge vandalism is low.

Perhaps the general election is sucking up the oxygen.

The European Soccer tournament is sucking oxygen.

England losing to Iceland for example, or the tie against Denmark.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1804199833890087171

Also surprising that Stonehenge vandalism is low.

Perhaps the general election is sucking up the oxygen.

The European Soccer tournament is sucking oxygen.

England losing to Iceland for example, or the tie against Denmark.

I could also see that.

[oldtimer]

It’s basically a leftover constituency covering the most rural areas of Mid Suffolk along with a bit of rural South Norfolk and East Suffolk. Im half surprised they didn’t call it ‘Mid East Anglia’ or something.

Yes Diss is the most populous settlement in the Waveney Valley constituency.

Funnily enough I was wondering which seats had the 'least populous' largest settlement. For the UK as a whole it should be Na h-Eileanan an Iar, with Stornoway's sub-5k figure. For England, Thirsk and Malton's largest settlement is Norton-on-Derwent with just under 8k. But should you consider Malton and Norton functionally one built up area, then the next smallest I found is Tenterden in the new very rural Weald of Kent seat, just over 8k. In Wales and Northern Ireland, the seats appear to be Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe (Ystradgynlais) and South Down (Downpatrick) respectively.

Open to corrections of all kinds!

Central Devon (Crediton I think) and Mid Bucks (Princes Risborough) are close rivals to Weald of Kent here. The question of where the Labour vote in the former comes from arises again.

Not coincidentally, Electoral Calculus thinks Weald of Kent is the safest Tory seat in almost all scenarios.

Speaking of what's going on in safe Tory seats:

https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1804178802475700417

South Holland is one of the seats that ought to go Reform.

[Torrain]

Weird thing from the Scottish side of the election. Whenever Swinney is interviewed now, by ITV, the BBC etc, he gets tangled up on the defacto-referendum policy he inherited. He'll affirm that party policy is that a majority of Scottish seats, 29 MPs, is sufficient to trigger independence negotiations (lol).

Then the interviewer moves onto the natural follow-up: if the SNP dip below 29 seats, surely that constitutes a "No" vote, in favour of the Union? At which point, Swinney gets flustered, and goes on a tangent about how the 2021 Holyrood election is the settled will of the Scottish people, and demands a referendum on those terms.

This has happened at least 2-3 times now, and he still doesn't have a clear line that doesn't end up sounding like "heads I win, tails you lose". It's all a bit Johnsonian - "cakeism" seems to be official ScotGov policy.

[Joe Republic]

Weird thing from the Scottish side of the election. Whenever Swinney is interviewed now, by ITV, the BBC etc, he gets tangled up on the defacto-referendum policy he inherited. He'll affirm that party policy is that a majority of Scottish seats, 29 MPs, is sufficient to trigger independence negotiations (lol).

Then the interviewer moves onto the natural follow-up: if the SNP dip below 29 seats, surely that constitutes a "No" vote, in favour of the Union? At which point, Swinney gets flustered, and goes on a tangent about how the 2021 Holyrood election is the settled will of the Scottish people, and demands a referendum on those terms.

This has happened at least 2-3 times now, and he still doesn't have a clear line that doesn't end up sounding like "heads I win, tails you lose". It's all a bit Johnsonian - "cakeism" seems to be official ScotGov policy.

When the SNP peaked in 2015, they won almost exactly half of the popular vote in Scotland (49.97% to be exact), and 56 of 59 seats (95%).

So if they win only 29 seats this time, let's say, then what do we estimate their overall popular vote % to be?  And unless it's miraculously and mysteriously more than their 2015 vote count, then what's the justification for this being a de facto referendum victory?  None of this makes any sense.

[Liminal Trans Girl]

https://x.com/nickisafraud/status/1804123080694075857

HAHAHAHAHA

[GoTfan]

Rory Stewart has made this point elsewhere. His fear is that if a Labour government fails to deliver meaningful change, then that will only end up empowering Reform. We are seeing a similar phenomenon play out in France right now, and to a lesser extent, here in Australia.

