Why are Democrats Polling so well ? (user search)
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June 26, 2024, 04:33:27 AM
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  Why are Democrats Polling so well ? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why are Democrats Polling so well ?  (Read 1359 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: May 26, 2024, 11:17:51 AM »

This is kind of a fallacy.

Senate dems on average are only polling about ~2% or so better than Biden vote-share wise.

Republican senate candidates are just underpolling Trump so badly that it makes it look like they're outperforming Biden by so much more.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2024, 08:43:49 AM »

This is kind of a fallacy.

Senate dems on average are only polling about ~2% or so better than Biden vote-share wise.

Republican senate candidates are just underpolling Trump so badly that it makes it look like they're outperforming Biden by so much more.

2% is a big difference vote share wise. 4 points of margin even if all the undecideds went to the GOP candidate, which is unlikely. Trump is unlikely to win any swing state by that much more than 4 points. Odds are he wins none by that much. If Trump were to get the 312 EV map and Casey, Baldwin, Gallego, and Rosen, and Slotkin won by getting 2% more of the vote than Biden, that would be perhaps the defining phenomenon of the election.

Right now - 5 months before the election with many undecideds - no it's not.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2024, 09:31:08 AM »

In most focus groups with persuadable/swing voters, independents, and even soft partisans, people aren't able to articulate why they dislike Biden and the reasons for their disapproval of him often boil down to one-word answers and broad vagarities. This dynamic doesn't exist with virtually any down-ballot Democrat save for a few particularly polarizing ones and is unlike what we saw in the Trump, Obama, and even Bush years where people were able to give a laundry list of the President's offenses without even having to sit and think about it first.

This obviously isn't true of Republicans who dislike Biden because he's a Democrat, or the corner of the Democratic base that has issues with him from the left (right now manifested through Gaza). But it's the primary reason why down-ballot Dems are much more comfortable in their positioning right now than Biden is.

This dynamic tells me that this kind of lines up with what we see with the 'somewhat disapprovers' situation - There may be quite a lot of people who are not huge fans of Biden, but there's a good chunk of that disapproval that is relatively soft, and that seems like something he can work with.

It also just speaks to the bigger issue of a chunk of people who dislike Biden for unknown reasons, just like ~vibes~ or they feel it's ~cool~ to dislike him or something. I find IRL that a lot of is more ambivalence than anything (don't love him, don't hate him, it's just kind of meh) which again is much more workable than with the passionate hatred that Trump, Obama, etc elicited from some
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