French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[jaichind]

It seems Macron's strategy is

a) Push up the rhetoric so turnout is high which means as many as possible ENS candidates make it into the second round
b) Go all out in RN-LFI+-ENS second-round races but pull out in some races where non-LFI+NFP are in the fray in the second round in hopes of splitting the NFP between LFI+ and non-NFI+ voting blocs.  In other words, try to achieve between the two rounds what Marcon wanted when he called the election: An alliance between ENS and the non-LFI+ Center-Left.

[Storr]

"Marine Le Pen party’s security adviser is an alleged Russian agent"

"Ms Volokhova became a French citizen in 2020 despite a leaked report from the DGSI, France’s domestic intelligence service, that identified her as a suspected “agent of influence” working for Vladimir Putin’s Russia."

https://archive.ph/2024.06.27-100934/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/26/marine-le-pen-russian-dual-national-exmodel-party-adviser/#selection-2775.4-2775.70

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Marine Le Pen party’s security adviser is an alleged Russian agent"

"Ms Volokhova became a French citizen in 2020 despite a leaked report from the DGSI, France’s domestic intelligence service, that identified her as a suspected “agent of influence” working for Vladimir Putin’s Russia."

https://archive.ph/2024.06.27-100934/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/26/marine-le-pen-russian-dual-national-exmodel-party-adviser/#selection-2775.4-2775.70

It came up in Tuesday's debate because RN's program includes banning binationals from holding public offices in national security related areas, on the presumption they might be foreign agents. Clearly Bardella is deeply concerned about the subject

[Logical]

Over 410 thousand French expat voters voted through the internet. This is already higher than total turnout in 2022.
https://twitter.com/FR_Consulaire/status/1806273772602740848

[DL]

It seems Macron's strategy is

a) Push up the rhetoric so turnout is high which means as many as possible ENS candidates make it into the second round
b) Go all out in RN-LFI+-ENS second-round races but pull out in some races where non-LFI+NFP are in the fray in the second round in hopes of splitting the NFP between LFI+ and non-NFI+ voting blocs.  In other words, try to achieve between the two rounds what Marcon wanted when he called the election: An alliance between ENS and the non-LFI+ Center-Left.

Does anyone think there will be ANY races where the second round run-off is between an LFI candidate and a non-LFI member of NFP? I suspect that the RN will make it to the second round in virtually every contest

[Epaminondas]

Does anyone think there will be ANY races where the second round run-off is between an LFI candidate and a non-LFI member of NFP? I suspect that the RN will make it to the second round in virtually every contest

11 of the 12 constituencies abroad will likely have no RN in the second round, with Israel the odd one out.

[Good Habit]

I'm not sure if it was out of inspiration from France or something else but presidential elections in Weimar Germany worked the same way - indeed, Paul von Hindenburg was not a candidate in the first round of 1925 (and of course was elected without receiving an absolute majority in the second round).

I don't think that Weimar Germany was inspired by the Third Republic... The Wilhemine Empire already elected the Reichstag in the same way - single member districts with two rounds, and probably open second rounds... And the same system is still used in many Swiss Cantons for local (and Ständerat / "Senate")  elections - although this are often multi seat races elected at large, there is sometimes only one seat left open after the first round, and occasionally entirely new candidates might run in the second... (So, the second round is in fact FPTP - but only happens, if not enough candidates cleared the threshold for direct election - and often, parties that are closer to each other try to avoid competition by some horse-trading / withdrawing candidates...)

[jaichind]

It seems Macron's strategy is

a) Push up the rhetoric so turnout is high which means as many as possible ENS candidates make it into the second round
b) Go all out in RN-LFI+-ENS second-round races but pull out in some races where non-LFI+NFP are in the fray in the second round in hopes of splitting the NFP between LFI+ and non-NFI+ voting blocs.  In other words, try to achieve between the two rounds what Marcon wanted when he called the election: An alliance between ENS and the non-LFI+ Center-Left.

Does anyone think there will be ANY races where the second round run-off is between an LFI candidate and a non-LFI member of NFP? I suspect that the RN will make it to the second round in virtually every contest

Sorry.  That was not what I meant.  I mean to convey that Macron hopes there will be a lot of RN-LFI-ENS second-round races where he will try to get the non-LFI Left to shift over to ENS.  The way he would try to trigger that move is that ENS will withdraw in a bunch of RN-Non-LFI NFP-ENS.  If these moves make the LFI and non-LFI angry with each other so much the better as that will only increase the shift of the non-LFI Left vote toward ENS in RN-LFI-ENS seats.