Starmer will end up with a decent mandate to say the least, and I hope does more than small-target stuff because otherwise, we could end up with PM Farage.

The elephant in the room is obviously Brexit.

The reason why the British economy has been doing worse than the rest of Europe is Brexit, which is the underlying reason for general voter discontent, and the obvious way to improve it is to reverse (at the least cautiously and gradually) Brexit.

However, moving towards this would cut against earlier statements Starmer had to make against rejoining the EU or single market which he pretty much had to make for obvious political reasons.

But they have started making noises:

Labour signals closer UK-EU trade ties as Sunak returns to campaign trail

Moving in this direction will obviously pour kerosene on the Farage fire.

But not doing this means the economy is probably not going to get better quickly, in which case it probably won't take long for Starmer's approval ratings to drop into Sunak territory.

Wouldn't an easy way to sell this be to say "We're not rejoining the EU; that's gone and done with. However, being in the Single Market lessens trade costs, which makes your food shop cheaper and gives you more money in your pocket"?

[Torrain]

When the SNP peaked in 2015, they won almost exactly half of the popular vote in Scotland (49.97% to be exact), and 56 of 59 seats (95%).

So if they win only 29 seats this time, let's say, then what do we estimate their overall popular vote % to be?  And unless it's miraculously and mysteriously more than their 2015 vote count, then what's the justification for this being a de facto referendum victory?  None of this makes any sense.

SNP would be around 37% to win a majority of seats.

The problem is, Sturgeon first floated the defacto referendum idea (with a bar of 50% of the popular vote) when that was still a plausible prospect. Once the promise was made, it was hard to drop it without triggering some kickback from the fundamentalist wing of the party, who'd essentially bounced her into it in the first place.

Once she was gone, and the SNP's polling declined, Humza Yousaf tried to lower the bar, from 50% of the vote, to a majority of seats, to a plurality of seats, so a "win" was still possible. He never really found a way to present that lowered bar plausibly - I'd assumed they'd have a slightly smoother framing at this point, or Swinney would have taken a more pragmatic line.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1804178802475700417?t=sQ6IyqPbSPY-yp-Jy...

Amazing vox pops, especially the guy with the "Milf Hunter" scooter.

[Harlow]

Perhaps this is a result of the UK having more easily navigable town centers that aren't congested with cars, but I've seen way more mobility scooters in each of these vox pops than I see here in the US.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/EoghanHeriot/status/1804195537534468289https://twitter.com/liveraldemocrat/status/1804205760517411151

[morgieb]

So it's not completely out of the question the Tories finish 5th? Wowee.

Anyone trying to play a drinking game probably needs to preempt an ambulance.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

So it's not completely out of the question the Tories finish 5th? Wowee.

Anyone trying to play a drinking game probably needs to preempt an ambulance.

Like at this point, the safest drinking game to play might be take a drink whenever the Tories win a seat.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/EoghanHeriot/status/1804195537534468289https://twitter.com/liveraldemocrat/status/1804205760517411151

Who would Sevenoaks even vote for? Tunbridge Wells being lost to the Lib Dems is obvious to anyone who is paying attention, but the LDs should not be able to win Sevenoaks. Maybe Reform?

[YL]

Who would Sevenoaks even vote for? Tunbridge Wells being lost to the Lib Dems is obvious to anyone who is paying attention, but the LDs should not be able to win Sevenoaks. Maybe Reform?

Lib Dems are giving it a go apparently. If the right-wing vote is split fairly evenly between the Tories and Reform then they could get it on quite a low vote share. (Or it could go Reform.)

[beesley]

But also the unprecedented nature of some of these Tory results could easily make Tory canvassers feel as if the world is ending on them 1, without being dramatically different than what polls are suggesting. After all many of these models have the Tories holding seats with a decline in their vote share of ≥25%.