[DL]

I guess the question then is whether there are many seats where the NFP candidate is from FI (as opposed to PS or EELV) AND where EM's party is also in contention.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wild speculations about possible runoff configurations aside, we have some real data to chew on: proxy vote requests are now over 2 million, more than twice as much as last time. Hopefully a good sign for turnout, albeit also a sign that a lot of people are going to be away from their polling places.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The second debate has started. Like last time, Attal and Bardella are spending their whole speaking time talking over each other, which on the one hand sets them up at the main event of the night, but on the other hand it makes Faure look more dignified. So far it's hard to say how well he's doing, but I'd say he's coming off decent so far.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Debate's over. Every candidate more or less stuck to their talking points, but overall I'd say the dynamic was a lot more balanced, with Faure landing some good shots on both Attal and Bardella. Bardella was the one who could never shut up and constantly cut off the other two - I guess we'll see how that plays out with his voters. I think Faure easily won on the substance, but of course I'd say that. Still I doubt this moves many votes.

[Flyersfan232]

So how many win outright?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1806317338439852073

[Progressive Pessimist]

Macron is France's young, handsome Joe Biden.

That actually might be worse than being old Joe Biden...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron is France's young, handsome Joe Biden.

That actually might be worse than being old Joe Biden...

Biden supported bold policies to fight climate change, make ordinary Americans more financially secure and empower labor unions. Macron has done the opposite at every turn.

[Logical]

RN+UXD rising as the campaign heads to an end.


Ifop is now projecting that turnout in the Hexagonal will reach 67%, just a couple points lower than presidential election turnout.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Emmanuel Macron has done well by France", claims the Economist.

The thing is, however, most French people don't agree.

And ultimately in a democracy, the electorate is always right (even when, as on occasion, it is wrong)

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, one last map before the first round (and then between the two rounds I'll have to rush to make a bunch more in order to get a better sense of what to expect for the runoff). This one focuses on the prospects of the left, comparing who won in 2022 to the results of the EU elections a few weeks ago. Colors in the reds show safe incumbents, those in the purples show endangered ones, and oranges shows constituencies the left has decent chances to pick up based on their EU scores. Unsurprisingly, most of the endangered incumbents are threatened by the far-right, while most of the likely gains will come from formerly Macronist turf.



Safe incumbents: 85
- Definitely: 63
- Probably: 22

Defending incumbents: 70
- On the fence: 17
- Endangered: 40
- Critically endangered: 13

Pickup Opportunities: 114
- Likely: 14
- Possible: 51
- Longshots: 49

[Progressive Pessimist]

"Emmanuel Macron has done well by France", claims the Economist.

The thing is, however, most French people don't agree.

And ultimately in a democracy, the electorate is always right (even when, as on occasion, it is wrong)

Unless there's an Electoral College...it complicates things.

[PeteB]

For those in France, what is the realistic chance for Bardella's list to gain an absolute majority?

[Oryxslayer]

For those in France, what is the realistic chance for Bardella's list to gain an absolute majority?

Tomorrow we will be better equipped to answer this,  after understanding both the floor and the ceiling of possibilities. If both are high enough then such an outcome is very possible,  if not, then not.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

"Emmanuel Macron has done well by France", claims the Economist.

The thing is, however, most French people don't agree.

And ultimately in a democracy, the electorate is always right (even when, as on occasion, it is wrong)

Are Indians right regarding Congress having appeased favoured disadvantages castes and muslims for too long ? and the need to construct a new national identity on the basis of hindu nationalism ?. Are Americans right that the Biden administration hasn't been tough enough on asylum seekers, deporting illegal immigrants and that crime is at record highs(against the actual data showing it has fallen) ?


The primary political phenomena of the last 20 years has seen people voting less on concrete data and reality; and more on less tangible things like culture and identity. It's quite right to point out that the data disagrees with what a lot of people feel is happening. I'm a strong believer in democracy; ultimately the people deserve to choose how they are governed but that doesn't mean we have to pretend that people feelings are objective data or thy every choice they make is rational.

[YL]

"Emmanuel Macron has done well by France", claims the Economist.

The thing is, however, most French people don't agree.

And ultimately in a democracy, the electorate is always right (even when, as on occasion, it is wrong)

Macron strikes me as pretty much the Economist's ideal politician ideologically speaking, so it's hardly surprising that they like him.

But if the legacy of Macron's policies and his electoral strategy is the RN in power, it's hard to see how that is doing well by France even from the Economist's point of view.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg poll of polls